I don't want to debate the merits of green energy, but it certainly seems like the idea is growing in popularity.

With higher gas prices, and the popularity of the Prius, it looks like a few companies are putting out all electric vehicles. Nissan and GM both have new models coming out this year.

1) Do you think these cars will be a success like the Prius?

2) If they are successful, what does that mean for the future health of the oil industry?

I'd like the board's thoughts on this, particularly GaG's and St's.

I've never bothered to do the math before on the Prius, but you laid out what I pretty much suspected.

The thing that interests me about this, is that unlike the US and the rest of the Western world, China and India isn't all that industrialized yet. Since they don't have a ton of investment in an oil-based economy yet, would they be more free to try alternatives, especially if the price is going to soar to $200 a barrel?

Anything, even something objectively harmful, can become a successful product given proper marketing and social circumstances.

In terms of cost, however, hybrids are still a non-starter.

The Chevy Aveo costs $12115 and gets 35mpg highway
The Chevy Volt costs $41,000 and gets 36mpg highway (http://gm-volt.com/2010/10/10/popular-mechanics-finds-chevrolet-volt-gets-32-mpg-city-and-36-mpg-highway-in-extended-range-mode/)
The Toyota Prius costs $22800 and gets 48 mpg highway

Lets forget the volt and compare the Aveo to the Prius.

The Aveo costs $12115 and gets 35mpg while the Prius costs 22800 and gets 48mpg highway.
Assume gas costs $5/gallon and the cars are driven 12,000 miles annually for 5 years. Assume both are purchased outright.

The Aveo's gas costs $8571 the Prius' gas costs $6250 Total cost of ownership after 5 years is $20,696; and for the Prius is $29,050.

In order for the Prius to be a better financial decision, the cost of gas would have to be between $10 and $15 a gallon, at which point there will be widespread starvation anyway so the point will be moot.

So as a financial decision, hybrids aren't a good choice. HOWEVER, clever marketing may still sell them. Nevertheless, their sales are premised on the idea that people will be able to afford them.

As for the future health of the oil industry, remember that demand is global and that China and India, with their rapid industrialization, are using that fuel. Within 10 years, at current growth rates, China and India will be using more oil than the whole rest of the world combined.

So ... the use of hybrids in this country at any foreseeable rate of adoption will have a negligible effect on total oil demand.

Meanwhile, Peak Oil will likely be in 2012. Peak Oil is not the end of oil -- it is the end of CHEAP oil. It is the point where demand will chronically exceed supply leading to enormous increases in price -- $200bbl oil is coming.

True, oil companies will have some increasing costs in terms of exploration. However, when people are freezing and starving; politicians will be eager to do anything they can to lower costs; so you can look forward to fewer regulatory hurdles for oil companies. But overall, the price will increase faster than the costs leaving some very nice and tidy profits!

I have lots of oil stocks in my portfolio. I figure since I can't change what is coming, I might as well make money from it.

Most of the public rushes to buy stocks after it is really too late. I started accumulating oil stocks years ago.

Never understood the financial sense behind hybrids never worked out. Must be the same idiots who bought into Credit Default Swaps buying Hybrids.

Government gives rebate but the consumer never gets it because manufacturer raises price. Same goes for Energy Efficient Appliance BS.

For it really work, the rebate should be attached to price range and if it is done, prices will be inline with range and consumers know they are not paying the rebate back to the manufacturer.

a couple of items which will play on the final outcome.

1. Brazil and of all places Utah are to a large extent using natural gas for light auto power.
2. The U.S. has 125 years of proven supply of natural gas if we used it for electricity generation and
   autos.
3. Natural gas is cheaper and cleaner than oil.

When oil reaches 200 brl we will switch to natural gas. Electric will continue to grow but will be secondary for at least 30 years. There is always the possibility of a major break thru in tec, but I'm not willing to bank on it.

I have some oil stocks but instead of CVX and XMO a better play I think is mid-stream. Oil and gas pipelines and storage. They arn't dependent on oil prices, oil and gas will always have to be transported.

Ethanol has nothing to do with Brazil's newfound energy independence, finding and developing over 30 Billion Barrels of oil of their coast is what has made them a force in the energy world.

Ethanol is a boondoggle, especially corn based ethanol. Our money would be much better spent co-developing Brazils massive oil reserves, and thus keeping our money "in the neighborhood"

I would like to remind everybody that 30 Billion Barrel is not going to solve the worlds energy crisis, consumption is over 80 million BOPD, at a rate of a Billion Barrels every two weeks or so and climbing we need to find something to replace fossil fuels,  hopefully sooner than later. Not to soon of course, I am looking forward to $200 oil, I am going to be FUCKING RICH!!!!!

See you bitches, I am off to Colombia for the week.

Brazil is the largest producer of sugar cane based Ethanol. They have worked on for two decades and have reduced their oil imports by 97%. They have also perfected it to the extent that the ethanol production is energy neutral, i.e., they get same amount of energy back as they put into producing Ethanol.

Recently, Petrobras discovered on of the largest oil reserves in thirty years:

"Brazil's Petrobras has discovered the largest light crude Oil Field since the Mexican Cantarell Field in 1976. The massive find is in the same area off the coast of Brazil as the restly discovered Tupi field which is beleived to hold 8 billion barrels of extractable crude. The new Sugar Loaf Field discovery is 5 times larger than Tupi and could signal an end to declining oil production around the World".

An interesting tid bit; it is illegal to import Ethanol from Brazil cheaper than the Ethanol produced here. ADM and the powerful grain lobby prevailed. Our elected officials are really looking out for you kid!

Hey, what can I say, we would rather give money to the Saudi's and the middle east so that they can fun Islamic Jihadis instead of someone in our neighborhood. Makes sense to me.

Go look at Brazils energy imports. Until the recent discovery, it was assumed Brasil didn't have any reserves.

No one said, discovery is going to solve carbon based energy problem. Being myopic is an art form very well practiced by you.

Waiting for the name calling starting with stupid, dumb and what else?