: Politics and Religion Discussion : IMO

bigguy30 880 reads

posted 11 years ago

1 / 11

Oil Prices Have Now Crashed Through Their 2008 Low and worse is likely to come.

This picture of Russia's President Putin face is hilarious. Lol
I know he is Donald Dump new friend and I guess fake tough guys always stand together.

FatVern 184 reads

posted 11 years ago

2 / 11

ok

Tell me how ISIS is able to turn a profit by selling oil.

marikod 1 Reviews 204 reads

posted 11 years ago

3 / 11

Goldman’s call of $20 a barrel is downright scary

The conventional wisdom is that the best remedy for low oil prices is low oil prices but that has not proven true all year. The wildcat frackers are being severely hurt, except possibly those with leases in the Permian Basin where the economics are a little different. But I don’t think even they can survive $20 a barrel.

And for many of those guys it is not simply a matter of stopping production till prices rise. Those rigs decline in value over time and need maintenance. E & P revolving credit production loans are largely collateralized on the value of the proven reserves, and when the price drops this low, the bank will stop making future loans. Meanwhile, I suspect a lot of frackers have been using loan proceeds to pay themselves instead of for production which violates the loan agreements. So, while the big boys will survive, I predict a lot of lawsuits and bankruptcies for the cats.

A number of oil dependent businesses like the sand business are also getting killed.

And for those of us with energy/commodity portfolios, it is also a nightmare. I'm shocked by how much I've lost this year alone. The bottom line is we need oil prices to go back up at least to $50. Putin and OPEC are not the only ones hurt by low oil prices

St. Croix 178 reads

posted 11 years ago

4 / 11

Have you followed Goldman's oil calls over the years?

They're not very good at it. In 2007 they had a $250 target. In 2013, they had a $150 target. I'm not buying $20, or anything in the 2 handle.

Now to the point at how shocked you are by how much you've lost THIS year alone, which leads me to believe you are actually going through a multi-year energy/commodity losing streak. Now you stick with that "buy and hold" approach, because eventually before you die you might get your money back.

Just based on your past trading patterns, I'll never understand why you don't at least use "stop-loss" or "stop limit" type orders.

Posted By: marikod

The conventional wisdom is that the best remedy for low oil prices is low oil prices but that has not proven true all year. The wildcat frackers are being severely hurt, except possibly those with leases in the Permian Basin where the economics are a little different. But I don’t think even they can survive $20 a barrel.

And for many of those guys it is not simply a matter of stopping production till prices rise. Those rigs decline in value over time and need maintenance. E & P revolving credit production loans are largely collateralized on the value of the proven reserves, and when the price drops this low, the bank will stop making future loans. Meanwhile, I suspect a lot of frackers have been using loan proceeds to pay themselves instead of for production which violates the loan agreements. So, while the big boys will survive, I predict a lot of lawsuits and bankruptcies for the cats.

A number of oil dependent businesses like the sand business are also getting killed.

And for those of us with energy/commodity portfolios, it is also a nightmare. I'm shocked by how much I've lost this year alone. The bottom line is we need oil prices to go back up at least to $50. Putin and OPEC are not the only ones hurt by low oil prices.

marikod 1 Reviews 157 reads

posted 11 years ago

5 / 11

No, but I follow the rig count very closely

To me, that and OPEC production quotas are the best leading indicators. With oil hitting 34 last week and fracker bankruptcies growing, the rig count in Eagle Ford actually INCREASED last week by 1. Some idiot fracker decided to start drilling, believing that oil prices are going to rise.

Nationally, the oil rig count went up by 17 (to 541) after a four week decline. The Saudis have shown no indication of cutting either. Until these idiots face reality, prices are not going to rise.

I don’t buy $20 oil either but a twenty handle? Oh, that is coming with near certainty, unless the rig count falls.

Stop loss orders only limit your realized loss at 10% or whatever. I have no losses until I realize them. As you know, when I have a big loser like Dr. Copper I like to buy an equal amount low to reduce my cost per share and then get out. Ironically, after getting out of FCX at a small loss at 21, I got back in 9 and now have lost nearly a third of that plus they cut the DD. COL (crying out loud)

GaGambler 214 reads

posted 11 years ago

6 / 11

Does that mean if both Mari and GS are calling for $20 oil, I can rest easy it won't happen?

BTW were you able to make sense of Mari's observations/conclusions about the oil markets?

Just what the fuck is a "wlldcat" fracker? What do rig values have to do with production? and just why is Mari pontificating once again about an industry he has virtually no understanding of?

The only sensible thing he has said is that many of the peripheral businesses to the oil industry are getting hit even harder than the producers themselves.

Once again Mari has proven he doesn't have the stomach or the timing required to be involved in commodity based industries. The oil business, like most commodity based industries has always been subject to the "boom bust" cycles. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. I am willing to bet I can add at least a couple of decimal points when comparing my exposure to Mari's, but unlike the White wine spritzer drinking crowd, by and large I am taking my lumps in private and I am not here whining about how tough things are. and just remember that when oil returns to favor and all the wannabes are begrudging whatever money I make when oil rebounds.

BigPapasan 3 Reviews 196 reads

posted 11 years ago

7 / 11

No one has told California; gas prices are going up, up, UP!! (E)

END OF MESSAGE

RRO2610 51 Reviews 171 reads

posted 11 years ago

8 / 11

IMO

Home heating, electricity and internet should be a RIGHT; same as healthcare and education.

The damn LAW refuses a homeowner to go "Off-Grid" anywhere in the US, and it is essentially impossible to seek any kind of employment outside family or friends without a computer and internet access.

Nowhere else in Earth's biological kingdom supposedly created by GOD is its creations constantly and relentlessly demanded to pay a valued, hard won currency just to have similar, habitable shelter and interaction with others of its species.

Ironically those who most adamantly champion the privatization, capitalization and profiteering of EVERYTHING are the ones who profess to be the most GODLY influenced.

St. Croix 180 reads

posted 11 years ago

9 / 11

Isn't it amazing how many experts we have on this board

in so many areas? It seems 95% of individual investors, mari included, think they have a total grasp of all the available information. What mari needs to understand is that he is at a disadvantage when investing, just like me. First, he will only have 1/10th of the available information, if that. Second, he will probably interpret the information wrong versus the professional. Third, by the time he is ready to make a decision, that train (equity) left the station 3 months ago.

He doesn't even want to use simple tools that every disadvantaged investor must use to give themselves a little chance.

Mari, if you are reading this, you seem to be making the same mistakes over and over. Why in God's name did you get back in FCX @ $9? You like catching falling knives? You're like the guy at the blackjack table getting his ass handed to him, and then you split 10s. Then you say you have no realized losses until you sell. Whoever came up with that original line should be shot. That is the fucking dumbest thing I've ever heard. They are losses before you sell, just look at your brokerage account, because your brokerage is treating like a loss.

Posted By: GaGambler

BTW were you able to make sense of Mari's observations/conclusions about the oil markets?

Just what the fuck is a "wlldcat" fracker? What do rig values have to do with production? and just why is Mari pontificating once again about an industry he has virtually no understanding of?

The only sensible thing he has said is that many of the peripheral businesses to the oil industry are getting hit even harder than the producers themselves.

Once again Mari has proven he doesn't have the stomach or the timing required to be involved in commodity based industries. The oil business, like most commodity based industries has always been subject to the "boom bust" cycles. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. I am willing to bet I can add at least a couple of decimal points when comparing my exposure to Mari's, but unlike the White wine spritzer drinking crowd, by and large I am taking my lumps in private and I am not here whining about how tough things are. and just remember that when oil returns to favor and all the wannabes are begrudging whatever money I make when oil rebounds.

mattradd 40 Reviews 135 reads

posted 11 years ago

10 / 11

I'll admit it!

My expertise, even remotely close to this discussion, is noticing when it takes for or less dollars to fill up my tank week to week!

GaGambler 168 reads

posted 11 years ago

11 / 11

That puts you on at least an even footing with Mari

Actually that puts you miles ahead of him as you aren't pretending to understand issues that simply aren't in your wheelhouse. Maybe if Mari would admit that he really doesn't have a clue as to what he is doing, he might just stop running up all those huge losses.

Mari is a perfect example of knowing just enough to be dangerous.