Politics and Religion

Interview effect on polls?
lester_prairie 12 Reviews 273 reads
posted

It'll take a few days (past the labor day holiday on Monday) for polls to reflect any effect from the Kamala interview.
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Polymarkets did not surge for her so far, might have dipped for her about a percent.  Presently 50/48 Trump's favor.
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For trends I'll add the Rasmussen Daily tracking with data up to the day before the interview as a reference.  Some time next week we may see if there is a trend.
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You don't have to agree with Rasmussen offset, but trends should show up if data is collected consistently.

Rasmussen Reports says this last sample included 50% of the sample after the Kamala interview.
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I saw that only 6 million watched the interview directly on CNN (untold on other outlets showing clips) so it is hard to believe the dip for Kamala was really associated with the interview.  Might just be statistical noise.

Polymarket did not swing at all for Harris after the interview so far.  Further evidence supporting the notion that it "didn't move the ball forward."

Doesn't look like the Kamala interview tipped the prediction market in her favor.  She's down 4 points.
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Polymarket is a betting market.  So it is the result of the estimations of the players, rather than a voter poll, etc.

Not every Rasmussen nightly poll favors Trump

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