Hmmm! Between alienating the police and firemen's unions, and a greater than predicted increase in non-whites, reflected in the 2010 census, Republicans may have to re-invent themselves. Fast!
And I don't care, because we'll just have to see. But I think the Wisconsin battle terribly damaged the Republicans with a big part of their base. Now all the other stars are aligning:
1) Obama shows some backbone on Libya.
2) Republicans over-reach in many states (Kasich will be a one-term Governor in Ohio).
3) Republicans have done nothing to promote job growth with their Congressional majority and the jobs picture is improving without them. Can't wait to see them try to take credit for it when they've done zip.
4) A group of Presidential candidates that is underwhelming, to say the least. Their best candidate is Tim Pawlenty, for God's sake, who seems to have had his charisma removed at birth. He looks good only by comparison with Bachmann, Palin, Gingrich, etc. With a bozo almost guaranteed to be at the head of the ticket, the outlook is poor for 2012.
Yes, we've got a long way to go but it looks like the usually feckless Democrats have been given a great gift -- an opponent even more incompetant than they are.
The jobs picture is improving? We have one month, the first month of jobs over 200K. Will you point to the 8.8% rate, which is not a true indication of the unemployment rate. I hate to tell you this, but the majority of companies did a helluva job during this past recession employing better technology and business processes. They don't have to employ the same number as before the recession. But if you think a whole bunch service jobs are good, so be it.
Backbone on Libya? Come on. You got a country of just 6M living in a desert with a lot of oil. Let's be honest. Libya could disappear tomorrow, and nobody would get a shit. Let's see some backbone on Syria.
First of all, the 8.8 rate is not in isolation. It is just the best number in a trend that's been improving for several months. As for Libya, I knew there'd be a reaction like this. You are one of a large group that wants to look at the glass as half empty. I guarantee you that if this was going on under Bush you'd see the glass as half full (or maybe entirely full) and would be accusing those of us on the other side of wanting America to fail.
Improving for several months? Look at job growth following past recessions and you will see job growth in the 300K to 400K range. The recession officially ended almost 2 years ago. You need a minimum of 125K a month just to keep the unemployment rate steady due to population increase. At 200K per month, it will take 10 years or more to get the rate down to 5 or 6%. And this is from an unemployment rate that is probably 12% or more. Companies don't have to hire at the same level as they did following other recessions. Add the fact that state and local will continue to shred jobs at a 30K a month clip for a few years. I don't like it anymore than you, but it's just a fact of life. Plus 90% or more of the unemployed don't have the education, skills or competency. Put yourself in the position of a hiring manager. Would you hire someone that's been out of work for 2 years. I wouldn't.
I ain't playing the liberal position of "I hope Bush fails in Iraq." All I'm saying is that Libya should be an easy one. But that's going to require someone to put a bullet in Kaddafi's head, so this thing ends fast. I'm still trying to figure out what the Obama Doctrine is, but he will be very selective going forward, and if Syria, and/or the Gulf countries target their own citizens, I seriously doubt Obama will use force.
I agree unemployment is still severe and will be hard to eradicate. However, since posting my first response I've learned that the trend has been upward for nine straight months. Strong enough? No. But it's hard to argue that things are not going the right way. For Obama to be re-elected it will not require 5-6% unemployment, just a feeling that things are getting better. And it's still true that the Republicans have yet to engage on jobs.
As for Libya, I, too, hope someone puts a bullet in Ghadaffi's sick head. The Obama doctrine, agee with it or not, was pretty clearly expressed on Monday night. If you disagree, fine. But the "doctrine" isn't hard to figure out. And, no, I'm quite sure he won't use force in Syria. It's a very, very different situation and a much tougher nut to crack.
-- Modified on 4/1/2011 7:24:09 PM
That would be somewhere at the end of 2007, let us say in the 4Q, 2007. So, there was no recession to begin with.
Putting my self as a hiring manager, yes I will and have and am looking for ~ 5 skilled Java programmers. Know any one?
The antiquated belief that a hiring manager would not hire someone out of job for a any length of time is gone in the early nineties when companies started laying off people left and right and hire when business picks. The labor market and Human Resources adjusted to market trend.
Obama doctrine is very simple, don't be Cowboy who shoots first, aim second and draw third. Use diplomacy, have an International mandate, get allies to do what they signed up to do and stop United States of America being the "World Cop".
The real irony is, as a country we never created these problems by arbitrarily drawing boundaries where ever we liked across the world; French and the British solely own that honor but we got dragged into it at the end of WWII. If we were smart then, we would not have been the World Cop.
These things have a way of solving itself with time and that is what we are seeing ME and N. Africa.
I said the recession ended ALMOST 2 years ago. Let's see, it's April 2011. Subtract 2 years. What do you get? You get 2009. I said almost 2 years. The recession officially ended in June 2009, hence the word "almost".
You want Java programmers. Pay more than your competition, offer sign on bonuses, get your share of H1B visas, or have the work performed offshore. It's pretty simple.
-- Modified on 4/2/2011 9:02:24 PM
Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 10.0% in March -- down from 10.2% in mid-March and 10.3% at the end of February, but above the 9.8% at the end of January. U.S. unemployment was 10.4% at the end of March a year ago.
However, contrary to the federal government's recent job reports, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment measures suggest that recent job increases have not been sufficient to significantly improve the jobs situation so far in 2011. Although both of Gallup's measures were marginally better in March, they remain higher now than they were in January.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146900/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-Rate-March.aspx
-- Modified on 4/1/2011 1:49:14 PM
Poll.
Recent data came from ADP, the largest payroll processor in the world. They have the most accurate data because they don't have to poll, all they have to is count the number of paychecks they processed month over month.
Absurd data doesn't prove squat in this instance.
Recent data came from ADP, the largest payroll processor in the world. They have the most accurate data because they don't have to poll, all they have to is count the number of paychecks they processed month over month.
Absurd data doesn't prove squat in this instance.
They come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is considered non-partisan even by Republicans. Don't you think Boehner, et. al. would be blasting the latest #s as politically skewed if that were the case? It's like the numbers from the Congressional Budget Office. No one seriously contests their being non-partisan.
-- Modified on 4/3/2011 7:26:44 AM
-- Modified on 4/3/2011 7:26:44 AM
-- Modified on 4/3/2011 3:12:17 PM
I agree that the headline unemployment rate of 8.8 % is a soft number that does not really tell us much bc the margin of error is high bc of the household sample taken. Plus this number does not include people who have given up looking for jobs.
But what the media refers to as the jobs report – actually the increase by 216,000 in nonfarm payroll employment – is a fairly positive indication. That number included 17,000 manufacturing jobs; 37000 in health care; 14000 in mining and 37000 in leisure and hospitality.
As to the 78,000 increase in service jobs, only 29,000 was temporary help which is not a bid deal. But there was an increase of over 35000 in professional and technical services.
And there is a smaller margin of error on this number bc of the larger sample.
So I for one was relieved by the jobs report today. Didn't help the folks at my favorite pizza joint Sbarra as they were driven into bankruptcy today by another LBO, but that's another story.
Hey look, the market was happy with today's number. If the market is happy, then I'm happy. We will have to wait and see in the following months if we can first get in excess of 300K jobs per month, and second a higher percentage of higher quality jobs, i.e. not service sector jobs.
Normally we count on housing and construction to help lead us out of recessions. Not this time. The good news is that housing is now a much smaller percentage of GDP, that going forward into the next recession, it won't be this big overhand.
I'm going to avoid the "all you can eat" Olive Garden jokes. I'll leave that to you and the Vegas king of buffets.
-- Modified on 4/1/2011 6:01:46 PM
I can't even get my monies worth at Todai. And, gone are the days of 2nd and 3rd helpings at Thanksgiving.
but otherwise I agree with you.
think he'll let you feast on his "baklava" ?---------
Besides, there are no gays in Iran so I'm afraid your link is faulty.
Didn't I see that guy working at the buffet the last time I was there?
The Tea Party movement will fire up again around election time and deliver another Dem as kicking just like last time.
You have to understand, unlie Government Union members, most Tea Party members have JOBS THAT REQUIRE THEY ACTUALLY SHOW UP TO WORK. They are quiet now, working for a living but will rise again as election time nears....
THe Tea Baggers are not exactly under wraps right now. Last weekend thye ran a big dog-and-pony show in Iowa and had all the Republican hopefuls jumping through hoops to prove who was the most conservative.
As usual, the primary process forces Dems to run to the left, and Reps to run to the right. Then, during the general election, they both run back to the center where the swing votes are. Problem is, the Tea Baggers are forcing the Reps to run further to the right than usual and they'll have a hell of a time convincing the swing-vote independents they have any credibility left.
With the debt at the point it is now, I would say the center has moved considerbaly to the right.
Think about it, debt is an issue almost everyone can understand. If the tea party (btw, you deman yourself and your own credibility by using middle school insults) can hold back the religious elemts, they will win on the government debt issue.
until you tried your "you demean yourself ...by using middle school insults." ROFLMFAO!!!! You can't be serious! Try going back and reading some of your own posts! Oops! You're right! Your insults don't even reach the middle school level. Can you spell credibility? Apparantly. But you also don't seem to know (or at least live by) the definition.
"If" the Tea Party can control the religious fanatics that give credence to you lefties calling them Tea Baggers, the Tea Party's underlying message, smaller government, lower taxes, etc resonate well with most of America.
Unfortunately the libs have done a great job portraying the Tea Party as a bunch of racist, religious nut jobs, and the Tea Party itself has made that job much easier for the libs to do.
So Snow has a very valid point, except I would spell "IF" with a capital I, since I believe it is going to be difficult for the Tea Party to distance itself from it's "religious kook" fringe, and show itself to be more mainstream.
That's exactly what I did say, and would have kept it to that, had it not been for his condescending -- not to mention disingenuous -- comment. Sheesh! Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
BTW, if oyu would bother doing some homework you might find that except for some tongue in cheek, most of my posts are directed at policies or traits that can be proven...
More than I can say for many on this board, like you here posting stuff based on your feelings....
Virtually every statement you've made in this part of the thread is your opinion, a prediction which, by definition, isn't a fact. Try again, snow.
and the reply to what I actually said.
I said my posts were directed at policies. i.e. I do not jump to personal attacks...
I leave that to the looney left, a tool they need so badly because they can not back up their arguments.
I actually agreed with most of what you said, but then made the cardinal sin of referring to your beloved Tea Party as "Tea Baggers." You then ignored the jist of my post and only responded to that dig. I then had the temerity to point out you also used nasty words to refer to those with whom you disagreed. Intollerable! You really need to go back and read this thread, though I doubt you'd realize a damn thing!
It's Apparently, not Apparantly....
We can do that spell crap all day, bottom line is I respond quickly because most of the responses here do not require a lot of thought...
And sorry to burst your bubble, but you are not really worth my time to worry about my spelling.
When you can actually articulate a good argument against my points, then you will get my attention...
You mistook my line about "can you spell credibility" as criticising your spelling but you never used that word. I was using irony (as in "can you spell irony?") to suggest you were lacking in credibilitiy but you're too dense to get it. In fact, I only rarely join the Spelling Police because it's pointless. As for your condescension, it's the last refuge of someone who is apparently so frustrated that he can only sling pointless insults. From my perspective, your arguments are poorly reasoned, intellectually barren and "not really worth my time" either. I have no interest in getting your attention, valueless as it is.
I hear oyu post beliefs, but have never seen you disprove any of my posts.
You must think your opinions constitute fact.
LMAO!!!
It is clear that either:
1) you haven't actually read my posts.
2) don't know the difference between fact and opinion
3) do know the difference but don't care.
4) believe your opinions automatically become facts.
Either way, it's impossible to have a rational discussion with you. What a surprise!
"Problem is, the Tea Baggers are forcing the Reps to run further to the right than usual and they'll have a hell of a time convincing the swing-vote independents they have any credibility left."
The problem you don't see, from the crowd you keep, swing voters are extremely disappointed, and disgusted more than polls will show.
We'll have to see how things turn out. But right now it's as good a theory as any. BTW, what "crowd" do I keep? I'm an equal opportunity flamer of both the left and right. Just ask Willy! LOL!
inicky46 "BTW, what "crowd" do I keep? I'm an equal opportunity flamer of both the left and right."
The juvenile cultish crowd of followers, who swallow bunk,licking their leaders nuts, while referring to Tea party members, as Tea baggers.
a Tea Bagger. But in your case I suspect Tea Bagging is your sexual preference as well as political.