1. The Price of gasoline: Looks like gasoline prices will be trending down the second half of 2012. Obama may very well release gasoline from our petroleum reserves, if gasoline prices get too high.

2.Unemployment number: Labor department is already manipulating unemployment rates downwards. The overall trend in unemployment will be trending down in the second half of 2012!

3. Dow Industrials: The Federal Reserve/Broker Dealers/High Frequency traders are mucking around with the futures market! There will be no precipitous drop in the Dow Industrials up through November, we may trend sideways or get a slight blip up for much of 2012.

So Obama holds all the Aces at the moment, unless we have complete financial collapse in Europe, Iran starts a war with the U.S, a terrorism strike in the U.S.A, then all bets are off!

I'm however expecting total financial chaos come December 2012 regardless of who is elected.

Technically, there is just one number that will determine Obama's re-election chances:

the number of electoral votes he receives.

The price of oil is so complicated it is mind boggling. There are probably 50 factors pulling and pushing on the price of oil which in the end will determine what you pay at the pump.

Releasing oil from the SOR can only affect the price for 2 or 3 days and on a local basis. India and China  have a huge effect on the demand and the rate of growth is staggering.

Iran, Venezuela, Syria want $120 oil while the Saudi's and a few others want a stable price at $85 to $95.

Then you have oil production, falling in Venezuela and in Iran being curtailed by sanctions. Up in the US and Canada but Canada is losing faith in the US market and may sell to Europe which has unreliable suppliers.

The you have a weak dollar which tends to hold the price of oil up.

Price of gas at the pump usually rises during the summer in US.
 
Over time oil will go to $140 just due to world demand and cost of US production.

Bottom line, to difficult to call.We have a terrible unbalance economy right now. Too much money on the sideline held by corporations. Most of the market hype is about cell phones and Facebook. Neither is real industrial output and in the long run don't create real wealth, yes money for a select few, but not National wealth. Labor Department can fudge the numbers all they want but it's pretty difficult to convince an unemployed worker he is in good shape.  


The Dow is damn high right now, but half way thru the this earnings season earnings are choppy. Means 1st quarter results in March will probably be critical to the 2012 economy. Without a good first quarter we will probably see another round of corporate layoff in the US.  Banks are still not lending. Housing is dead. The market will always go down a lot faster then it goes up.

I'm neither Bullish or Bearish right now. I have no idea which way the Dow or the economy will go.

The price of oil is so complicated it is mind boggling. There are probably 50 factors pulling and pushing on the price of oil which in the end will determine what you pay at the pump.

Releasing oil from the SOR can only affect the price for 2 or 3 days and on a local basis. India and China  have a huge effect on the demand and the rate of growth is staggering.

Iran, Venezuela, Syria want $120 oil while the Saudi's and a few others want a stable price at $85 to $95.

Then you have oil production, falling in Venezuela and in Iran being curtailed by sanctions. Up in the US and Canada but Canada is losing faith in the US market and may sell to Europe which has unreliable suppliers.

The you have a weak dollar which tends to hold the price of oil up.

Price of gas at the pump usually rises during the summer in US.
 
Over time oil will go to $140 just due to world demand and cost of US production.

Bottom line, to difficult to call.We have a terrible unbalance economy right now. Too much money on the sideline held by corporations. Most of the market hype is about cell phones and Facebook. Neither is real industrial output and in the long run don't create real wealth, yes money for a select few, but not National wealth. Labor Department can fudge the numbers all they want but it's pretty difficult to convince an unemployed worker he is in good shape.  


The Dow is damn high right now, but half way thru the this earnings season earnings are choppy. Means 1st quarter results in March will probably be critical to the 2012 economy. Without a good first quarter we will probably see another round of corporate layoff in the US.  Banks are still not lending. Housing is dead. The market will always go down a lot faster then it goes up.

I'm neither Bullish or Bearish right now. I have no idea which way the Dow or the economy will go.

You must be one of the smart people.