Sure many of you have seen cable news footage of the turmoil in Egypt. What do you think will happen ? Will Mubarik be ousted & the U.S will lose a key ally in the region ? Will Egypt become a theocratic regime like Iran, breaking off diplomatic ties & treaties with Israel ? Or are other possibilities in the cards ?

Feedback would be most welcome.

religion. Several weeks ago, many Muslims after the Coptic Christian church bombing, provided them with a human shield against any further attacks upon them. I'm certain their are some radical Islamists who will try to exploit the situation, but there have being many more years of relative religious tolerance in Egypt than in most of the other Middle East countries where Islam is the primary religion.

Greek riots, North Korea doing something stupid, Nigerian rebels blowing up an oil pipeline, now this. Always something. But you are right, this is not about Islam. The Egyptians took their cue from the Tunisians, and this is about higher commodity prices, high unemployment and other economic issues. Gold and oil up, stocks down, which is normal. Now the question is what happens this weekend, i.e. Mubarak heads out of town, and whether other countries follow suit.

And, unpredictable. Though Mubarak is relatively friendly to the U.S., we need to be careful and be seen as not interfering on behalf of one side or the other.

By Monday the capitalists will have quelled the rioters and the capitalist's boot heel will be back in place on the necks of the working class.

When situations like the one in Egypt get suffiently hot, it seems like it often comes down to the answers to two key questions:

1). Wiil the army fire on their own people?  (not the police, the army)
2). Who controls the news media which the people turn to to find out what's going on?
It used to be this was state-run TV and radio, but it's tougher to control Twitter, You Tube, Facebook, etc, so that puts a new twist on things.

Egypt has been friendly to the US since President Sadat.  
If Mubarak is overthrown, the government that replaces him may not be so friendly (maybe even hostile) to the US.  
We (and our allies) may be denied use of the Suez Canal.

I have a very dear friend who lives in Cairo, and I know that a lot of people in Egypt are quite tired of Mubarik's 30 year extension of "emergency powers".

Last year, there were riots in Iran from people seeking to establish a real democracy. Last week Tunisa's government was overthrown in favor of democracy. And now Egypt's government may come to an end because the people there desire the same thing.

To the remaining neo-cons left in this country: Take note that very little to none of this happened, and is happening due to US intervention. And this certainly isn't happening in Iraq. What is going on in Tunisa and Egypt is.

It's messy, but revolutions always are. And if successful, it will result in a greater expansion of human liberty in a part of the world that desperately needs it.

Wow. That required a lot of thought. Or was that just a recording.

This situation in Egypt is just like 1978 Iran.  We don't know what kind of government will result from this.  
I don't think any government change in Egypt will be good for the US and the West.

I might disagree with you,(as usual) but it's nice to see you "on topic"

It may be tougher to control the internet, but simply shutting it appears to have the same result. For how long? is the question.

While revolution in the non-Moslem world has led to less free states at times - such as the Soviet Union, the trend seems to be otherwise in the West, where uprising usually is geared to freedom.  (This is based on impression, not a detailed survey.)

However, popular uprisings in the Moslem world may install regimes that crush freedom more than the previous one.  While the Shah of Iran was a brutal dictator, the next regime was worse in terms of supressing women, endangering minorities like Christians and Jews, and a total abrogagation of human rights.

I hope Egypt can push to a freer state.  The most important resource it has at this time is tourism, and if it turns into "Iran South," that will take a blow. Likewise, if it goes the way of the Taliban, it could end up destroying its non-Islamic heritage by blowing up the traces of pre-Islamc religion.

It is a very tense time.  May freedome prevail.

Breaker, as strange as this sounds, you're right about this. What is happening in Egypt and Tunisa wouldn't have happened without George Bush. Of course, I have a different take on why.

Bush was so incredibly incompetent, and he broke this nation to such a degree, that his mismanagement of the country was insufficient to sustain the American Empire.

Mubarak has been a US-backed, and propped up dictator for the last 30 years, just as our sphere of influence in Latin America declined, and you had democratic revolutions in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Argentina.

With our military might declining with our economic standing in the world, the stranglehold we've held over the Middle East is weakening, directly resulting in these democratic uprisings.

The riots look serious though. I wonder who is behind them. The Egyptians at one time were quite cozy
with the Stalinists.

struggle between opposing capitalist factions.

If not for all of that drivel about freedom in your post , I would agree with you. Keep up the good work.

that COULD happen when elections are held in Egypt. BM, crediting GWB for "deomocracy breaking out in the Arab world & saying BHO has been "badmouthing the U.S.", shows how misinformed you are.

In earlier threads I referred to you as a "jingoistic tin soldier"; nothing you've said since would make me change that description of you.




-- Modified on 1/30/2011 7:11:00 AM

just as blatantly as his predecessors and as Mr. Obama

      Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice acknowledged this in the middle of his term, “For 60 years, my country, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in the region, here in the Middle East, and we achieved neither.”

    True in 2005, the Bush Administration’s pushed a “freedom agenda,” and Cairo experienced a short-lived “springtime” for reformers. But Bush reversed course after Islamist parties did surprisingly well in elections across the region. Meanwhile, Bush kept funding Mubarik with about 2 billion a year most of which was used on military purchases.

    So if there is regime change, no credit will be given to Mr. Bush, that is for sure.


-- Modified on 1/30/2011 8:06:16 AM

Arab world the light of democracy. Willy, why don't you stop, salute the flag and thank the good Lord,  you live in a great country where you have great visionary leaders such as President Bush and have courageous soldiers, marines, sailors, airman who are willing to die for the flag and the freedoms we live under. If it wasn't for President Bush decision to invoke a beachhead of democracy in Iraq; what is happening in Tunisa, Egypt and Yemen would have never occurred. Obama blew it with Iran last year, let's see what he does with the current opportunity.

Thank you George W. and yes you too Dick Cheney and most of all, and most of all the brave men and women of the US Armed Forces. Thank you.

the last of suicide bombers from Egypt and Yemen. I place all the credit to Commander-in- Chief George W. Bush and the men and women of the US Armed Forces. Finally the people of the Arab world and beginning to throw away the chains of ignorance and corruption. George W. has led the way, and the Egyptians are following his leader. Regime change is happening.

Thats the reason we are in this soup. Sooner or later people rise up against tyrants atrocities. Exactly what is happening in Egypt.

From the looks of it, Mubarak will fall.

Hopefully, El Bardei will become the transitional leader and move on to lead Egypt and make it real democracy. He has credibility with Egyptians and with international leaders.

No substance, just insult. Typical. Bark.
If you don't have anything intelligent to say, say something nasty.  Good motto for life. Bark. Running dog.  Is there really a god with a small "G." Bark.

Did you ever see a little dog running behind a car yelping and trying to bite the wheels?

the idea of democracy was borne here, not in the arab world.

we have EVERYTHING TO DO WITH IT.

...credit for the invention of Democracy goes to the Greeks. In reality, Democracy is much older than that, and it's invention predates the evolution of homosapiens.

I usually ride the subway.