*OHIO (20 EV--13 polls)
-Mean: Kerry 48.1, Bush 46.2
-Median: Kerry 49, Bush 46

Poll Note: the second outlier comes in the form of a Fox News Poll that had OH as 49-44 for Bush. Eliminating it produces these totals:

-Mean: Kerry 48.4, Bush 46.0
-Median: Kerry 49, Bush 46

Analysis: Basically, I've felt the whole cycle that the polls have been missing swaths of newly registered folks who really are going to vote. I still believe that, and yet Kerry already has a substantial lead here. Of all the polls, Bush never gets to 50, and the only time he hits 49 is in the outlying Fox Poll. Kerry, on the other hand, hits 50 three times,  and 49 five times. I think there are certainly some fraud issues here, but not nearly to the same extent as in FL. It's just not the same when your brother's not the governor. I think that Blackwell is a hack, but I also think he doesn't want to see his career end as the man who stole Ohio; his opposition to the challengers in the polling places, along with the court order, ought to at least partially minimize the potential voter suppression. I think Buscho knows they've lost here and are desperately trying to find a way to get to 270 by other means. Kerry wins here, solidly.

Kerry 244, Bush 227

*MICHIGAN (17 EV--9 polls)
-Mean: Kerry 47.9, Bush 44.2
-Median: Kerry 48, Bush 44

Poll Note: The third and final technical outlier is the Mitchell Research poll that had Bush up 46-42. Tossing it out produces these numbers:

-Mean: Kerry 48.6, Bush 44.0
-Median: Kerry 48.5, Bush 43.5

Analysis: Obviously, Zogby has scared some folks here by having Bush ahead in his tracking, and Bush is clearly attempting to make a desperate play for the state--but it's just not going to happen. This state isn't shifting 5% from 2000, and Kerry has led here the entire cycle, really even during the best days of Bush's bounce. You've got polls out just today that have Kerry +6 and Kerry +4. In my view, the Bushies are taking a shot here only because it's 17 electoral votes--somehow swinging it would largely compensate for losing OH. Maybe also trying to divert Kerry's focus there. But I don't think the Bush camp, or anyone else, for that matter, thinks there's much chance that MI goes red. Kerry by about the same margin as 2000, if not more.

Kerry 261, Bush 227

*MINNESOTA (10 EV--6 polls)
-Mean: Kerry 47.2, Bush 44.3
-Median: Kerry 47.5, Bush 43

Analysis: MN is probably closer than alot of us would like it to be; but Bush's numbers don't suggest any ability at all to win the state. Of the six polls taken in Ohio, Bush's highest number is 47. Meanwhile, in half of the polls, Kerry leads by 5+. I think it'll be close here, but that it goes Kerry pretty much without a doubt.

Kerry 271, Bush 227

*NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 EV--11 polls)
-Mean: Kerry 48.2, Bush 44.5
-Median: Kerry 49, Bush 45

Analysis: NH is pretty clearly going Kerry. The Kerry folks know the state exceedingly well, the Repubs there are much more the reasonable type, and the incumbent R governor has been a complete disaster for his party. Nice pick-up for Kerry, and one that could put him over the top (not by itself of course).

Kerry 275, Bush 226

*NEW MEXICO (5 EV--5 Polls)
-Mean: Bush 47.2, Kerry 45.2
-Median: Bush 47, Kerry 46

Poll Note: taken by itself, today's Zogby would be an outlier--I've left it in since Zogby has shown Bush consistently ahead, and also just due to a small number of data points.

Analysis: I don't really know what's going on here. I am certain that Bush doesn't lead by 9. Of the five polls this month, Kerry leads in two of them, and one is a tie; while Zogby and Mason-Dixon have Bush up significantly. My general reaction to Zogby is that he does his best work in western states, and his numbers are all over the place (it was only Bush +3 two days ago); the state's got a popular Dem governor, and all evidence suggests that Bush will not increase his share of the national Hispanic vote. If one were to accept the polling average as is, Kerry would need to take 70% of the undecideds for a victory here--again, perfectly, reasonable, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. Overall, though everything in my gut tells me that NM is staying blue, and Bush wouldn't be spending Monday night there if he thought it was safe. The polls are almost certainly under-estimating Spanish-speaking voters. Kerry squeaks by in what may tbe closest state in terms of number of votes, as it was in 2000.

Kerry 280, Bush 227

*PENNSYLVANIA (21 EV--16 Polls)
-Mean: Kerry 48.4, Bush 44.7
-Median: Kerry 48.5, Bush 45.0

Analysis: Bush's numbers are horrible here--of all 16 polls this month, he's never been higher than 47 amongst RV's, and the Repubs have largely pulled resources from the state. Rendell has a great machine in the urban areas. Staying blue, easily.

Kerry 301, Bush 227

*WISCONSIN (10 EV--8 polls)
-Mean: Kerry 47.3, Bush 46.6
-Median: Kerry 47.5, Bush 46.0

Analysis: I long thought of WI as Bush's best shot to pick up a Gore state, but I think that's Iowa now. WI has been slowly but surely trending blue the whole month, and the Springstein rally was just the perfect way to culminate it--turnout will be massive here, lots of young voters; and the third parties will have a role. I think that Bush's best shot here was if his guys could win the ground game, and based on everything I've seen and read, I don't think they can. Kerry wins a tight race here--and it's critically important that he do so.

Total Projection: Kerry 311, Bush 227