He may just cary the swing vote in Ohio against Bush. Wouldn't that be a kick in the ass?

Bush's Poll Numbers Hitting the Danger Zone
By John Whitesides

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - While President Bush remains essentially even with Democratic challenger John Kerry in new opinion polls, voters are slowly sinking into the kind of pessimistic funk that doomed other presidents -- including Bush's father.

Several recent polls show Bush's approval ratings slipping below 50 percent amid growing doubts among voters about his handling of the war in Iraq and of the economy.

Growing majorities believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a traditional early indicator of the electorate's mood and a clear warning sign for an incumbent trying to persuade the public to rehire him four more years.

"He is in dangerous territory now," pollster John Zogby said of Bush, although Democratic challenger John Kerry so far has failed to take much advantage of Bush's slump six months before the November election.

Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll, said Bush's slowly sinking job approval rating, down to 46 percent in his latest survey, was similar to the dropping trajectory of the last three incumbents to lose their elections -- George Bush, the current president's father, Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford.

In contrast, the five most recent incumbent presidents who won their elections never dipped below 50 percent in their job approval rating at any point in the election year, he said.

"The Bush campaign has to be concerned and worried at this point," Newport said. "When you look at the trend, you certainly see that Bush is beginning to track the trajectory of the three losing presidents rather than the winners."

The 46 percent who approved of Bush's handling of the job in Monday's Gallup poll was the lowest of his presidency. An NBC/Wall St. Journal poll last week put his approval rating at 47 percent, with 49 percent saying he did not deserve re-election and 50 percent saying the country was headed in the wrong direction.

UNDECIDEDS OFTEN GO TO CHALLENGER

Low approval and re-election numbers are particularly bad for an incumbent, who already is well known to voters. Undecided voters, who have had plenty of time to evaluate the incumbent, often break heavily for the challenger.

Polls have found growing majorities of Americans, confronted daily with depressing pictures of death in Iraq and abuse of Iraqi prisoners, disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq and of the economy.

The plummeting faith in Bush's Iraq policies threaten to turn one of his strengths -- his leadership in a time of war -- into a weakness, while voters rank the struggling economy as the nation's biggest problem but have little faith that Bush can fix it.

Despite signs of renewed job growth and economic expansion, voters are still pessimistic and worried about jobs, inflation and slumping stock markets, pollsters said. The NBC poll found 60 percent thought the economy would be in trouble in the future.

"It takes some pretty sustained good news for public perceptions of the economy to pick up," said poll analyst Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute.

That could be particularly worrisome for Bush, who saw his father's 1992 re-election bid founder on voter worries about the economy -- even as economic indicators already were beginning to improve.

The Bush campaign, where pollster Matthew Dowd has frequently predicted Bush's ratings would fall, said the latest numbers were not a cause for alarm.

"We understand that polls will fluctuate. The most important poll happens on Nov. 2," said Scott Stanzel, a campaign spokesman. "We have always said the election will be close -- potentially as close as 2000."

The silver lining for Bush is Kerry's relative inability to make major gains despite the president's troubles. While Bush's approval ratings and public confidence in the future have fallen, the head-to-head matchup has stayed relatively stable, with Kerry ticking up just a few points in some polls.

Pollsters said it might take time for Kerry to reap the benefits of Bush's falling stock -- or that given the uncertain nature of events and public unease about war and terrorism, the old patterns will no longer apply.

"This could be a very unusual election from a public opinion perspective," Bowman said. "Some of the things we think we know may not turn out to be true."


05/12/04 14:02

When baseball pennant races are in the home stretch and the Red Sox and Yankees are going for each other's jugular.  That is the time when politics begins to course through my veins.
 At this stage, polls mean little, given that events can turn dramatically one way or the other in the approximately 5.65 months we have until the election.

History is and will repeat itself. GWB suffering the same fate as his old man.

Quite a few similarities between Bush '88 & Bush '00.

Both instigating war with Iraq about 2 years into their presidencies, with GWB getting a jump start on combat due to 9/11.  Both enjoyed through the roof approval ratings during & soon after the conflicts.  Both didn't get the job done.  (Bush '88 didn't storm Baghdad or oust Hussein when he had the chance; Bush '00 hasn't caught Bin Laden from 9/11.  Bush '00 did manage to get Hussein, but not the WMD which were supposedly the basis of Bush '00's war (because the WMDs don't exist), and is still getting our soldiers killed well after the combat was supposedly considered over.)  Both presided over skyrocketing oil prices which came about in the aftermath of their wars.  Both had their sky-high approval ratings nosedive after the afterglow of their "successful" wars faded.  And both had terrible domestic economic policies, each driving the U.S. into recession & worsening the deficit.  GWB went a step further & took fiscal surpluses created during President Clinton's administration which were projected into the next decade & turned them into the largest deficits in U.S. history, not to mention presiding over the loss of well over 2 million U.S. jobs in the process.

But the most important similarity between Bush '88 & Bush '00 is both of them being ousted from office after just one term by their Democratic challengers.

You heard it here first!!!

-- Modified on 5/14/2004 8:34:15 AM