Biden said in a recent speech that six months after Obama takes office, he will be severely tested by a foreign power. My question is, who will it be? Think we should start an office pool, $1.00 per guess. xfean can hold the money.....NOT.

That's a counry that has preserved its race, more so than any other.  So those racists are the obvious choice.

Chavez, Putin, Kim, and Ahmadinejad, I would say it's a toss up between Chavez and Putin. I know that Putin should be the odds on favorite considering what's going on in Georgia right now, but somehow I think that Chavez might beat him to the punch.

This is sad that here we are a couple of weeks from the election making book on what "President Obama" is going to do. I sure hope it's a moot exercise, but I for one am getting my finances in order in preparation of a long four years.

Putin can instigate a major crisis easily.  Russia has the same claims on all the former republics that it had on George, namely that there were many "ethnic" Russians living there that need to be protected.  There are Russians in the Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States, Hungary, and - to show you how old I am - Czechoslovakia (I know its two countries now, but force of habit makes me think one.)

Ethnic Russians can stir up a crisis in any of these places, and Putin will go in to respond.  It would be as if Mexico could claim a right to invade any place in the U.S. where a lot of Mexicans were living.

All the countries that looked to the U.S. will now see if they could rely on us when push came to shove.

Ahmadinejad's ability depends on how far they are with their nukes.  The rest of his ability depends on how much he wants to support people in other countries, like Iraq, or other organizations like Hamas.

He may want to use Hamas, since Obama has a history of associating with groups that are "sympathetic" to Hamas.  This creates a question of what will Obama do with Hamas.  Will Obama return to his original associates or remain in his current position?

Obama said that if Iraq deteriorates after he starts withdrawing troops, Obama would return them to Iraq to ensure stability. If Ahmadinajad pours operatives into Iraq, Obama will have to beef up forces, since he already said he wouldn't let it go to hell.

Now that we are so close to winning in Iraq, or appear to be, if Obama loses Iraq the Dems will look terrible.  

(If that happens Obama is in danger of losing his base and ending up in a ranch in Texas with a pair of beagals.  I have to say irony can have a touch of black humor.)

Chavez is more of a fly in the ointment.  He can do little things, but cutting of the flow of oil hurts him more that it will hurt us.

Kim is too local.  Also, if his health is bad, he may be limited and N. Korea may be limited.

My nineteen year old secretary had never heard of such a place. lol

The one thing you overlook about Chavez is his willingness to push the envelope. His saber rattling with Uribe is a prime example. Venezuela gets most of it's food from Colombia, but that didn't stop Chavez from massing thousands of troops at their border im am act of "solidarity" with Ecuador and the FARC.

You are right to point out that Chavez would hurt himself more than us if he were to interupt oil sales, but the fly in that ointment is China. China would love to have access to South American oil. If China cuts a deal with Chavez all bets are off, He could become a very, very dangerous man overnight.

All that said, Putin is still the odds on favorite, I just wouldn't count Hugo out yet. After all the OP said "first" one to test Obama, and Chavez has already proven he is willing to test us, even with a war mongering Republican in the White House.

When I was a Soviet Studies major, my professors were the last generation of the old Czarist "White" Russians.  I never heard them say "Lenengrad," since they always said "Petersberg."  

I wanted to grab them by the throat and shout, "It is Lenengrad. I has been Lenengrad for the last 40 years. It will be Lenegrad for the next 100 years."

Calmer emotions prevailed and I remained silent and mildly amused at how out of touch they were. Now, I still think "Lenengrad," and fear some brash young person will grab me by the throat and shout, "It is Petersberg. It has been Petersberg for the last 15 years."

You were a Soviet Studies major?  You may want to research the history of that city ...

here's a link that may help
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg

They've been laying low for awhile now. Gathering thier resources. Biding thier time. Many of my partners are reporting huge amounts of money in the hands of Russian insiders. They aint po' no mo'.

My vote is Putin.

I predict they will continue to push us. The battle will mostly likey be over newly revealed resources uncovered in the Arctic by global warming. Russia already has a flag thier thier flag thier claiming it. Of course we claim it too as do 4 other bordering nations giving ne meaning to the term "cold war". The UN has rejected Russia's initial claim.  

What do I call myself now?

Before the Soviets, it was Petersburg. The Soviets changed it to Lenegrad, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union it went back to   Petersberg.

In the 70's when I was a student, my professors were the last of the old white Russians, and their families still called it Petersberg.  Being anti-Soviet, they would never say the name of a city named after Lenin.  Today there are many Vietnamese in California who will not say, "Ho Chi Minh City." Same thing.

I thought it was funny because the name had changed in the mid-20's and they hadn't gotten used to it. That is why I imagined confronting them with it.

The irony is that I now find myself in the same boat, thinking Lenengrad, because that was the term I used for years.  It is like when a family member changes his name.

Does that explain it?

PS I don't need  Wikipedia  as I have been to both Lenegrad (in 1976) and Petersberg (in 1992).

I am part Russian, German, French.

I call myself an American.

So do I. If you were born in this country you are "American" not African American, not Asian American, just plain old "American" Works for me.

Been there when it was Leningrad and again to St.Petersburg. Didn't change much. The Hermitage is an excellent museum.

and half water, lol.

What will Obama do?  Back up Israel?  Let them fight it out amongst themselves?  I'm betting Obama will doing the latter.  Neutrality in a Middle East nuclear exchange will result in dominoes crashing... first Israel and Iran, then Russia jumping in to aid Iran, and possibly China. So any test facing the next President will lead to progressivley worse scenarios and tests.  

At least with a warmongering president, Israel knew where she stood, and Iran knows where they stand. The U.S. has leverage on Israel because she knows we'll back her up if Iran starts something.  Once Israel realizes that she's on her own under an Obama administration, all hell will break loose.  My prediction anyway.

Another scenario that I don't even want to think about.

If anything close to this comes about; Pick a city. Which one do you want gone. Miami, Chicago, LA. Over 30,000 nuclear weapons in the world.

How many of you think they are all accounted for?

Not a test. If someone takes out Miami, it will be full out war.  If a city like that is nuked, it would scare Europe into getting off it's ass.

China and Russian won't do that because if traced to them, they could be made to pay in spades.  That leaves Islamic extremists, and the response would be horrific, even for a peaceful leftie.

India, with 1 billion people would join in the fray. China and Russian fear Moslem extremists, and would join.  

In short, the premise involved world oil supplies.

Today, we have a brewing fight over oil reserves located in the Arctic. With the north polar ice caps melting combined with the re-opening of the Northwest Passage, huge tracts of accessible oil, much of it comparable to the highest grade of sweet crude coming out of the Middle East can be accessed.

Ther major powers and regional countries are already jockeying for position.

With that being said, here's my prediction:

If Israel and Iran don't mix it up first, and that is a distinct possibility, look for a superpower confrontation in the Arctic over oil rights between the US, China and Russia within the next 12 months.

The preliminaries have already begun.

Good book and well defined points There  might be a disagrements but I do not think it will break into all out war like the novel .



What is troubling is the friendship and relationship that is being more firmly established between Chavez and Putin. It began ramping up in may of 2001 and they both agree that "we cannot allow the price of oil to fall".The Gazprom Oil Co is also establishing drilling platform in gulf of Venezuela.Russian oil tariffs are linked to world oil prices, when oil is over 25 bucks /barrell, the gov collects 90% off addit revs (to fund military build up in my opinion).  Look at the Board of Dirs on their website-filled with Russian Fed members.

Of course if Chavez became too big a problem Exxon could just hire Blackwater to take Chavez out





-- Modified on 10/22/2008 2:35:07 PM

And a very possible reality.  The cold war never really ended.  It just sat on low simmer for a while, until a nationalist like Putin came along.

Stalingrad was the name given to Volograd.  Stalingrad was way south. Lenengrad/Petersberg is up next to Finland.

YOu have them confused.

The last ancestor born over seas was my Russain born grandfather.  If he ever heard me say I was a Russian-American he would have knocked me upside the head and say he didn't go to Ellis Island to be Russian.

My favorite immigrant story was a Thanksgiving story I heard on PBS.  A writer living in New York went to visit her Greek-born parents at Thanksgiving.  The mother was talking about the holiday and how it celebrated their ancestors in the colonial days.

The college-educated daughter pointed out that their ancestors were in Greece at the time, and the people at Plymouth Rock were English.

The mother replied that the Pilgrims were also their ancestors also.  

I love the mother.

for armed conflict. I see trouble spots though in another rarely unpublized area of the world, Africa.

In Nigeria, rebels have declared war on the oil companies. 20-percent of our oil is derived from this country. Equatorial Guinea rich in oil is ruled by a ruthless dictatorship. In the Sudan, another oil rich country, both China and the US is competition for their resources. Angola is also rich in oil as is Libya and Algeria and all have subversive elements in the populace.

Africa is also rich in minerals important for industry such as titanium, molydeumum, zinc, copper, bauxite etc. Don't forget Gold and diamonds too.

China has poured billions into African countries to extract their resources and develop markets for their products. My pet conspiracy theory on why Sen. Obama will be elected President is because we are in direct competition with China for Africa's resources and to have a black President would give us the upper hand.

Forget race, religion, gender, as the main issues it's all about the color of money and who can best promote American's economic interests at home and abroad. The corporation giveth and the corporation taketh away.

By the way I will be Las Vegas next weekend, is there a meet and greet, there?

We get about 1 million BOPD from Nigeria which would put it at 4-5 percent not twenty.

Interrupted production in Nigeria is nothing new, rebels have been disrupting production in that country for years.

That said Africa is rich in many natural resources and we will be competing directly with China as you say. I doubt Obama will make our negotiations any easier, the only color they are concerned with is green also.

E.I.A. does show something curious. OIl imports to the United States from Angola has more than doubled since February 2008. I got out of commodities last December so I haven't been up to date as I should be.

Man, I would like to start an investment club with you, St Croix and Gonzo, nothing gets past you guys. Good Call.

Your premise that China and the US will be competing for the resources of Africa is still spot on.

I'd hate for you to restate that Stalingrad and St. Petersburg are the same city.  But what the hey, live in ignorance.