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Politics and Religion

Harvard/Harris Poll: RFK Jr Pulling More Voters from Democrats
cks175 43 Reviews 120 reads
posted

On page 22 of link below:
RFK Jr:
DEM: 12%
GOP: 8%
IND:  18%

Total:  12%

Trump: 43%
Biden:   39%

The picture reflects data from the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Related Link: Harvard Harris May 2024

RespectfulRobert6 reads

Especially if it appears he will cost Joe the election, he might just fold up and endorse Joe. He will be persona non grata in his own family forever if he is the one who gives a mad man a second shot at the Oval Office. And remember the Kennedy history with the Resolute Desk in that office, and that iconic photo of JFK sitting at it with JFK Jr playing underneath it.  
Just a thought cks.

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inicky468 reads

My guess is he's in it to stay, though I wish I was wrong.

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RespectfulRobert12 reads

But you and I know he will get pressured from people he loves and people he respects. If RFK Jr determines he has zero chance at the presidency, and his candidacy will hand the presidency back to Trump, then I wouldn't be shocked at all if he steps down. Is he really going to go the rest of his life and not have any relationship with family and friends? Is Trump the hill he is REALLY willing to die on? I say no.

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willywonka4u9 reads

...I've found that things can vary quite a bit, but over all Kennedy seems to be harming both Biden and Trump more or less equally. We should remember that national polling is pretty meaningless. The only thing that really matters is the Electoral Math. Who gets to 270. Kennedy is taking support from Trump in Utah and Iowa, and he's taking support from Biden in New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Over all, I just don't see a path to victory for Biden. When running the numbers, Trump can lose a lot of states he has a comfortable margin in. Biden can't lose anything. If one state slips through his fingers, he's toast. It's almost impossible to find a scenario where he could win.

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RespectfulRobert9 reads

No, not as in "you are so cool" but in "you jumped the shark!" lol.
You dont see a path? Wth? Pa, Mi, and Wi are all THIS close. They could easily tip in Joes favor. And if you are writing off Ga, Az, NC and NV as Trump wins, you really don't know politics at all.

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willywonka4u9 reads

Let’s look at what’s going on here:  

 
You’ve got Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. All of them will be close. Biden needs ALL of them to win. Trump needs just one of them. The polling has had Trump ahead in all three. None of the polling has had Biden ahead in all three.  

 
But even if Biden does win all three, he could STILL lose the election.  

 
20 years ago Florida and Ohio were considered swing states. Not anymore. Florida and Ohio are now considered red states. The polling in both states has Trump over Biden by 10-15%.  

 
Guess what other state is like this? Nevada. Trump is ahead by double digits. And not in one poll, but many polls. As high as 14%. By all rights, Nevada should be considered a red state in this cycle.  

 
North Carolina has Trump up by 5-9%.  
Arizona has Trump up by 4-6%.  
Pennsylvania has Trump up 3-4%.
Georgia has Trump up 8-10%.  

 
These numbers just do not look good for Biden. In total, I just can’t think of scenario where he has a path to victory. And this is regardless of whether Kennedy is in the race.

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lester_prairie9 reads

I know Biden is incapable of debating RFKjr.  Trump should debate him though. Highlight their differences.  

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willywonka4u8 reads

So Robert's insistence that states like Nevada are still in play got me thinking. I have been looking at which states has which candidate as in the lead. But what I haven't done is checked by how much are they in the lead. Thankfully, The Hill has more of the head to head Trump v Biden polling from Zogby. I don't know why 538 hasn't listed them. So here's a Electoral Map with the numbers ahead in each state. And this really, really surprised me.  

 
So, while I suppose it's possible for the polls to be off by more than 5% come election day, it's not very likely I don't think. So, from this, I suppose we could define for our purposes here that a "swing state" is a state where the lead of any particular candidate is LESS than 5%.  

 
Under this definition, the swing states are:

 
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Indiana
Virginia
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Maine

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willywonka4u10 reads

So if we go with this model of "Less than 5% up is a swing state", then here is what we find when we look at the map. Trump only has to win one of these states to win the election. This is why I'm saying that I just don't see a path forward where Biden could win.

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