I did not know about Gambler’s Ruin. Wish I did several New Years Eves ago. Walking thru casino before check-in, I threw 100 into a wheel of fortune machine and first spin, hit 1000. Another thousand a few minutes later (slots often do hit in twos) and I was feeling pretty good going on to check-in line.
Later in the evening I noticed a crowd around a slot bank offering a 16 thou plus payout. One guy was playing 3 at time but then gave up on the one his right. I asked if okay for me to try and he said, “be my guest, it hasn’t done a thing for me all night! A hundred goes in the slot and three 3 dollar pulls later, JACKPOT to the eternal consternation of my unknown friend who at this moment hated me! Thought I was pretty smart asking for a 10 thou check (which I did take home with me intact) and rest in cash. Lost about a grand and then went to room to celebrate as planned. Next day, resumed at slots and won 6 one thousand dollar jackpots along with 2 five thousand dollar ones. Threw money around like crazy but went home with another 5 g check along with the original 10g. Problem came later and much later with 2 tax times over 2 years. If I knew about and used “system”, I might have gone home with more and perhaps enough more to pay taxes. Anyone else have a gambling experience to relate? The good, the bad, the uglyhe house advantage on slots is so huge to compensate you have to quit very early, like 10%.
So I take $100, divide it five ways, and play five games.
I quit when I'm up $2 or when I when $5 or more. If the machine is hitting, I play my second game there, if it's been a fight, I move on.
I punch out when I lose $10. At the end I have five ticket that I cash in. More than half the time I win $5 to $10, and every so often I lose about $30, but my goal is to spend "some" amount of time at the slots in case that one in million payout hits.
Otherwise most slot players view my strategy as "weird". Usually I play 9/6 Jacks or Better or the 25c three wheel low payout slots. I play the slots with the lowest "extra" payout for the maximum bet. This is because the slots are programmed to pay out a certain ratio and to compensate for a lower maximum payout they have to pay more lower payouts more frequently. I usually budget $100 for slot play during my visit.
For the most part I've been playing low limit poker. It is possible to play with a mathematical advantage at that game, but it's hard to develop the discipline and technical skill let alone the playing your adversary skill. And I have not been able to develop a good money management strategy at poker. Quitting the game after a big win is soooo tacky.
for knowing math, then you say here that money management can give you a mathematical advantage at a game. This is absolutely not true for the reasons I laid out in my other post. There is NO money management scheme that can change you chance of winning or losing per outcome.
ut it has nothing to do with money management.
Say you hold an A 2 of hearts and the flop contains two other hearts. The pot holds 20 dollars and the bet to you is $2.
Now there are nine cards in the balance of the 47 unseen cards, that's 5 to 1 odds to the high flush, with a 10 to 1 payout. That is a positive expectation bet. If you count your outs, and keep track of the pot size you can always bet like that and fold your other hands. There are also list of starting hands to play that win more than they loose. A pair of Aces or a pair of Kings for example, approximately 10% of all hands.
My problem is playing with tricky players, of course, and I HAVE NOT developed a good money management system (I'm not cashing out when I'm ahead).
I don't have a problem cashing out at a craps table after a big win, but doing that a a poker table is different (at least to me)
against the casino. I know you can win a live poker if you're enough better than the other players to be able to fade the house vig. Otherwise there would be no entrants to The World Series of Poker
In every slot machine. Meaning it just randomly generates a number which the slot machine turns into some sort of fun play for you but the RNG determines the outcome. The slot machine has not memory. In other words, it does not know a jackpot was just hit, and therefore it should make another one should hit, so they can "come in two's. If you think of flipping a coin and you flip 7 heads in a row and are getting ready to flip the 8th time what is the chance it will come up heads? More than 50% because you're "on a roll", less than 50% because "tails is due"? Answer this question to yourself before continuing.........
The answer is 50/50 because the coin has no memory. Yoju are trying to personify the coin (give it a personality). Don't feel bad, many people do this. You are doing the same with the slot machine--personifying it.
few people do. If you want to educate yourself, read any book by Jean Scott and you will find out the Mathematical truth.
Do you always have to be right? Or do you just like to debate and argue everything????
I was told a long time ago that one of the least attractive traits someone can have is a "know it all.
don't give my opinion unless I am pretty sure I know what I am talking about. Can't tell you the number of times I got directions from someone and they were totally incorrect (before GPS). Some people just don't want to say they don't know about something. In conclusion, no, I don't always have to be right but yes I am going to argue if I think I am participating in an area where I have some sort of expertise.
you in your area of expertise of say "do you have to be a know it all."
And I like to agree that I know what I am doing when it comes to that field...
What I have to remember is, not everyone enjoys it the same way. So I still have to be open to what other people suggest.
That is all I am getting at.
I didn't mean to attack you.. Or have the need for someone to come to your defense..
I simply meant a little humility can go a long way.
That is all. ![]()
not thinking of yourself as better than other people. : given or said in a way that shows you do not think you are better than other people. I don't think I am better than other people. There are areas that an am pretty much an expert (casino gambling, receiving deepthroat LOL) and in those areas I will tell people if I think they are wrong. There are other areas that other people are expert and I love to hear their opinion when they have educated themselves in a certain area. What I do not like is some of these posters who talk to other stupid (uneducated in the same area) people about things like beating the casino by employing money management techniques and then publishing it like they have done tons of research on it. So as a PERSON that does not make me better than other people, just a meek and mild person with areas of expertise.
Well Alyssa, you can take solace in the fact that Supadoggiestyle is not always right. As RokkKrinn pointed out in his post, there are some Video Poker games that do pay more than 99.6% if played perfectly.
talking about. Bopperman, next time you say it is 6.3 miles to somewhere, I will point out that you are "not always right" because it is actually 6.35 miles to that destination. I will take that kind of "wrong" information any day. Sorry for being off by 0.2% ( 1/5 of 1% for those of you who don't know math).
You said 9/6 is the best and that wasn't true. Your response of what percentage you are right just goes to show how right Alyssa's statement about you is.
You said "even the best video poker machines only return 99.6% and that's in you play perfectly"
and I said that wasn't true.
Your response of what percentage you are right just goes to show how right Alyssa's statement about you is
Start out as a MULTIMILLIONAIRE, and play high stakes Blackjack in Vegas, you'll become just a Millionaire soon enough. Too soon, actually, LOL!
To true!
Want to leave the table with chips? Buy in and cash right out. Lol.
I've been a "games player" of some kind my entire life, including vocationally (stock market and similar). Needless to say, part of the attraction of Vegas for me is the playing of games of chance, particularly those which are actually a skill game with a luck component (which is another way of saying that there is enough short-term variance that those who are long-term losers can win often enough that they can deceive themselves into thinking they are winners, or lesser losers than they actually are).
Gambler's ruin: Has several meanings, but the most common meaning today is that in any game where the player has a negative expected value, the player will eventually lose all his money, regardless of the betting system used. However, even this is bit of an oversimplification. If you and I bet on the flip of a coin (heads or tails) and each time we bet $1, $1, $1, and then one time decide to flip for $1,000,000 (yeah, yeah, I know, but this is just to illustrate a point), all those $1 flips become sort of irrelevant. Especially if, for example, I win the million dollar flip, and then decide I'm not playing the game again.
Gambler's ruin is about the long run. If you apportion your bets into little bite-sized chunks, in a game in which you have negative expected value you will lose eventually. If you apportion your bets into little bite-sized chunks in a game where you have positive expected value, you STILL might go bankrupt. The smaller the chunks are relative to the overall bankroll, the less chance of bankruptcy (ruin) there is. This is how casinos stay in business. In general, they're getting the best of it, and if someone "gets lucky" and beats them for a large amount of money, it doesn't matter. That person's win accounts for only a tiny percentage of the overall action that they're handling.
There's no betting system that will beat a slot machine sitting on a casino floor. If OP was lucky enough to win all those slot machine jackpots, and had difficulty at tax time, that just means that OP didn't set aside enough of his win to pay the IRS come April 15--that's not a gambling problem--that's a life problem.
Blackjack: Well, my blackjack action is not welcome in most casinos in Vegas--and it's not because I smell bad. They watch me, they know that I count cards, they see me varying my bets (and sometimes, my play) and generally winning most of my larger-size bets--which is the point of counting cards. It's beatable, while craps is not; dice have no memory, and past results have no bearing on future results. But in blackjack (assuming you're not playing at one of those awful continual reshuffler tables), every Ace that goes by is one fewer Ace which will be available to you to make blackjack on a future hand--so you bet smaller. When the deck is comparatively rich with Aces and 10s, you bet a lot more. Anybody can do this, it requires no great amount of skill, just some small amount of discipline and memory.
Flip a coin seven times and watch it come up heads every time: Ask a gambler this question, and he'll say, "Tails is overdue! Bet on tails!" This is definitely wrong.
A mathematician will say, "It doesn't matter, it's a 50/50 proposition." This is also probably wrong.
A statistician will say, "The chances of a coin coming up heads seven times in a row is 127 to 1. That's possible, but highly unlikely. Maybe the coin is actually not a fair coin (despite what I've been told). I'm betting heads." This is probably right.
Video poker: A "full pay" Jacks or Better video poker machine will in fact return 99.54% to a player employing perfect strategy. Again, perfect strategy not so hard to memorize. At my prime in video poker, I could and did execute perfectly, playing 700 hands an hour, on a "Triple Play" machine (=playing for $15 a spin, which = $10,500 of "coin-in" per hour--and that's the key number from the standpoint of casino management. Playing at that rate, with your little comp card in the machine will give you an additional 0.33% "cashback", which brings you up to 99.87%, which means you are "paying" 13 cents per $100, but will also generate room offers, show offers, other promotions, etc. You can't live on it, but you can make your trips to Vegas essentially free--although again, you need to have a large enough bankroll to reduce the chance of gambler's ruin. To reduce that chance to an infinitesimally small number, I had to have a video poker bankroll of about $55,000 set aside strictly for video poker play)
How do you know if it's a "full pay" machine? In general, look at the payouts per coin for the flush and full house. Full pay = 6 credits for the flush, 9 for the full house. If those numbers are smaller, pass and look for another machine or casino. Those flushes and full houses keep you in the game while you wait for the royal to come around.
There are other video poker machines that offer even higher base payouts. There are a small number of "Deuces Wild" machines that are 99.9% with correct strategy. And there are even a few that pay out 100.17% with correct play--these would be the "Double Bonus" machines set to full pay. But correct Double Bonus strategy is comparatively difficult to memorize--not impossible, but very hard.
(real) Poker: Now we're talking. A game where the house doesn't need you to lose for them to win. They make money by taking a small amount out of each pot (at lower limits) or taking a time charge from each player every half hour (at medium and high limits). As long as you have a skill advantage over most of your opponents, have a large enough bankroll, and that skill advantage is enough to also overcome the "invisible" player (the house, which always gets its share, the customary dealer tips, cocktail waitress tips, etc), Yeah, you can actually make money in the casino.
But remember again about gambler's ruin. The less-skilled player is "allowed" to win sometimes also. It can take a very long time for your superior skills to become evident in your P&L. So you engage in a discipline called "bankroll management" (somewhat different from "money management"). In practice, this means that you don't take your last $2000 in the world and sit down at the $25/$50 No-Limit Holdem table at the Bellagio. You sit and play 1/3 or 2/5, and work your way up. If you can't beat a game, you don't have to play in it. Switch to another table, or even consider stepping down in limits. That's the nice thing about poker; you can choose your opponents. If you don't like the lineups at any of the tables that meet your bankroll criteria, move to another casino, or take the day off.
"Money management" in poker is sort of irrelevant. If you're winning (and the win is due to your superior skill, not because you've gotten lucky) it means that you have good control over your opponents. As long as the game doesn't change (e.g., the drunk guys don't leave, the NBA star with all the bling who's showing off to his gf keeps splashing money around, etc) you stay in that game as long as you possibly can. Do whatever you need to do to keep yourself awake and alert as long as it doesn't interfere with your play. When the "live ones" do leave, and you don't think the new players coming in to take their seats offer you the same value, then you can consider leaving.
And: You're allowed to leave a poker game whenever you want. I know making a big score and leaving immediately is considered bad etiquette, but there are ways to be less obvious about it. Take a long rest room break, and then come back and pick up your chips, for example. Have your cell phone "ring", step away from the table, come back and pick up and say something about having to meet your wife, friends, whatever.
Thanks for stopping by, this has been another episode of "More Information Than You Require".... ![]()
From the New York Times, April, 2006.
I started this thread relating an unusual gambling experience hoping that others would relate same and we would all have some fun. Sadly, the thread has morphed backwards into relatively the same mathematical machinations I intended to leave behind.
I do not go to Las Vegas to gamble but when I do gamble it is just for fun; I expect to lose and I always stop at a given point win or lose. The only reason why I gambled as much as I did during the experience I related was I was playing with money I had won from the casino having taken a substantial amount out first that I did in fact take home.
As for my RockkKrinn friend, I did not say I did not have enough money to pay my taxes. It so happened over two taxable years that both casino winnings bumped me into a higher bracket because I was making money in many other ways and when you make money you pay taxes. Looking at it another way, I do not mind paying taxes because it means I am making money!
Technology has changed everything including the ways we invest in securities. Hedge funds and their high speed computers abound. They collude with one another, they buy and sell to each other and the SEC looks the other way. The only thing the individual investor can and should do is ignore the daily one to two point machinations up and down that translate into millions for the hedgies, buy on fundamentals for the long term, sell when fundamentals indicate reasonable profit, move on and NEVER margin!
Sorry, now I’ve gone and changed the intended subject too. Wish we could exchange some fun stories instead of everyone trying to show everyone else how smart they are
Note that this article was written in 2006. I don't believe the Nevada Gambling regulators have allowed this concept to happen.
Anybody have any concrete knowledge of this?
Sorry, my friend. Didn't know that you were looking for the fun stories, primarily.
Since nowadays my primary casino interest is playing poker at what some would call high stakes (Hey, way to not blow your cover, Rokk! You're well on your way to the TER Witness Protection Program!), I'm reluctant to talk about "fun stories", because it tends to run against poker etiquette.
If some dumb schmuck "runs you down" by chasing a long shot and hitting his miracle card on the end, and you grab every person you know to whine about it, that's what's known as a "bad beat" story--we've all been there, received them, given them at times, and it's just part of the game. Show me a player who always complains about bad beats, and I'll show you a loser (or at least a whiner--and nobody likes being around a whiner).
OTOH, if I start telling stories about my big wins, I look like a braggart; or a liar; or someone who thinks he's hot shit; or someone who has money to burn. It's something that's hard to pull off without making myself look bad.
I'll try to come up with some fun stories for ya the next time a thread like this comes around....
information being disseminated to the public. Just trying to help other TER members from getting bad info. You have inplied a more sinister motivation. We are doing this to "show how smart we are". That's not my motivation.
The house always has the statistical advantage....if not the casino would go out of business. Some games like Roulette are heavily tilted towards the house. Other games, like blackjack, while still statically advantaging the house, smart play can increase winnings or at least help minimize loss.
Suppose you were playing a coin flip game where if you lost you paid the casino a $1, but if you won the casino paid you .99c; would you play that game? That is blackjack with proper play, or the pass line at craps with 1x free odds.
If the casino paid you .98 1/2 cents would you play? That the straight pass line bet or placing six or eight at craps; except the way the casino does this is to pay you 7 to 6 when the odds are 5 to 6.
If the casino paid you .95 cent to your dollar would you play? That's roulette.
If the casino paid you .92 cents? That's 3 card poker and most of the Asian card games
If the casino paid you .85 cents? That's the big six wheel.
With slots it depends on the week of the month. If the machine hits the big payout that week, then for that week, they are paying 92 cents on a dollar. If it doesn't hit the big payout that week then it's paying .50 to .70 cents to the dollar.
Seriously your analysis and the author's theories are virtually the same as is the way you presented the data. The book convinced me it was possible to win but so tedious I would not enjoy one minute of applying his strategies.
I mean it is a grind as is described in your post..like a job you really hate thinking about going to every day.
Very useful information though and now I know...and knowing relieves me of any false hope about my chances.
On the other hand it can be fun knowing its a game of chance and you might win..set a budget and stick to it and see what happens.
Thanks for your most useful info!
Keep turning the chips in, or space it out over time, a big amount means an IRS form. If you do end up filling out the form make sure you get a form from them for the big losses as well to offset the income tax gain on the wins
If you're really "in danger" of winning a lot of money in a short amount of time, the best thing to do is a "gambling diary"; much easier to do this now than in the past--there are apps for all the smartphones that will assist you in this.
Whether doing it old school on paper or via an app, the idea is the same. Keep an ongoing diary of how much you bought in for, at what table (or machine #), how much you cashed out.
Also, collect losing tickets that are laying around the sports book. You don't have to go dumpster diving or anything, but all of those tickets that are laying around are sure to be losers, so they count toward "your" losses. Play the Powerball or whatever in your home state? Save those losers also. All of this stuff can be used to offset your wins. If you play poker tournaments a lot, definitely save your buy-in receipts.
Yes, it sucks that with the IRS, "guilty until proven innocent" is the policy; but that doesn't mean you have to be a total victim about it. There's all sorts of obvious ways to lower the impact of the big win.
btw, cashing in chips a little at a tine to avoid crossing the $10000 barrier is a big no-no (if you're caught), and will definitely put you on the radar of the Feds. If you go to the window with more than $5K of chips, you will be asked what table you played at, and be asked to give them your player card. Come back to that same casino within the next 24-hours (or even another casino owned by the same company) and do it again, and now you don't just get the Cash Transaction Report filed on you, you also get a Suspicious Activity Report filed. Those are really nasty.