Nate Silver gives Obama a 97.9% chance of winning Michigan. A 97.9% chance of winning Minnesota. And a 95.4% chance of winning Pennsylvania.
The Minnesota polling average is 50.3% Obama, 43.5% Romney. The Michigan polling average is 49.0% Obama, 43.8% Romney. The polling average for Pennsylvania is 49.0% Obama, 44.2% Romney.
I should note that elections have never swung to the losing guy if he's losing by more than 3% of the polling average vote.
Furthermore, Obama has continually been doing better in the polls since the first debate. Nate Silver is now giving Obama a 77.4% chance of winning with less than a week to go.
The biggest surprise to me is that it appears that Obama has solidified his lead in Colorado and Virginia, and is gaining ground quickly in Florida. I figured that the likelihood of Obama winning Florida was slim, but it beginning to look like he might barely win it. If that's the case, then I will be wrong that Obama wins with 303 electoral votes. Instead he'll win with 332.
Maybe the fact that Obama's shown that he knows how to handle the wreckage of a hurricane has changed a few minds in Florida.
Face it, Romney is toast. Stop getting your hopes up. He's already lost.
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