... check out the site below. It suggests things are trending towark Kerry in the popular vote. Currently, the simulations show Bush with close to a 55% chance of winning the electorial college. The situation is very fluid and complex. For the numbers junkies out there (I am one), things are looking very fluid. If I were a Bush Supporter, I would be very concerned.
Harry
It looks like Wisconson & Minnesota ree the only two states up for grabs at this point.
... and it shows well. Most of us might talk about the evil GWB, but so be it.
Take a look at some of the page links from the site that look at simulations of the electorial vote. The most realistic ones appear to show Mr Kerry winning - substantially.
As to Mr Bush being ahead in the polls, there is something called the 50% rule that is going to give him a great deal of trouble. In a race with an incumbent, if the incumbent does not have 50% of the committed vote he is in big trouble in the state. This is because historical precedent suggest that 75%-85% of the uncommitted vote goes to the other guy. Third party votes don't appear to matter: people that vote for a third party vote from a sense of committment, not a sense of protest.
I of course could be wrong and you could end up having the last laugh.
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