Politics and Religion
Democrats are hemorrhaging support with voters of color
Earlier this week, John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times posted a thread that purported to show substantial losses for Democrats among non-white voters, which he termed a “racial realignment”.
Many Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters have long identified as moderate or conservative rather than liberal, and Burn-Murdoch theorizes that Democrats’ tilt toward more liberal policies (though I’d prefer to call them “left” or “progressive” rather than “liberal”) is catching up with them, especially as memory of the Civil Rights Era fades.
The data shows up most prominently in polls, which has led to considerable poll denialism among Democrats, but an analysis of voting results shows the pattern is bearing out on election days. But polls, schmolls. Is it really plausible that there could be swings this large when it comes to actual votes? Sure. It’s at least plausible. Let’s look at data from two places where non-white voters are plentiful. One is somewhere I’ve never been to, Starr County in South Texas, and the other is the place where I live, New York City
Interesting nugget from the NYC analysis: But still, these trends are ominous for Democrats. In the Bronx, where less than 10 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white, Democrats went from winning the presidential race by 83 points in 2012 to winning the gubernatorial race by only 55 points in 2022, a 28-point swing. And there was a 29-point swing against Democrats in Queens — which is just 26 percent non-Hispanic white — between 2012 and 2022
