Joe Bidden just said that in the first six months there will be an international crisis to test Obama.  

I said this after the Georgia affair.  Russia lost its western empire after WW I, and longed to have it back. They regained it after WW II, only to lose it when the Wall fell.  They yearn for it now as they did in 1925.  

Obama’s first response to Georgia was to urge restraint.  Ivan the Terrible and Smokin’ Joe Stalin weren’t big on restraint, as none of their heirs are or ever will be.  

His second response was say it should go to the UN, where Russia has a veto and would be rather unlikely to sanction themselves.  

Russia has the same claim on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic States, and the rest of its old empire that it had on Georgia, namely, there are many ethnic Russians living there.  (Of course, they were colonies.)  Russia will be dying to test the new guy.

Other nations are equally interested in testing him, partly because he is young, has little foreign policy experience, and has indicated a desire to operate on a consensus basis internationally.  

There is an inherent conflict between looking out for oneself and seeking a consensus.  If you want a consensus, you have to give up some of your own self interests.  For every individual or president, the question is where does one draw the line.  

There will never be an international consensus for many of our interests, so they will want to know how far he will go to rely on allies and when he will break and say regardless of what allies think, we have our own interests.

That will be very interesting.

Even though they try to hide him he keeps coming up with the gaffes. How many letters in JOBS? And Biden supposed to be the 'experienced' one.

Looks like the press will have to keep working at dragging them across the finish line.

-- Modified on 10/20/2008 6:51:07 PM

The upsetting thing is that Bidden was right. He has invited a test, which is the same as inviting a crisis.

The last time countries wanted to test a president who appeared to be weak got us as close to nuclear war as we have ever been.

It was when Krushchev thought that Kennedy appeared wishy-washy in Viena and decided to test him with the Wall and the Cuban crisis.

I know this was only part of the cause, but the desire to test his mettle was clearly one of the contributing factors.

Western Europe is impotent.  The entire combined force of Western Europe could not deal with the tiny segment of the Balkans without help from you-know-who. (And they hate us because the needed us.)

Based on Obama's reaction to Georgia and his stated intent not to go it alone, the Soviets, Iranians, Chinese, Syrians, and others should very well be wondering how much steel Obama has, to use Bidden's image.

My image is from The Godfather (the book, forget if it's in the movie), when Don Corleone asks Hagen if the Jack Woltz is Sicician.  He means, is this a man who will risk everything on principle or when faced with a crisis will he fold.

I wonder if Obama is Sicilian. I hope so.

Al Queda tested Clinton several times.

They only tested Bush once.