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coeur-de-lion 400 Reviews 32 reads
posted

Kansas was close?  Trump won, 57-40.  He did better against Kamala then he did Biden.

Hpygolky548 reads

Now wouldn't that be a kick in butt to all those righties...
Des Moines Register poll has her ahead....WFT.
Iowa was NEVER in play, and now lookie here...fellas we got a race. And she never really campaigned there.
Be warned: Trump is a lousy candidate...bring on Haley now,

Related Link: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/shock-poll-shows-harris-with-lead-in-landmark-iowa-surve...

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RespectfulRobert34 reads

The DMR has a very good reputation. I wonder if it a sign of massive late movement towards Kamala or just a deeply flawed poll. I guess we'll find out soon enough but polls like that will keep Trump advisors up at night.

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lester_prairie30 reads

The Emerson Iowa poll came out an hour or so before Selzer and they have Trump +10.5.
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Nationally the Morning Consult poll which has been quite favorable to Harris just released their final poll with Harris +2, her worst result yet.  A month ago they had Harris +6.  
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The TIPP tracking poll nationally also just flipped back to Trump +1.
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So between Emerson Iowa poll and national polls, there is no other poll besides Selzer that is seeing a trend toward Harris.  Selzer is an outlier.

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inicky4633 reads

What Fester failed to mention is Selzer is also the Gold Standard among pollsters who has been right almost every time.
Fester is...

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lester_prairie33 reads

This graph was just posted on X by Elon Musk.
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It shows early voting by voter party registration 2020 vs 2024.
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Republicans have cut into Democrat early voting lead making it easier to overcome on election day, compared to 2020.

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Hpygolky34 reads

Trump won Kansas by 14pts on 2020. So how’s Trump doing against Harris, you say? Trump is Only leading by 5 pts
Not saying Kansas serious play but trump is loosing his mojo and this could spell trouble in MI,WI and PA
Something not bueno is happening to Trump

Related Link: https://kansasreflector.com/2024/10/31/a-stupefying-poll-shows-harris-breathing-down-tr...

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lester_prairie37 reads

Fine print: it's a survey, not a poll.

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Hpygolky32 reads

Gauge a feel .., and the temperature isn’t looking good for trump

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lester_prairie34 reads

Nothing wrong with a survey. But comparing it with a poll is misleading. A poll is going to attempt to be representative of the population. A survey is just whoever responded.

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Hpygolky33 reads

They call, you answer if you want, honestly or not.
Aren’t they kinda the same ?
You could probably get the same sense as to what’s going on

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inicky4640 reads

So presumably the results are not as reflective of the entire voting public.

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Hpygolky46 reads

I have a feeling that this so called “secret” voter is real and is under reported  
Hence, Iowa.

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inicky4636 reads

One that was mentioned by MSNBC's excellent analyst Steve Kornacki is Wisconsin. It's right next door to Iowa and is demographically very similar.

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Hpygolky43 reads

Along with Kansas .,, but Ohio is interesting

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inicky4633 reads

Bkiden lost to Trump there in 2020 by around 15 points, but now Trump's lead there is only 5. So who knows? Ohio looks out of reach. I'd settle for Sherrod Brown keeping his seat. If Harris wins she can do it without Ohio but she can't easily govern without the Senate.

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coeur-de-lion33 reads

Kansas was close?  Trump won, 57-40.  He did better against Kamala then he did Biden.

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lester_prairie34 reads

Poll Nov 2-3, 435 LV
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lester_prairie34 reads

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lester_prairie31 reads

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lester_prairie39 reads

I should have said "likely" Dem turnout is down.  The numbers refer to urban and female voters vs rural.  The presumption is this means Dems underperform, but that is only an assumption.

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lester_prairie34 reads

Harris 50.015%, Trump 49.985%
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Yes that is a 0.03 point difference.   That's a false precision.

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USGrantlover36 reads

tRump won IA by what, 13%? The “gold standard” indeed as one knowledgeable poster opined!

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