Politics and Religion

oddschecker
coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 273 reads
posted
1 / 7

Gallup poll says 90% of Americans are satisfied with their personal life.  That's going to translate into a lot of Dem votes for Trump in November.  

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 17 reads
posted
2 / 7

Oddschecker says Trump has a 60% chance of getting re-elected.  Sanders, next highest, is at 17%.

inicky46 61 Reviews 16 reads
posted
3 / 7

I mean, I can see why someone who's already made up his mind would use this to make a point but has anyone EVER proven a tangible correlation between such a poll and voting preference?
I doubt it.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 9 reads
posted
4 / 7

Actually I am not a gambler so don't know what odds surveys are useful for.  Can you place bets now for future events?  Is there a benefit for being right sooner?

GaGambler 26 reads
posted
5 / 7

As an example, several months ago I suggested two long shots for POTUS that I thought "might" be worth a shot. One of those potential candidates was Michael Bloomberg who's odds at the time of winning the Oval office were 200-1, The other was Howard Schultz who was going off at the same odds  of 200-1.  

 
Fast forward to today. The CURRENT odds for Bloomberg to win have fallen to 8-1. So yes there can DEFINITELY be a benefit to being right sooner. Now OTOH, if you had bet on Biden early you might have gotten 4-1 on your money, those odds are now 14-1 as his prospects along with his popularity have plunged.

 
Another example is Donald Trump, early on he was a 100-1 longshot, by eve of the election the odds had fallen to 7-2, which were about the same odds as Mitt Romney was against Obama on election eve back in 2012, the big difference of course being that Donald Trump beat the odds where as Mitt Romney ran a horrible campaign and deservedly lost to a very vulnerable Obama.

lester_prairie 12 Reviews 11 reads
posted
6 / 7

So it's pretty much like any investment.  

Reminds me that FiveThirtyEight had Hillary probability of winning at about 80% halfway through election night.  I remember watching in real-time as their graph started its nose dive.

coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 15 reads
posted
7 / 7

of the football season, the odds of KC winning the super bowl were 12 to 1,  but a week before the super bowl game the odds were slightly less than 1 to 1.

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