Here is the result of the latest poll, before the convention.  

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=847

Kerry ahead with a reasonably respectable margin.

maybe worth a roll of toilet paper.  They are essentially worthless.  The republicans will have their convention in August and then polls will sway back and forth.  On election day, the American political middle will finally have it's say and will elect either Senator Kerry as president or re-elect President Bush.  During this process the decisions of the middle will be based upon studied research on the positions of both men on issues of importance to moderate voters.  And, despite all the hot air that was expended, the right, left, extreme right and extreme left will be pushed aside, for neither can anoint anyone president like the middle can.

A better look at polls.

MissDemeanor
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

had President Bush ahead in electoral votes.  I stick by what I said, polls in late July are useless.  The most accurate polls for predicting the winner are those taken in the second and third weeks of October.  The reason why the polls that I mentioned are more accurate is because at that point, a large number of the currently undecided moderate voters have made their decision.  Moderates are the people who will dictate who wins this election, no other segment of the political spectrum even comes remotely close to having such power.  Why do you think all presidential candidates move to the center after getting nominated?

West Virginia, the Bush states are a complete list of the states with the highest of what I call the redneck factor. No need to further denegrate them here, but that seems to represent the core of the GOP these days, not the industrialists that you would presume.