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Politics and Religion

Universal Basic Income
FatVern 262 reads
posted
1 / 24
Needed or not...

It's never going to happen.

marikod 1 Reviews 232 reads
posted
2 / 24
Nonsense. Your premise is wrong. We are not going to lose “massive jobs”

to automation and technology.

        Rather, automation/tech  causes a shift in jobs to areas where human skill is still required. Yes, tech has killed the career assembly line worker with a fat union contract and truck drivers will go as well if driver less vehicles become reality. But this is good -time for them to become skilled workers.

        You need to look at “net jobs” not the loss of jobs in an outdated industry.

         The Labor Department job opening index hit a near historic high -not low- this year –near 5.7 million -  and unemployment has moved steadily down during the Obama administration. Most important of all, the number of unemployed per job opening is back to where it was before the 2008 recession.

Recessions kill net jobs- not technology.

          If technology hasn’t killed meaningful net jobs in the past 20 years, it is utter speculation that there will be a meaningful jump in the foreseeable  future. Tech’s role is to take over the unskilled labor market and provide an incentive for those workers to become skilled workers – not to create a need for “universal income” aka “massive tax increase” aka welfare

JackDunphy 281 reads
posted
3 / 24
"If?" If driverless vehicles become reality???

It has already happened counselor. You need to get out more.

Of course technology will hurt jobs. The only question is how soon and how large the damage will be.

What do you propose the now 40 year old UPS driver to do when he loses his job in 5-10 years due to a driverless vehicle? What "skilled" work would you like him to get? Rocket scientist?

It isn't just trucking, but cab driving, crews on ships, etc along with a whole host of many other occupations are at risk. One study put 47% of all jobs at risk in 20 years time:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/17/rise-of-the-machines-economist_n_4616931.html

And please stop with the bogus unemployment rate going down. You know, or should know that that is due to non-skilled jobs replacing skilled ones in the service area primarily and people who have stopped looking for work.
Related Link: http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/a21542/2020-rolls-royce-autonomous-ships/

marikod 1 Reviews 260 reads
posted
4 / 24
Always a good idea to actually read your links before you post

“One study put 47% of all jobs at risk in 20 years time:”

Um …no.
 
          Had you actually read your link, you would have noticed that the headline “47%
Of all jobs will be automated by 2034” is not even supported by the Huffpo article which reports only that the Economist said that “Almost half of all jobs COULD  be automated by computers within two decades…”  

       In other words, all the Huffpo writer has said is it’s “possible” that all jobs will be at risk in 20 years.  Jack, it is “possible” that the next lady you see will give it to you for free. Get the picture?

      And the Economist did not even say “all jobs” at all. It said

"One recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that 47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades.

        So the actual study is talking about “todays jobs,” not “all jobs” in 2047 – which is exactly the point I made: tech will create new jobs – as it always does - and shift these workers to new jobs or old jobs requiring actual skills.

     As for driverless vehicles, I predict that global warming will get us before you see driverless tractor trailers cruising down I 95.

       But you have convinced me of one thing - we need to automate your posts ASAP.  

Please

JackDunphy 304 reads
posted
5 / 24
How will tech create jobs for non skilled workers?

You completely dodged the main point. There is no longer an even flow of jobs lost vs jobs gained from tech so maybe it is you that needs to read my linked articles more closely?

You just dont snap your finger and a truck driver works in IT. But you live in the theoretical world and i live in the real
one. LOL

Can you address my question now without bringing in your utopia of magically transforming an uneducated, unskilled worker into a highly qualified college graduate with skills to match the modern economy?

ed2000 31 Reviews 366 reads
posted
6 / 24
We already have a UBI, but it is situated in several dozen formats.

We already have a UBI, but it is situated in several dozen formats of various means tested programs. If they could be unified it would be far more efficient in terms of federal, state and local government spending, as long as it also reduced the incentives for individuals to reduce their personal productivity; or at least not increase it. That’s the utopian vision. I’d be in favor of some kind of plan that actually increased and enforced some minimum level of personal productivity.

Technology shift example? Communications used to employ almost a half million people (almost all women) as telephone operators. They evaporated. Our future problem is not automation per se, it is the accelerating rate of automation.

We are nowhere close now but at some point in the future people’s essential needs and most leisure desires will be available at a very small fraction of GDP, assuming the natural resources are still readily available. I compare my childhood where we were considered very middle class (even a bit upper middle class) yet our standard of living as measured today would be considered at a fairly low poverty level. Discretionary spending capital is by far more readily available today. I decent way to measure this is to examine how hard a person must work (or how many hours) in order to obtain various essential and non-essential items. Housing is always a bit of an exception compared to consumables because land area is fixed. Although I think the quality of housing for the same percentage of income has steadily increased. But food for example now only consumes about one-third as much income as in the first half of the 20th century.  

Global warming will “get us”. You’ve joined the Wicked Brut team I see. If global temperature resume the recent warming trend it will actually create jobs. Do you think possibly enough people will flee the planet along with Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking to lighten the impact? It only makes sense that the standard of living on Mars or somewhere similar will be so much better than a few degrees warmer here. I dare say it will be far easier to migrant millions of people and agriculture to different latitudes than to go to places where the temperatures are dozens or hundreds of degrees different and you have to actually manufacture all of your breathable oxygen. Oxygen? One natural resource that as of yet does not require a public utility to create, control and distribute

voyager-43 11 Reviews 163 reads
posted
7 / 24
Jobs problem

of course some jobs are going to be lost to automation and robotics. This is a given. If people think that all those manufacturing jobs that will be coming back to the US will be 1 for 1 for those China and Mexico will lose don't understand the future. Driving jobs will dwindle away and some day disappear entirely as driverless cars and trucks become universal. What you aren't seeing is the new industries that will appear. When the automobile made it's debut, few people thought that horse drawn buggies and wagons would go away. When computers became commonplace how many could see the end of bookkeeper jobs among many others?  What happened to all those ladies that worked for AT&T running switchboards to connect telephone calls?  Some jobs will disappear, many more will be invented. It is called progress.

St. Croix 164 reads
posted
8 / 24
I guess the 40 year old UPS driver is yesterday's Pony Express rider

If he doesn't reinvent himself, well he probably is fucked. Maybe the Pony Express rider got a job with the train or telegraph company, or sat in saloon and drank whiskey and fucked whores until he either died relatively early from an STD or in a gunfight.  

We really do have the most dynamic economy in the world. Industries, companies, employees disappear all the time, only to be replaced by new industries and new companies. The 40 year old you are talking about is probably on the cusp. Yeah, Baby Boomers are probably fucked. They are too old to adapt and reinvent themselves. Just look at this board as a representative example of Baby Boomers. Would you hire any of them? Of course you wouldn't. They'd bitch about something everyday. On the other hand, Millennials learn, adapt and change better than any previous generation. We are not in a GM world anymore.
Posted By: JackDunphy
You completely dodged the main point. There is no longer an even flow of jobs lost vs jobs gained from tech so maybe it is you that needs to read my linked articles more closely?  
   
 You just dont snap your finger and a truck driver works in IT. But you live in the theoretical world and i live in the real  
 one. LOL  
   
 Can you address my question now without bringing in your utopia of magically transforming an uneducated, unskilled worker into a highly qualified college graduate with skills to match the modern economy?

ed2000 31 Reviews 220 reads
posted
9 / 24
Hey! I resent that claim.

Posted By: St. Croix
Just look at this board as a representative example of Baby Boomers. Would you hire any of them? Of course you wouldn't. They'd bitch about something everyday.
My boss is almost begging me to not retire. As a baby boomer engineer I realize I'm a bit unique, but it's almost impossible to find graduates with any sort of background skills so they can be trained in what I do. And my type of job is not going anywhere. You are correct though that Millennials and Gen Xers are in general more flexible. They are also more naive and more demanding (less flexible) in some ways.

My hope is for an even more dynamic economy. Certain government regulations need to be rethought. As a small example, I recently met a local real estate appraiser. We live in an area that was not at all affected by the 2008 bubble, not locally anyway. Yet, he claims that Dodd-Frank increased their overhead expenses by at least 30%.

marikod 1 Reviews 307 reads
posted
10 / 24
The next recession will be caused when rising tides and storm surges

ruin the value of Florida ocean front and other coastal  real estate. (that is assuming Trump does not sink us by himself). If you think your mortgage was “under water” in 2008, wait till you see what happens to any real estate that lies below sea level. That is what I mean by global warning “getting us” before Jack’s driverless  trucks become a commercial reality (driverless in the sense of no one in the cab at all- that will never happen).

    Oh, it will create new jobs all right but buyers are already asking about this before they buy.

       As to universal basic income, I agree we already have programs that provide a small amount –welfare on the low end and social security on the high end - but nowhere near a living wage. But why in the world do you say  

        If they could be unified it would be far more efficient in terms of federal, state and local government spending, as long as it also reduced the incentives for individuals to reduce their personal productivity; or at least not increase it.

I don’t follow your point here at all and our programs are set up in the complete opposite fashion. Once your income rises you phase out of welfare, or even ACA subsidies for that matter. If you take early SS and keep working they suspend payments if you make more that $15,000 a year. I guess that provides some incentive to reduce personal productivity but if you can make more than your pay out why do that? Can't see that as "utopian," except in Atlas Shrugged.

 
BTW where is John Galt when we need him

JackDunphy 348 reads
posted
11 / 24
Remember, your experience with millenials and mine is vastly different.

The ones I know would love the guaranteed income as long as they dont have to do shit to get it. Lol

Ed touched on it as well as the article i cited but the technology advancements to kill good jobs is outweighing the ability for the tech to create new ones. Thats the problem. The author points out that the trend started to go in the wring direction in the 90's and will only get worse.

But what I really wonder is if Mari will still be saying its "impossible" as he steps off his driverless cab and the UPS drone is waiting for him with his extra cheese pizza from Pizza Hut. Lol

 



-- Modified on 12/26/2016 7:13:23 PM

St. Croix 325 reads
posted
12 / 24
ed2000 - your boss just called regarding a new project

You are going to lead a team to design, develop and implement a key enhancement to Instagram. You have 1 year to complete this project. You will lead a team of 8 individuals. Functional and technical knowledge of Instagram is not mandatory. You must pick between 2 teams. Team 1 will consist of Baby Boomers that populate TER's P&R Board. They are:

FatVern, followme, Laffy, brooks5, JakeFromStateFarm, bigguy30, BigPapasan, & marikod. They are a nice mix of lefties, righties, and maybe one middle of the road. A representative example of baby boomers in general, wouldn't you say. No I didn't add any women for the obvious reasons (hint - productivity). And yes, your boss is OK with you installing a metal detector to the entrance of their work area.  

 
Team 2 will also consist of 8 team members. You will travel to downtown San Francisco. You go to Union Square,  Nob Hill, Mission District. Basically any area that has a lot of foot traffic during the day. You have 5 minutes to select 8 individuals that appear to be 30 years of age or younger. No background checks allowed. What you see is what you get.

ed2000....what your selection, a team of baby boomers or millennials

stucaboy 172 reads
posted
13 / 24
How about a driverless Brinx truck? eom


END OF MESSAGE

ed2000 31 Reviews 308 reads
posted
14 / 24
Your supposition of creating a recession is totally hyper reactionary.

It's as if you think rising sea levels will strike like a tsunami. Even if it happens it will take decades of comparatively slow rates (at least measured on an annual basis) to do the amount of damage you speak about. Gore and his compatriots has been exaggerating very much thus far. Given the uncertainty the experts put to the timeline, they are far less certain what efforts and cost are required to stem or even slow the rate; or even if we can. Wouldn't all that money be better spent towards mitigating the future effects?

Why in the world did I say it? Let's take a line form the recent Jerry Lewis Hollywood Reporter interview (catch it it you haven't already). . . . because it is true. There are dozens and dozens of agencies all doing the same basic thing. In a Utopian world, people would do productive things without external motivation. UBI accomplishes just the opposite. My point is, maybe someday near star date 2316.1202 when everyone's needs are met by spending only 2% of GDP. . . .

I too miss John.

ed2000 31 Reviews 226 reads
posted
15 / 24
I'm not disputing your general claim. I just resented being lumped in with them.

I would actually accept the challenge, although your example reflects the vast misconception that almost everything revolves around web apps. For the longest time EE grads were only required to learn Java and maybe some SQL and it's not getting much better. Just try to find a skilled C++ or even C# programmer that can think outside of the port 80 box.

Right now I would be forced by my superiors to offshore most your work to our R&D facility in India. Half my time would be wasted trying to get them to understand and reluctantly accept the North American nuances required that are unacceptable in the ROW. After 6 months or so of failure I would out of necessity outsource the project to one of a couple of fluid engineering firms here in the U.S. where they actually do have a couple of baby boomers remaining that still know the difference between an asynchronous RS-485 port, a LON protocol and a CAN protocol; not that those are penitent to your project but they are important to my business

marikod 1 Reviews 280 reads
posted
16 / 24
You are thinking like a scientist instead of an economist

The economic effects of rising sea levels will greatly precede the actual sea surge.:  

 
“Much of the uncertainty surrounding climate change focuses on the pace of the rise in sea levels. But some argue that this misses the point because property values will probably go under water long before the properties themselves do.
What is often called “nuisance” flooding — inundation caused more by tides than weather — is already affecting property values. Often just a foot or two deep, this type of flooding can stop traffic, swamp basements, damage cars and contaminate groundwater.”

 
        Mortgage underwriting looks 30 years out. The first time a bank refuses to lend for a Miami oceanfront property everyone’s property value goes down. Meanwhile, flood insurance  premiums go up, fewer buyers appear, and the value of mortgage backed securities begins to fall – sound familiar? Only this time they will never recover.

       I gather you don’t read the NYT or you would know what I am talking about – it was a major story last month.  Gore is old news - this is based on current data
Related Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/science/global-warming-coastal-real-estate.html?_r=0

ed2000 31 Reviews 238 reads
posted
17 / 24
I agree that most economists are full of shit.

I've already reached my quota for NYT and I refuse to pay for their opinions, but you have NAILED the global warming playbook, when the old data no longer works then get new data.

BTW, I thought mortgage underwriting only looked out far enough until the paper was repackaged and sold off to the next sucker. Are you saying that's not happening anymore?

FatVern 102 reads
posted
18 / 24
I'm not a baby boomer...

I'm just as bright as one. lol

Posted By: St. Croix
You are going to lead a team to design, develop and implement a key enhancement to Instagram. You have 1 year to complete this project. You will lead a team of 8 individuals. Functional and technical knowledge of Instagram is not mandatory. You must pick between 2 teams. Team 1 will consist of Baby Boomers that populate TER's P&R Board. They are:  
   
 FatVern, followme, Laffy, brooks5, JakeFromStateFarm, bigguy30, BigPapasan, & marikod. They are a nice mix of lefties, righties, and maybe one middle of the road. A representative example of baby boomers in general, wouldn't you say. No I didn't add any women for the obvious reasons (hint - productivity). And yes, your boss is OK with you installing a metal detector to the entrance of their work area.  
   
   
 Team 2 will also consist of 8 team members. You will travel to downtown San Francisco. You go to Union Square,  Nob Hill, Mission District. Basically any area that has a lot of foot traffic during the day. You have 5 minutes to select 8 individuals that appear to be 30 years of age or younger. No background checks allowed. What you see is what you get.  
   
 ed2000....what your selection, a team of baby boomers or millennials?  
   
 

JackDunphy 370 reads
posted
19 / 24
Always a good idea to actually read your links before you post.

Had you actually read your link, you would have noticed that the headline said "Perils of Climate
Change COULD Swamp Coastal Real Estate."

In other words, all the NY Times writer has said is it’s “possible” that climate change would damage coastal real estate.  Mari, it is “possible” that the next lady you see will give it to you for free. Get the picture? ;)

mrhuck 15 Reviews 266 reads
posted
20 / 24
Re: Jobs problem,what would happen if...

...the length of the hourly work week were used to control the rate of employment? 40 hrs. as a base & less as man hrs. of needed labor dropped,would that not stabilize employment & lessen the amount of training needed for workers who have been displaced.

followme 210 reads
posted
21 / 24
Re: Actually driverless is nothing new…..

LTM, tc30 aka fg, brokebackstabber cheesy and a few others have had a driverless mind for many, many years

brooks5 51 reads
posted
22 / 24
lib preemptive whining

libs are so stupid that they have to plan to be losers

it's a lifestyle ;)

that they want someone else to pay for

consistent for LTFM, eh? ;)

mrhuck 15 Reviews 187 reads
posted
23 / 24
Re: Jobs problem,what would happen if...

...Typical b5 answer unable to come up with an intelligent come-back all he has is a cheap insult.

voyager-43 11 Reviews 291 reads
posted
24 / 24
Re: Jobs problem,what would happen if...

Correct me if I misinterpret your premise. Your answer to unemployment is to create part-time jobs and employ more people that basically job share. And, how do these part time jobs support families?  Pay more per hour or have the government subsidize paychecks?  Let's see. More part time jobs, people having to find extra jobs to take home enough pay to support their families. Yes, unemployment rate goes down. We have seen this with the current feckless administration. So, your plan is continue what hasn't worked for the past 8 years?  Apparently, you are one of those folks that still don't understand why Trump was elected.  
Basic question.  Why is manipulating the unemployment rate important?  If people can't support their families, no one cares what the government statisticians say.

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