Below is the current RCP aggregate numbers for post debate, multi candidate polls: . Arizona Trump +1.4 Nevada Harris +2.0 Wisconsin Harris +1.9 Michigan Harris +1.7 PA Harris +2.2 NC Trump +0.5 Georgia Trump +1.0 . The above is why I think Kamala is leading this race and most likely will win. She leads in larger numbers in states she needs than Trump does in states he needs. She is VERY competitive in GA and NC, where he is less competitive in the Blue Wall states of the Great Lakes. Of course none of the above is guaranteed by any means, and either candidate could still win, but I like our chances better than Trump's at the moment.
Nevada, Arizona goes red. Maybe New Mexico. Colorado stays blue, as does Minnesota. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania goes to Trump. Georgia goes to Trump. Virginia might go to Trump, but it will be close. North Carolina is a big question mark now after the hurricane. Maine is going for Trump. New Jersey and New Hampshire, who knows, but it’s a possibility. And New York might even go Trump.
Regardless, we will know the election is over the second Kamala loses pretty much any of these states. Even with the skewed polling, she’s behind in most if not all of them.
was a huge mistake. It just shows that the Dem elites know what a disaster the border is and are retaliating against him for making a public issue of it last year. I don't think NY will go red, other blue states will as you suggest, but NY will be closer than anyone thinks. It will be a night of surprises.
It is really hard for me to give an accurate reading on WI because I live in a rural area that leans very red. College towns (my closest would be Stevens Point) are going to be more blue as well as the more populated areas of Madison and Milwaukee. I always vote Libertarian because I like to throw my vote away, so there's that. I want cannabis legalized and sex work decriminalized and both are going to be state issues, not federal. It is really going to come down to the hot topics of abortion and immigration. Those two will be the deciding factors on the presidential level. Mark my words.
illegal immigration are more important in the minds of voters than abortion. Most female voters are smart enough to realize that this is now a State issue and if they are overly concerned, or live in a state they find too restrictive, they can move to a place that gives them inner peace on this subject. If illegal immigration continues for another four years, more women will be getting abortions because they cannot afford to feed any more mouths than their family already has because government benefits that help single moms are being diverted to support illegals, just like the FEMA money that has been misappropriated by the Biden/Harris administration.
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