This is a prediction model.  My opinion is that his previous Hillary prediction model didn't pan out well suggests that election prediction models are useless.  But anyhow, I think some liberals here were happy about Silver models until this moment.

to watch Robert gasp and clutch his pearls.  Lol

You realize she only needs 270 right?

You realize both Silver predictions can't be true at the same time.  Anyhow, I don't trust models.

But of course you were dishonest and sycophantic AGAIN in your OP and I had to point out the truth. Glad I could educate you. And of course CDL steps in poop again. Are the bottom of his shoes ever free of dog shit? lol.

Silver is saying that Kamala is holding on by a thread but that she is TRENDING to lose.  You do understand trending analysis, right?  

Good for you for acknowledging the truth!  Just like cicadas coming out, you tell the truth every 17 years. lol.

Gotta say that Silvers model is stupid.  What's with fractional electoral votes. That's not the way it works.  They are not only whole integers, they are clumped by state in most cases.  
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Silver should pick winning and losing states and assign electoral votes accordingly. Fractional votes have no bearing on the underlying reality and therefore can only mislead.

I summarized what Silver was saying.  Where did I say I agreed with him?  You know, when you attribute quotes to me that I didn't say when they are right here on the thread, it makes you look both desperate and not very bright, but you be you and I'll be me.  

And, given your posting history, the obvious assumption is you DO agree. At least man up and admit the obvious. Until then, you're the one who appears "not very bright."

Robert the Simp and doubling down on attributing a quote to me that I didn't make?   You know the old saying about  
A-S-S-U-M-E?  Well, here you are trying to sell your assumption as fact.  You just flipped YOURSELF into the "not very bright" group.

And certainly your repetition of old lines is VERY tired. As is your reading comprehension. All I said was you clearly DID have a point of view. And this is undeniably true.
To deny it is clearly "not very bright."

Georgia has started posting its absentee file.  Comparison to 2020.

I don't know what source you are referring to, but some states allocate electors by county. I.e., in most states, the entire slate of N electors goes to whoever wins the state (by simple statewide majority). It is possible to win a single county in, say, Nebraska, and be awarded the electors for that county: N total electors are allocated into N(county) for candidate A and [N(total)-N(county)] for candidate B.
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Is THAT what Silver meant by "fractional"?

In the Nate Silver chart above there is a column of predicted electoral votes.  It has 272.1 for Harris and 265.9 for Trump.  Electors are real individuals and can't split their individual vote.  It is either 1 or nothing.  So the .1 and .9 make no sense.  I don't know if there are state combinations that can add up to 272/265 but my guess is his model is not allocating correctly by state due to the fact that he used those .1 and .9 fractions.  

In addition I was just reading this earlier......

BOTH the RCP and 538 have her winning the electoral college as of now. The link below is the same one Lester and CKS kept telling us it was worthy of our trust...but only when Trump was ahead I guess?.

I’ve seen another map where it’s Trump with 270 and Harris with 268.  What I’m expecting is a Trump bump after the September 10th debate. It looks like Harris is trying to back out of it, but I think she’ll end up debating while griping about the rules being unfair.

Did you forget all those posts?

Oops, your right, the lead is even better than originallyposted!😃

"Silver elaborated on the reasoning for Harris falling behind on the probability model in another Substack piece. He gave three main points as to why Harris's chances at victory were declining: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. not only dropping out of the race but actively endorsing Trump, poor polls for Harris in Pennsylvania, and a disappointing post-Democratic National Convention bump."

Again , who’s main investor is Peter Thiel.., that should tell you a lot

Hmm, how did Peter Thiel engineer RKFjr endorsing Trump, poor poll results for Kamala in Pennsylvania, and no DNC polling bounce?  That guy must be magical!!!

There has been ZERO bump from RFK Jr, she doesn't have "poor" results in PA as Trump was leading Joe there by 5 just 2 months ago and she LEADS there now, and neither candidate got a convention bounce.

No wonder Lester cherry picks that one! Notice how he dodged your point about polymarket? That is who Lester is. He is a bad faith actor. He uses only what is beneficial to his TDS at the moment and disregards all other evidence to the contrary.

He’ll forget he ever trashed it as biased.

Run away now little boy. Mommy is calling you.

What a pathetic little worm.

You also have Alan Licks-men backing you up.  (No pun intended.)

However Silver thinks things might turn better for Harris in the next few days as he sees some better polls for her coming and also apparently his own model starts to uncorrect for anticipated convention poll bounce.

More of your passive aggressive “he’s not playing fairly”  bullshit without mentioning what the actual issue is. If you have a question for me, just fucking ask it.  

"BetaBob" is almost as weak as his endlessly repeated "soy-boy."
And stop pretending you can't read this thread and actually respond to his point.

I did answer his points, he just didn’t like the counterpoints.  If he wants to restate a question, I’m happy to answer. But this “he’s not playing fair” whining is a pussy move and you know it.

Where did you get the idea that I said RCP was invalid and/or infallible? I point alternative data and analysis and you proceed to shit your pants? What’s with that?

He just makes shit up. He is not intellectually honest about anything. Not really a worthy opponent.

It's so ironic seeing Fester accuse anyone of making shit up or being "intellectually dishonest."
Why? Because Fester is routinely busted here for distorting information of all kinds, not to mention outright lying.
Right, Duchess? She's Fester in drag.

Spreading propaganda on Twitter 😂😂😂
See, you’re the kinda stooge they were after all along . I see you fell for it
🤣🤣🤣
And you threw on the Polymarket post ..,😊
Simple minds…😉

-- Modified on 9/6/2024 8:40:34 AM

Rasmussen overnight polls getting a little noisy coming out of the holiday weekend.   Trump still maintaining a 1 or 2 point lead in the popular vote if averaged over five previous days.

Oops.

RCP uses Rasmussen and so does Nate Silver.

Also I look to polls mostly for trends.  In a close race like this, even a small weighting difference can mean success or failure of the predicted winner.

Seem like his polling data favors Trump, even some poll by 2 high schoolers.
I dunno … I’m smelling a rat here
Lichtman… you’re looking better

Patriot Polling, the outfit that was started by two high schoolers (now college students) in 2020 currently has Harris ahead by 1.9, almost matching the RCP aggregate of 1.8.  

Def a rat. Embarrassing for Lester. He has touted Silver, Polymarket, Trafalgar and "Rassy." 538 has destroyed Trafalgar and Rassy and Silver now tied to Polymarket. Yep! They are all dirty. You busted Lester again! lol.