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Politics and Religion

Can polls scream with inaccuracy?
willywonka4u 22 Reviews 135 reads
posted

So I haven’t looked closely at the polls in a few weeks. But I was looking at the polls in Michigan and I was reminded about something interesting I learned years ago.

 
How do we know carbon dating is accurate? If we test something and it’s 2.5 million years old, how do we know it’s accurate? Obviously no one has been around 2.5 million years to double check.  

 
Well we can check on a shorter time scale and extrapolate from there. And we have multiple different methods for testing. Entirely different approaches using entirely different technologies.  

 
So what happens when we do that? We get the same answer. Multiple different technologies that tell you it’s 2.5 million years old. Different technologies, same answer.  

 
With that in mind let’s take a look at the polls in Michigan, via 538.  

 
Trafalgar, Trump/Harris tied 47%
CNN Harris 48%, Trump 43%
Glengariff Trump 45%, Harris 44%
Redfield & Wilton Harris 47% Trump 44%
Emerson Harris 51%, Trump 48%
Activote Trump/Harris 50/50
Z to A Research Trump/Harris 47/47
Morning Consult 4 separate polls, Harris +2
EPIC-MRA, 2 polls, Trump +1
TIPP, Harris +2

 
We aren’t even getting the same answer, to such a degree that we don’t know who is in the lead. The CNN poll is the most obvious outlier. 3 polls are tied. All others show +1 to +2 for either candidate. So can anyone say either candidate is ahead in Michigan?

RespectfulRobert31 reads

Btw, take a look at the rating 538 gives Trafalgar. lol. They are a right wing joke. Shhhh...dont tell Lester. He cant handle the truth.

Related Link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/michigan/

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coeur-de-lion29 reads

if her Radical Islamic followers actually go to the polls and vote.  The ones that are citizens, that is.    

 
At the same time, Trump will be reminding the auto industry that if they vote for Kamala, their jobs will be heading to China, so be prepared for many of the rank-and-file union voters to jump ship on their leadership.  

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lester_prairie28 reads

Unfortunately union voters aren't the brightest bulbs.  Look how many union industries have disappeared because of strikes and political policies they've voted for.  They call it the rust belt because unions drove out the manufacturing industries.

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RespectfulRobert32 reads

Nice too see you admit Trump is failing. You never do so I will give you props.

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inicky4630 reads

And their union President spoke at the DNC for Harris.
PS: Although the unions were certainly partly to blame in auto jobs going abroad, it also has just a bit to do with the Japanese, Germans and Koreans beating us at our own game.

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lester_prairie29 reads

I blame the auto companies as well.  They made cheap junk and got their asses whipped by the Japs.  

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coeur-de-lion26 reads

Biden thought he had once been an auto worker, just like when he thought he had once driven a truck for a living.  

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inicky4624 reads

When will you be releasing your pre-election poll from your Mexican maids? Also the survey based on your local store windows? Those were fun.

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