Every Monday, through the day before the election, I will update the below (if i remember lol) with regards to the 7 toss up states in both the RCP and 538. Here are todays up to the minute aggregate polls:
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RCP 538
PA Harris 0.2% Harris 0.7%
AZ Trump 1.0% Tump 1.8%
NV Harris 0.2% Harris 0.6%
WI Harris 0.4%. Harris 0.6%
MI Trump 0.4% Harris. 0.8%
NC Trump 0.5% Trump 0.9%
GA Trump 0.6%. Trump 1.0%
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Interesting in that they only differ on one state as to whom is leading (Michigan). If the RCP is correct, Trump wins with 277 EVs and if 538 is accurate, Harris wins with 276.
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Being transparent, I used the multi-candidate polling on RCP (that is, polls that show more than just Trump or Harris) as they make it easy to do as they separarte it out. 538 does not, as far as I can tell so their aggregate numbers count both multi-candidate polls and head to head, I believe.
for their "averages". In a rapidly changing race, they are always going to be a little behind. If you only consider polls that were taken AFTER the two hurricanes, Trump is ahead of Kamala.
Rasmussen proves the race really isn't changing. However the propaganda pollsters have to move closer to reality near election day or no one who still trusts them will trust them in the future.
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I am still not saying Trump will win or is in the lead, just that the race has been remarkably stable since the Biden coup.
Helps to explain why the Harris campaign is shitting their collective pants, and looking to cast blame elsewhere.
Biden wants Harris to lose, because it gives him the argument that he is the only one who could have beaten Trump, because he did it before. I don't think his staff at the WH has any control anymore over what he will say. I think Jill is out to make Kamala pay for her disloyalty in displacing Joe and Jill is the only one that Joe believes is on his side.
Every player in the Dem camp wants Harris to lose. They resent her instant coronation without earning it. They want their shot in 2028.
Potential rivals like Newsome, Witmer and Shapiro are not going to want to wait eight years for their shot. If Kamala loses, there will be no incumbent running in 2028 except Vance trying to move up from VP like Kamala is doing now. The good news for Californians is that, if Newsome wants to run in four years, he will need to clean up the state in the interim and get rid of all of the craziness while moving our state government to the center. It's what he NEEDS to do, but I doubt he has the ability after so many years on the far left.
That's a very interesting P.O.V. It's certainly possible for that to be true. And, I'm sure plenty of nutty stuff happens on both sides but, the Dems make it extremely evident that they'll do ANYthing to make themselves look good. Even if it's take out one of their own for their own gain or glory. Even for spite. Just look at the few that post on here.
How many dem voters do you know in 2019 that said, I'll vote for ANYONE at all just so Trump don't win. That's voting for spite. I knew several like that. Even some family members that now admit it was a huge mistake.
...will call Joe "America's Hitler?"
Joe is going to ask her, "Who's your daddy?" Lol
That is..... if he is even aware of what happened by then. He is so much farther in left field right now that he may have made it all the way to the parking lot.
Democrat PA senate candidate Bob Casey didn't attend a PA Kamala rally. He's not in great shape in the polls. That's why they have rallies -- to gin up support. Unless, of course, association with a losing campaign causes more harm than it helps.
NO poll has EVER shown Casey trailing...not even those far right wing crazy polls you love. That's an all time bad take by you.
with numbers like 47-45, which totals 92, so there are 8 points still up for grabs, and history has shown us that last minute undecideds break 65-70% for the party out of power. Even though he is still slightly ahead, the trending (which you like to ignore) has favored McCormick the last couple of weeks.
Ticket splitting is also not as common as some think.
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