Nuguy read this and weep!  

There are two things to know about polls. First, the larger the sample, the more accurate it is. When you average polls together, you get a more accurate result. That is why I look at sites that do exactly that. Nate Silver's 538, Electon Projection dot org, etc.

The second to know about polls is that we don't elect Presidents by popular vote. We elect Presidents by the electoral college.

Therefore, you can get a very accurate look at how things look just by looking at the the average of polls in the swing states. The only question in my mind is whether Obama will win with more than 300 electoral votes or not. I think he'll probably win with about 303.

I would also note that the media has a lot of money vested in the horse race. Politicians buy ads in the news media. This is where the news media gets a ton of it's revenue these days. The more they can say a race is close, the more ads it convinces politicians to buy, and the more revenue they will get. That is why the news media will not often talk about the reality of the points I raised above. If they talked about it more, they'd get less money.

The fact of the matter is that the only states that are close are Colorado and Virginia. Every other state is solidly Democratic or Republican.

After the election, we will have more Dems in Congress, but not enough to take the House. The Dems will take perhaps a half dozen extra seats. The Dems will keep the Senate. Obama will win the White House. The GOP will win more Governorships. But all in all, things will be the same after the election just as it is now.

-- Modified on 10/25/2012 6:53:49 AM

I said that to get under Mr nuguys skin. Romney will probably win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College vote to Obama.

One prominent scenario that is the focus of a "hanging chad" analysis is in Ohio.

Nightmare scenarios haunt election season
http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20121019/NEWS03/310199985/1006/news

"269-269 Electoral College tie is unlikely but far from impossible. It could result, for instance, if Romney wins all the competitive states except Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. There has never been an Electoral College tie.

But that isn’t the only nightmare scenario that could raise doubts about the election’s fairness.

Campaign activists in many states are bracing for possible confusion, delays and even confrontations in polling places Nov. 6. They are particularly watching Democratic-leaning precincts where Republicans may challenge some people’s eligibility to vote.

In recent years, Republican officials in several states have pushed for tighter voter restrictions, including requirements for photo identifications and reductions in the amount of time allowed for early voting. Republicans say they are trying to prevent voter fraud.

Democrats, however, note the absence of proven cases of serious election fraud. They say the GOP actions are meant to suppress voting by Democratic-leaning groups such as blacks, Hispanics, low-income people and college students."



Presidential race could hinge on Ohio's delayed provisional ballots

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20121025/NEWS0106/310250024/Presidential-race-could-hinge-Ohio-s-delayed-provisional-ballots

"Under Secretary of State Jon Husted’s initiative to send absentee ballot applications to nearly 7 million registered voters across Ohio, more than 800,000 people so far have asked for but not yet completed an absentee ballot for the Nov. 6 election.
Anyone who does not return an absentee ballot, deciding instead to vote at the polls, will be required to cast a provisional ballot. That’s so officials may verify that they did not vote absentee and also show up at the polls.
By state law, provisional ballots may not be counted until at least Nov. 17. That means that if Ohio’s electoral votes would be decisive in the race between President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the state could keep the nation in suspense for several weeks after the election."

"That would be called my nightmare scenario,” said Amy Searcy, director of the Hamilton County Board of Elections.
But it is also, election experts warn, a distinctly possible scenario if the vote in Ohio – and nationwide – is close.
“We could easily see a situation in which the nation has to wait for Ohio because of provisionals,” said Ed Foley, an Ohio State University law professor and nationally respected expert on election law. “We ought to start thinking about those what-if scenarios now rather than the Wednesday morning after the election.”

The fairness police.

ALL polls show RR lead WIDENING.
Enjoy your last few days on the board libtards...suspect come Nov 7 you'll be doing something else.

Obama has new ad with 537-vote deficit that ultimately won for George W. Bush

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/24/obama-ad-uses-ghost-of-recount-past/

But y'all said Gore had the election stolen from him by Bush

crowds at RR events are overwhelming the facilities..Red Rock in Colorado caused HUGE traffic jams.

Contrast the Obama crowds....they have to BUS in PAID folks to even make a small dent in the facility.......what does this mean???

......scientist to figure this out.