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Early Voting Trends In Virginia Should Be Putting Democrats On Edge
cks175 44 Reviews 407 reads
posted

If I'm the Harris campaign, I'm not yet ready to hit the panic button.

But I am beginning to take notice.

If this trend continues, Harris would be wise to hold an event or two in NOVA, particularly in Richmond and Hampton Roads, to try to boost early voting turnout.

If I'm the Trump campaign, I'm handing all responsibility for coordinating the GOP's early voting campaign over to Youngkin's network. Whatever they're doing, it's working.  

Incredibly, Republicans are currently outvoting Democrats among low-propensity voters. This should not be happening, and it certainly didn't happen here in 2022 or 2023
We're dealing with tiny sample sizes here, but those low propensity numbers really caught my eye.

The GOP had a huge problem getting low-propensity Republicans to vote early in 2022 and 2023 in VA. They are now technically outperforming Democrats in this camp, but it's still very early.

We'll see if a pattern develops here or if this is just noise.
Related Link: Early Voting Turnout Higher Than 2020

inicky4669 reads

without attributing it or putting it in quotes to show it was someone else's words. I had to actually click on your link and read the original to see what you'd done.

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cks17555 reads

Everything in gray is a quote. The link takes you to the source of the quote. For as long as you’ve been visiting this forum, I’m really surprised you haven’t figured that out yet.

Back to the topic, the Dems still have the edge in Virginia, but it’s going to be much closer than current polling indicates.

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inicky4657 reads

I've never seen it. How does a gray box equate to quotation marks? Also, I KNOW the link takes you to the source. I explained how that was the only way I learned you'd lifted the quote. Try and keep up.
Now explain where in the rules of grammar putting something in a gray box equates to quote marks.
When I cut and paste from an article I lead it with "From the [source name]" AND use quotation marks.
You might try that.

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BigPapasan65 reads

Quote Boxes are used to quote portions of TER posts, not quotes from outside sources.
I'm not surprised you haven't figured that out yet.

 
If you do want to use the Quote Boxes, you should first IDENTIFY who you are quoting as well as supplying the link.
It's fucking stupid to have to read an "anonymous" quote and then have to click the link to see who the quote was from.  But you're a righty so...

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lester_prairie72 reads

These guys do this diversion stuff ten times a day.  Forget the content, go on about "quote boxes.".  Other than pointing this out right now, I've long ignored the diversion bait.  If you post something and they pull this diversion stuff, there is no need to take the bait. Your original point stands unchallenged.

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inicky4664 reads

How often do you righties whine, "oh, that's just the pinko NY Times."

-- Modified on 9/24/2024 8:55:18 PM

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BigPapasan74 reads

It’s to help people improve their posts.  But Lester wouldn’t understand because he’s too fucking stupid.   When asked to furnish links, the SPOAT replied: “It’s too cumbersome.”  Fucking idiot!!

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durran42163 reads

Well TATL is an idiot who "likes" his own posts, and looks for spelling errors an quotation marks because he has no life. Sooooo yeah......

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inicky4659 reads

"sooooo yeah."

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durran42161 reads

"Soooooo yeah"

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inicky4664 reads

that he didn't falsely accuse me of using my tremendous influence here to put him on a time out for the past few days and continuing to "like" my own posts.

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durran42182 reads

Mostly lies and  fantasy land posts.  
Who's in time out? Not me. I've been a west coast traveler lately.  

Now TATL, you can save it sister. EVERYONE here (even your lefty pals) know that you have posts pulled all the time. Especially the ones that call you out for the lying political hack that you are.  
And we also ALL and I do mean ALL know you'll cry to Mr insurance man and get someone banned. That's not new news. That's old news.

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inicky4652 reads

His limited intelligence has kept him from making up new lies about me. So he must endlessly repeat all the old lies.
The only new one is his lie about being on the West Coast. We all know he never strays outside of Bayonne, NJ, because he has no money for travel or hookers. Thus The SPOAT can only cement his #2 ranking as purchaser of baby oil behind Diddy.
Good Boy, SPOAT!

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willywonka4u60 reads

…how do you do quote blocks? I forget how to do it on here.

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inicky4662 reads

Don't you know how to cut and paste?

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durran42169 reads

Posted By: inicky46
Re: Poor wanker.
Don't you know how to cut and paste?
You damn sure know how to.......

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RespectfulRobert58 reads

Joe won it by 10 in 2020, and she leads there by 8 on average in the only two polls that have asked some post debate watchers so no concerns at all as of today.

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willywonka4u77 reads

Trump’s going to win Virginia.

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inicky4663 reads

Keep making those predictions.
See ya in November.

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cks17570 reads

It’s good to find at least one liberal here to engage the substance of the topic rather than the delivery.

Back to the topic, the Dems still have the edge in Virginia, but it’s going to be much closer than current polling indicates
Not worrying at all could prove to be a critical error. If the Youngkin GOTV operation is effectively bringing early Trump voters to the polls, who knows what happens on Election Day?

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RespectfulRobert63 reads

Isnt that the true "tell?" Go by what is done and not what is said. People say things all the time to get enthusiasm at a peak even if they think they will win. Unless Trump makes a sincere effort to campaign there (and I bet he wont) all of this is just window dressing.

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cks17563 reads

Trump’s last in person rally in Virginia was early this summer. 3 days ago he held a tele-rally with Governor Youngkin.

Even as polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead in the commonwealth and history says it will be hard for him to win here, Trump says he is going to keep checking on Virginia to make sure Republicans are voting.
Youngkin suggests the electoral recipe that won him the governor’s race could work for Trump.
“I just want to send a message very clearly and very loudly that we are going to put strength back in the White House,” Youngkin said during the call.  

Youngkin said the key for Republicans to win the commonwealth is not to lose Northern Virginia badly, tie in the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas, and run up the score in the red parts of the commonwealth.

Trump ran close to Hillary in Virginia in 2016. He held a rally in Virginia during the closing days of that campaign. It’s true that the “tell” will be whether Trump continues to campaign in Virginia. We’ll have to wait and see.
Related Link: Youngkin and Trump hold Virginia tele-rally to talk early voting

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cks17560 reads

Latest poll has Harris up by only three. The most recent poll had her +8 and the RCP average is only Harris +4.8, within the polling margin of error.

Related Link: RCP Virginia: Trump v Harris

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cks17559 reads

Time to face it Mail votes are not going to save Dems in Virginia slump.

Around 20% of expected mail votes are now returned and processed in VA and its clear it is just not coming in enough to cover the Dem slump in in-person early voting.

Need proof - see below:

Top counties by % turnout after 9 days of early voting and Mail:
🔴 Fluvanna 12.5%
🔴 Mathews 11.5%
🔴 Northumberland 11.5%
⚪ James City 11%
🔵 Lexington 10%
🔴 York 10%
🔵 Northampton 9%
🔴 Middlesex 9%
🔴 Salem City 9%
🔵 Williamsburg 9%
Large Dem strongholds are just not turning out in person or returning mail in large enough volume to cover
Prince William - 2.7% turnout!!
Richmond City - Just 3%
Newport News - 3.5%
All usually heavy on early voting and have seen significant mail returns but just can't keep up
Related Link: Dems Behind In Virginia Early Voting

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willywonka4u62 reads

…Trump is going to win Virginia.

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