Politics and Religion

Re: I’ve been seeing this more and more.
lester_prairie 12 Reviews 37 reads
posted

500 registered voters.  They should be doing likely voters at this stage. 500 is a small sample size.  Rasmussen uses about 1500 LV in his polls.  He uses D+2.

RespectfulRobert194 reads

TERRIBLE news for Trump again!
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From The Bullfinch Group:
Wisconsin Kamala +9
Michigan Kamala +6
PA Kamala +4
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This polling validates The NY Times polls from last week. Trump is sinking fast. Willy will update that map of his very soon to show Kamala in the lead overall I am sure!

-- Modified on 8/12/2024 3:54:23 PM

Go into the details of the poll.  

 
http://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66ba4069b73a13894a56414d_Independent%20Center%20-%20Battleground%20States%20Poll%202024.pdf

 
The poll had +2 more people responding as “Very Democratic” vs “Very Republican”. But more importantly, the poll over sampled women by +4.  

 
I think Hispanics and Asians were under sampled as well, but I only know the national averages, not the averages in those states.  

 
I discovered this earlier with a Financial Times poll that found Kamala had a +1 in “trust on the economy”. Look into the poll details and you find they over sampled Democrats by +4.

RespectfulRobert39 reads

A guy who had RFK Jr leading in a bunch of states is smarter about polling than 538, the RCP, NY Times, the Bullfinch Group, etc. And you wonder why people think you are a troll? lol
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Btw when is the new map coming out? We just cant wait any longer! lol.

They’re always middle of the month on Tuesday. Last month was skipped because of the assassination attempt and Harris joining the race.

500 registered voters.  They should be doing likely voters at this stage. 500 is a small sample size.  Rasmussen uses about 1500 LV in his polls.  He uses D+2.

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