Earlier this week a poster started a thread that avocated that all Jewish people vote Republican.  The writer of the article that proposed the idea, which the thread poster apparently supported, gave reasons why he felt the way that he did.
    I instinctively realized that the proposal was wrong but did not have any facts at my disposal and did not have time to gather any.  I thought about the issue and gathered some data that, I think expresses why Jews, instead of voting enmass Republican, should continue to split their vote between the two major parties.
    Currently about 30% of Jewish voters vote Republican.  By inference, 70% either vote Democratic or for some other party, the reasonable assumption is that nearly 100% of the non-Republican votes are for Democrats.  The poster of the thread that I mentioned earlier proposed that the Jewish vote for Republicans go to 100%.  I think that in the best case, it should not go to more than 50%-60%.  The 50%-60% region is a "safe" region where Jews cannot be identified as big supporters of either party, this allows proper exercise of influence within each party without the burden of being identified as a special interest group.
    There is a currently hidden and compelling reason why US Jewish people should maintain influence in both major political parties.  This reason is the political relationship between Jewish interests and events in the Middle East.  Events in the Middle East are of interest to people in the US that are of Islamic religion.  In 1965, the Jewish percentage of the population was ~3%.  1965 was the year that the United States reopened immigration to the US for skilled Islamic people from the Middle East, that immigration had been closed since 1924.  The islamic population has grown since then, with the most rapid growth taking place in the last 24 years.  The growth in the last 24 years has been concentrated among the more radical segments of Islam, as opposed the the growth during the preceeding years, which was from the more educated, skilled and moderate members of that faith. Currently people that identify themselves as Jewish make up 2% or the US population.  People that identify themselves as Islamic make up 1.3% of the US population.  The Jewish birthrate is stagnant or declining (no net replacement growth in the population of that group), while the Islamic growth rate is among the highest of any US population group.  It is completely plausible that within 10 years or less, the Islamic population will overtake the Jewish population here in the United States and will ultimately exceed the Jewish population in a manor similar to what has happened between Blacks and Hispanics (the Black population has fallen from 12.3% in 1965 to 12.1% in 2001, while the non-white Hispanic population grew past 12.5% in 2001.  Hispanics have a far higher birthrate than Blacks and a somewhat lower deathrate, so the expectation is that Hispanics will grow to be a much larger group than Blacks).
    So one would ask, how does the gibberish about population growth have anything to do with how Jews should vote?  It has everything to do with how Jews should vote.  If Jews go 100% Republican, then it is logical to expect that US citizens that identify themselves as Islamic would ultimately vote 100% Democratic.  Since the Islamic population will more than likely be larger in 10 years or less, they would have more power via their identification with a single party.  Ultimately a situation will exists that is similar to France today, where the Islamic population overwhelmingly out numbers the Jewish population, with the two groups taking vastly different political voting paths.  Jews in France are having a difficult time with the loss of influence, even though French Jews have significant economic power (in Media, Industry, Medicine, the Arts, ect).
    It is better for both US Jewish people and US Islamic people to split their votes between the two major parties.  It is especially important for Jews to do so, given the expectation that they will be outnumbered by Islamic voters in the near future.  By splitting their votes between the two parties, Jews can use the inter-party mechanisms to continue to have their voice heard on a consistent basis.

I must say I have missed your posts. I don't agree with about half or even most of what you say but I have missed you intelligence.
I think that Jews will be overwhelmingly Republican when they just open their eyes and think.  I like to think that I am in a very elite group.  Look at Michael Medved, look at Michael Savage, look at Milton Friedman, look at Henry Kissinger.  All of us are ex-Democrats who have seen the light and are now---REPUBLICANS!!!!!
I think Europe is gonna kick ass too.  Sweden is having major major major trouble w/Islamofacist hooligans.  Most of the crime in Sweden is being cause buy Arab youth who are in gangs. The police in Sweden are afraid of them and go in w/triple backkup.  Same thing in Denmark and in France and in Spain. the Arab youth gangs are really causing trouble.

I know this is radical, but they should boot them out of Europe and send them back to their country of origin.  Yeah.

That we can all collectively work hard and intelligently, to ensure peace will follow?  Can't we see prosperity and peace after years of suffering on both sides?

I have seen it many times that muslims and jews work together in harmony here in California.  That makes me proud to have been born and bread in a State that can foster such relationships

And of course we also do have nutcases especially in other states that are dreaming of Armageddon!

about Jewish people voting 100% Republican (versus 30% now and 50% optimally) was that any massive shift to one political strategy would have unintended consequences.
    While it is probaly true that Jews and Islamic faith people work well toghether now in your state, that will not continue to be the case if one group moves collectively in one political direction under the belief that it will get political gain from such a move.
    One interesting thing that I saw in the internet data that I reviewed when researching the information for my post was that Islamic faith people are spread almost uniformly across the four major regions (East, South, West, North) of the country, I would have guessed differently, putting such people more in the cities of the Northeast, Midwest and California.  Jewish people, on the other hand were more concentrated in the Northeast and California, but have been migrating to other parts of the country during the move from Northeast and California cities to regions with lower cost of living expenses.

Not to complicate matters by introducing facts, but here goes.

1. The entire point is irrelevant.  Jews don't vote as a block.  In fact, they vote less as a block now than ever before (not as much single-issue voters as in the past).  Hell, I can't even get my parents to agree on dinner reservations ("what does a jewish wife make for dinner...") much less politics.

2. The Islamic-Jewish to Black-Latino analogy is flawed at many levels.  First, numbers: blacks and latinos = 25% of vote, jews and arabs maybe 3%.  Second, economics: yes, money does drive power, and the jews as a group have more of it than african americans, whereas new arab immigrants don't have that much more of it than their latino counterparts.

3. "50%-60% region"..."not be identified as a special interest group".  LOLOLOLOL.  For a non-aligned benign group, they sure get alot of discussion here!

I think reality is that, with all the nonsense in the middle east and the inability of either party to solve it, more and more jews will vote independent of their religion which, I suspect, probably puts alot of them into the socially-liberal (pro choice, civil rights) and economically conservative (low taxes) group.

the Church of Aryan Nation members.  You are at the right place, with the Republican Party.  Stay there.  Henry Kissinger, and Michael Wiener Savage!  What a great company!  Let's see if you could get Mr. Kissinger to go to Belgium [something to do about when he was Secretary of State!]

Having spent a lot of time in Europe, both on business and pleasure, you are obviously blind to the prevalent anti-Semitism in Europe of even today.  You have also conveniently forgotten the language you have used, was the one used by those who gassed a whole group of people.  

The words used by you, and thoughts, are embarrassing to all those who have gone through the Holocaust, and have been the victim of racism, bigotry, misplaced patriotism, and fascism.  Guess which group has experienced these the most throughout the history of Europe?

Go read about something called J'Accuse (by emile zola),learn about Captain Dreyfuss, and then cry in shame when you are celebrating brutalization of Arabs in Europe.

Also, just watch how your Republican friends, if they fall behind in the polls again, will bring up Kerry's jewish ancestry.  Already, the co-author of the book, "Unfit for Command", has a well documented record of attacking Kerry's jewish roots.  His name is Jerry Corsi.  

Here is some of the remarks:  "After he married TerRAHsa, didn't John Kerry begin practicing Judaism? He also has paternal grandparents that were Jewish. What religion is John Kerry?"


-- Modified on 9/19/2004 1:49:41 PM

I agree that Jewish people do not vote as a block.  Their political split is not 30% Republican, 70 something else.  That is hardly block voting.  But having said that, the poster that I was responding to suggested that Jewish voters indeed become block voters (read, 100% for one party).  I think that this would be suicidal for Jewish people if they hope to continually influence the political discussion in this country.

    On the issue of the percentage of Jewish/Islamic voters as compared to Black/Hispanic voters.  I think you missed my point.  Generally, Black and Hispanic voters mostly do not care about what happens in the Middle East, unless those events clearly affects them.  They have other political agendas.  Jewish and Islamic voters have more personal interest in what happens in the middle east and if the situation comes down to a vote contest, in the near future, between Jewish people and Islamic people, Jewish people are going to lose unless they have influence in both major parties.  The distribution of Islamic faith people is uniform across the USA.  There are about 3.5 million of them now, with one of the highest measured live birth rates of all USA ethnic or religious groups.  Within 10 years the Islamic population will surpass that of the Jewish population in this country (3.5 million now versus 5.5 million Jewish people now, but the Islamic birthrate is very high, while the Jewish birthrate cannot match the Jewish deathrate (negative population growth)).  The uniform distribution of Islamic people, when coupled with larger numbers, would allow them to impact Senate races, US House races, and impact the Electoral College votes for President - this assumes that they vote as a block, which for the time being seems not to be the case.
    On the issue of economic power.  With the Black and Hispanic populations at ~12.5% and the Jewish population at 2%, it takes one Jewish person earning $120,000 per year to match either six Blacks or six Hispanics that earn only $20,000 per year.  But the issue that I raised was not about Black and Hispanic economic power versus that of Jews.  The issue is that once a group loses the strength of numbers, economic power becomes largely irrelevant.  France is a perfect example, where the numerical power of Islamic faith people has marginalized the economic power of Jewish citizens because the number of Jewish people there is a tiny fraction of the Islamic people that are citizens there, and that situation is only getting more lopsided, not less.
    With elections being decided more often by a fraction of a percentage point, a group that wields 1% influence can determine the winner or loser.  Such power will happen for Jewish people during the future only if they spilt their numbers equally between the two major parties and avoid becoming a block vote for one.  Any attempt at block voting will probaly be neutralized by block voting, up to 100% by one of the larger groups.  Blacks and Hispanics come close to being Democratic block votes, but at around 85% and 80%, have not reached the level that the poster was proposing for Jews.  I honestly feel that Blacks and Hispanics are voting at the highest percentage for one party that will be seen, the number will drop back toward the 50% number in due time.  It would be a mistake for Jewish voters to go toward the near block vote status of Blacks and Hispanics, becuase the votes of those two groups are largely taken for granted and any benefit of them voting in such a fashion is short lived - also, there is little economic benefit gained for them by their votes.

I predict that THE BEST PARTY IN AMERICA- THE REPUBLICAN PARTY--will get more and more and more Hispanic and more and more Black votes and people find out the THE REPUBLICAN PLARYT IS THE BEST PARTY.  The REPUBLICAN party is the populist party. The REPUBLICAN party is the party that cares about ALL PEOPLE and wants to help all people.
Long live the Republican Party! Godspeed to the Republican paty

Hate to interrupt you in the middle of political ejaculation, but more likely: there won't be a United States, and the only way you republicans are going to make people see the light is to send the stubborn and uncooperative to the Gulags.  

Remember, the Communist party was the "best party" to its members in its heyday, too.  So were the Nazis.  Those who thought so weren't just acting.  

/Zin    

-- Modified on 9/19/2004 8:04:35 PM

in the mirror and I can live with myself.

Well, not really.

1) Political concentration actually builds power, not dispersion.  Read any article on gerrymandering and you'll see its all aimed at making distributing minorities evenly and not allowing them to control any single voting district.  By concenrating themselves in selected communities, jews consolidate power.  By dispersing themselves (about which I've seen no data but will take your word for it), islamic people dilute their power.  

2) France is an extreme example where Muslims far exceed Jews in population, by multiples.  The projections you're making don't come close to that.  And, if you're arguing that "economic power is irrelevant", where are you when these "jews control the media, business, etc." bullshit comes up from the intestines of paranoid, unaccountable (and probably out of work) whiners.

Like it or not, I don't think the political influence the jews have will waver much in the foreseeable future.  What will happen...I hope...is that the jews will not be as blindly pro-Israel in their politics.  The popular statistic is that 70% of israelis favor peace with the palestinians.  That number goes even higher for American jews who are growing disenfranchised with the situation in the middle east.


-- Modified on 9/20/2004 6:01:24 AM

``Arab youth gangs'' this and ``Arab youth gangs'' that.  FT69 also claims much of Californias, in fact the USAs, problems are due to illegal immigrants (``Illegal immigrant gangs'' this and ``Illigal immigrant gangs'' that).  Seems the Repug political machine under (piece of shit) Wilson thought the same - Prop. 187.

The Repugs are the party for all people ?  Yeah, I can tell with your apparent respect for all people and the ``blame other people for all problems'' Repug machine.

At least FT69 has interesting stories and IMHO is quite a bit less obnoxious (albeit more sinister because so).
 

Republicans are now equal to  "communists and Nazis"?

Take a look around Pal, do you see the edge, you are now standing on it!  Talk about marginalizing yourself!

I believe you have less faith in our form of government than even sdstud, if that is possible.  You are quite a pessimist.  Even I who have a strong hatred for John Kerry know that this country can survive him for four or even eight years!  

That said, even a partisan, ideologue like yourself can see that the politics of America are pulling away from the leftist, socialist movement.  Proof of that is with Republicans in the minority in this country, they still hold the majority in both houses and stand to make great gains in this election.  Why would that be?  Could it be that the Democratic Party has moved so far to the left that it has left its base with no other choice but to vote Republican?  It sure seems obvious to me.

Moderate Democrats don't have a chance or a voice in your party anymore, the money comes from the extreme wacko left, i.e. Hollywood, Soros et al.  Good men like Senator Lieberman can't get the money to make a serious run in anything but a small state.  The powers of the DNC are so far left that moderates look conservative to you loons.

If that continues, so will the Democrat Parties decline.  Like it or not.  If you want to be angry with someone, you might pick up a mirror and listen to what you say and write.

You appear to be right that very large numbers of Israelis, if not very large majorities want peace.  But the stumbling blocks are radicals on both sides.  The best thing that Palestinians can do is to shoot the jihadists on their side in the head, the the extreme right in Israel would have lost it's foundation.  Then maybe rational people on each side can freely build a great future for everyone in that region that wants one.
    I still think that you are wrong about the power of small percentage votes.  With a country as devided politically as we now appear to be, small percentages do determine winners.

to compare GOPGeezer to the Nazis.  One person talking about deporting whole classes of people, no matter how despicable, is hardly on the same level as what the Nazis did.

Jews will support Israel in droves.

...that you could draw upon for political purposes.  You're vivid description of pissing on Dan Rather when he's down proves that.    
This doesn't seem to an isolated violent fantasy for you either.

I'd rather be on the margins if you are in the majority pal!  If that's American, that's a cancerous version of it.  But I'm not going to argue over who's in the minority or majority.  That has nothing to do with sense or nonsense of it, or the right or wrong of it.  The fact that your side is gaining popularity does not mean you are offering any idea better or more intelligent: it means you are better at deceiving and manipulating, and perhaps better at it still, when you are deceived yourself.  This is especially true when you are selling beliefs, feelings, ideas and a rhetoric, which is all the public are buying right now.  

Also, whether your gaining converts or not makes no difference in the stand I'm taking against it now.  As conservatives are fond of saying: the truth never changes, and definitely not due to a vote.  

Republicans are winning due to gerrymandering (as in Texas), the years of a poor education system, their having subverted the purportedly liberal media, and their generally "fixing" the system so that only they could win, as in the last presidential election.  

I won't too much miss the Democratic Party if it declines, believe it or not.  As I said, I'm too worried that there will be no United States.  Triage is important here. I have said, "Failed State by '08," but frankly, I don't think you Republicans can accomplish it before '12.

I will never look in the mirror and say, "It's all my fault," because it isn't.  Sell your guilt somewhere else, Bribite.  I'm not buying.  Back when I was a Rush Limbaugh fan in 1993, I looked in the mirror.  What I saw frightened me.  

/Zin

-- Modified on 9/21/2004 12:11:20 AM

-- Modified on 9/21/2004 10:08:17 PM

I'm not saying that small blocs don't matter.  Its just that, in our 2 party system, they work much better when they are concentrated in a particular voting geography.  Think of it this way, if you will

Assume there are 5Million Jews in the US out of 250Million people (about 2% of pop'n).

Scenario 1: If all of them live in NY (extreme example but often seems true if you're having pre-theater brunch in Midtown), then they have maybe have 25% of the state population.  That gives them huge power over the 2 senate seats.

Scenario 2: Even more extreme, if they all live in NYC, then they probably make up 50% of the population and maybe 75% of Manhattan.  They would dominate the House elections in those districts.

Scenario 3: If they are evenly distributed throughout the US, then they only have 2% of the vote in any given place.  While that's a nice little group, it basically has minimal power in any kind of election.

This is much different in a parliamentary system with minority parties.  In most of Europe (or Israel, for that matter), this 2% might get you a House of Commons seat.  In the US, it get you a squat.  No complaints, mind you, just the facts.