Politics and Religion

More good news for Trump . . .
coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 272 reads
posted

Gallup poll says 90% of Americans are satisfied with their personal life.  That's going to translate into a lot of Dem votes for Trump in November.  

Oddschecker says Trump has a 60% chance of getting re-elected.  Sanders, next highest, is at 17%.

I mean, I can see why someone who's already made up his mind would use this to make a point but has anyone EVER proven a tangible correlation between such a poll and voting preference?
I doubt it.

Actually I am not a gambler so don't know what odds surveys are useful for.  Can you place bets now for future events?  Is there a benefit for being right sooner?

As an example, several months ago I suggested two long shots for POTUS that I thought "might" be worth a shot. One of those potential candidates was Michael Bloomberg who's odds at the time of winning the Oval office were 200-1, The other was Howard Schultz who was going off at the same odds  of 200-1.  

 
Fast forward to today. The CURRENT odds for Bloomberg to win have fallen to 8-1. So yes there can DEFINITELY be a benefit to being right sooner. Now OTOH, if you had bet on Biden early you might have gotten 4-1 on your money, those odds are now 14-1 as his prospects along with his popularity have plunged.

 
Another example is Donald Trump, early on he was a 100-1 longshot, by eve of the election the odds had fallen to 7-2, which were about the same odds as Mitt Romney was against Obama on election eve back in 2012, the big difference of course being that Donald Trump beat the odds where as Mitt Romney ran a horrible campaign and deservedly lost to a very vulnerable Obama.

So it's pretty much like any investment.  

Reminds me that FiveThirtyEight had Hillary probability of winning at about 80% halfway through election night.  I remember watching in real-time as their graph started its nose dive.

of the football season, the odds of KC winning the super bowl were 12 to 1,  but a week before the super bowl game the odds were slightly less than 1 to 1.

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