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Politics and Religion

Biggest pollsters winners and losers
lester_prairie 12 Reviews 236 reads
posted

First and probably biggest loser -- Selzer.

RespectfulRobert23 reads

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coeur-de-lion22 reads

agree on.  A hot young provider just left my house after a two-hour session and I had the TV turned off.  I turn it back on and was aghast at how much things changed in two hours.  When she got here, early returns looked bleak for Trump, but now, the three he needs, PA, NC and GA all look pretty good plus, he is leading in WI.

 
Trump took Ohio by 12 points and Moreno flipped the Senate seat.  

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durran42119 reads

Honest question. How did you think it was going to be your night?  
How?
How on God's green earth did you legitimately think that people would go for another 4 years of the most poorly ran US in our lifetime? Not opinion.... fact.
How did you think that?  
In what world could you possibly live to even remotely think that majority of sensible thinking Americans hasn't had enough?

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eroticspirit21 reads

The lefties (such as the ones that regularly post on this board) are so consumed with their "superiority" that it simply makes them incapable of understanding ANY points of view other than theirs. And the arrogant hubris consistently demonstrated by the Dem elites was critical in leading to their defeat last night!

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420Smoka4Eva20 reads

Liberals and leftists believe themselves to be both intellectually and morally superior to their opponents and it costs them votes. People don't want to talk politics because they know the Libs are going to try to shame them or insult them so they just don't talk politics. As a result the Democrats don't realize they can no longer communicate with large swaths of the population.  

 
The Republicans used moral arguments to defend their stances on abortion and gay rights, framing them as right vs. wrong. It is wrong and immoral to get an abortion, it is wrong and immoral to be gay etc. In the 2000's the Democrats countered this by reframing the moral argument as a civil rights issue. It is wrong to try and control someone else who has a right to live their own life. They had a lot of success. However, they extended this strategy to almost everything. Healthcare is a human right etc., and they increasingly started viewing almost issue as a black/white and right/wrong and have boxed themselves into corners. They can't see that issues are not black and white. They don't understand that the world we lived in before 2020 is gone and not coming back. They have created bubble so thick they can't understand other people anymore.

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willywonka4u21 reads

Silver boasted that he ran 80,000 simulations last night with Harris winning 40,013 of them. Which means he basically just said the race was a 50/50 toss up. What analysis did he use to come to this conclusion? None. You could have come to the same conclusion by saying the race could be decided by a coin toss.

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lester_prairie20 reads

What a charlatan.  It's not that the idea of his "keys" are totally invalid in principle. It's that he subjectively weighted them.

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coeur-de-lion18 reads

Both Silver and Lichman started trying to hedge their positions, by leaving themselves a back door if Harris lost.  They said things like Trump COULD have a HUGE upset, thereby setting themselves up to claim a pass for being wrong.  

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lester_prairie19 reads

State Forecasting Accuracy by Organization, Battleground States Only.

Atlas Intel 100%
PollFair 86%
Rasmussen 86%
Trafalgar 71%
Insider Advantage 71%
Real Clear Politics 71%
Fabrizio 67%
Remington 67%
Emerson 57%
Wall Street Journal 50%
Beacon (Fox) 50%
Marist 50%
Morning Consult50%
Suffolk50%
TIPP 43%
538 43%
Quinnipiac 40%
Susquehanna 33%
CNN 33%
Bloomberg 33%
GSG 33%
Echelon 33%
Washington Post 33%
Data for Progress 25%
CBS 25%
Siena 14%
Cook 14%

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lester_prairie20 reads

Look where 538 ended up.  haha.
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There is a definite skew with more liberal pollsters getting it wrong whereas more conservative pollsters getting it right.

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lester_prairie17 reads

The worst state for AtlasIntel was Nevada where they were only off by 1.7%.  I don't know what sorcery they use, but they are fantastic.
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Actual results as of now (vs @atlas_intel poll)
NC: Trump +3.4 (+3.4)
GA: Trump +2.2 (+2.5)
AZ: Trump +5.5 (+6.5)
NV: Trump +3.8 (+5.5)
WI: Trump +1.0 (+1.0)
MI: Trump +1.5 (+1.5)
PA: Trump +1.9 (+1.8)

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durran42120 reads

Great job NC, GA , AZ and NV. That shows you without any argument of how people have had enough of this ridiculous nonsense that we've endured for 4 years.

Joe Biden said in his speech today, "It's been a historic presidency"  
Well by God he finally said something right. It sure has been historical. He'll go down as the worst American President ever in the history of the US. That's damn sure historical alright.

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coeur-de-lion19 reads

Jimmy Carter can go to his grave knowing HE was not the worst president in history.  

 
Joe's a little deluded.  If it was "historic" in a good sense, HE would be the president-elect, and not Trump.

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lester_prairie21 reads

Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the sinking of the Titanic were all historic.

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