the population oriented stuff is.  the projections about computer power are more problematic.  most of that growth is a software issue and that doesn't grow in power as nicely as hardware does.  the figures about "information" depend on interpretation.  however, i think it is a reasonable description of some of the issues and opportunities that globalization will bring.

the rest of the world exists and what is happening elsewhare really matters.  china and india are becomming part of the developed world.  the us, europe, and india will see living standards rising and converging and the people and nations that take advantage of these opportunities will be the successes of the world.  

Harry

I predict that by the end of the century America will have ceased to exist...

(I divested myself from US-currency years ago... Am I ever glad!)

and sneaking across the Canadian border for them, too.

And I was born during the last draft this country had...

Canada is a nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there... Their tax-system is absolutly crippling! But I may have to reconsider and move there if Hillary becomes prez... Canada is only 40 miles to my north with wilderness and water between... I'll  throw away my passport and sneek across in the middle of the night, dragging a big bag of clam-shells... You can stay here and go down with the ship...

they need a positive IQ, not a black hole of brains...

just do enough hallucinating, and you don't need money at all.

In 1969, I attended my first college computer course. They called it Computers 100.
The teacher brought in a box that had recently contained a refrigerator, and a shoebox.
Then the lesson began....
He started by taking us on a tour of the schools computer facility, a cumbersome warehouse building taking up some 20,000 square feet, which housed the schools massive IBM 360-20 with all the attendant tape drives, and disk drives, andprinter stations and multiple 100,000 BTU air conditioning units.
Then we returned to the classroom where the teacher informed us that computer breakthroughs were going tobecome so commonplace and exponential, that by the year 2000, computers would be no bigger than the refrigerator crate, and by the year 2050, computers would be no bigger than a shoebox.
He was slightly off in his predictions.
Then in 1971, Intel introduced the microchip.
Leaps and bounds, leaps and bounds, exponential advances in technology.

Now look at the state of our technology today, and consider what WILL happen after the next quantum leap in technology is developed?

I believe some of the projections presented in Shift Happens to be optimistic, others are selling technology short.

We already HAVE the technology to create a supercomputer capable of exceeding the capabilities of the human brain.

Its just that for the ones in power, the ones who make the decisions, its much more profitable to build war machines.

Its haunting, and literally brought me to tears.

... first, THE FUTURE IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME.  second THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS NOT A ZERO SUM GAME.  third THERE ARE NO SUCH THINGS AS "AMERICAN JOBS" OR "AMERICAN TECHNOLOGIES"...

America will not go to hell in a handbasket because the rest of the world improves.  On the contrary, they will benefit from it.  That is NOT to say it will cause dislocation in the US -- people who work in low skill jobs or who are making a non-competitive wage (in a global sense) are going to lose these jobs and will have to do something else.   If our government tries to "protect us" from economics, they can hurt us.  If they stay out of it -- the nation as a whole will benefit.   What we lose is a "good night's sleep" where we assume things are not going to change for us.  

We need a politics that can see the future with optimism and who are willing to invest in the people in the country and in the technologiy we need to keep us ahead of the curve.  We need a politics that welcomes immigration as a way to bring people into the country that we need make our lives better and keep our businesses competitive.  We should work on managing the process and welcome them. From this board, it looks like most of us are afraid of them and suspicious of them.

How sad.

Harry



-- Modified on 6/3/2007 10:47:03 AM

that doesn't make it all rosy, for say, Detroit.

I agree, it's pretty damn pathetic when you get somebody living in Pasadena complaining about the orange vendors on the freeway on-ramps - especially when the bum on the better corner is making more begging spare change.

And the auto union members aren't to blame for their employers losing share to Toyota & Honda.  But they do have to cope with the reality that their pension fund managers will insist that the auto mfgrs go offshore to get a better deal.

Americans will have to cope with the reality that the Chinese and Indians are going to become powerful voices in the world, where once there was only an American voice; and anybody who thinks Chinese or Indian politics are as rational as American politics (at least until GW) hasn't been paying attention.

at some level, the union members are to blame.   the auto industry had a cozy relationship with the unions that went on for years and worked because there was no effective competition.  They are paying for not fixing the problems earlier.

I'm less worried about indian politics or chinese politics than you are.  Money, beneficial trade, and mutual advantage are what is driving most of this.  A "reasonably" democratic government will make "reasonably" good decisions here.

Regards, Harry