Atlanta

Top 100 ATL providers - Bayesian Averaging
widmerpool70 2 Reviews 3412 reads
posted
1 / 35

This gives a more accurate ranking (assuming we are weighting looks and performance equally) than the current Top 100. It's similar to how IMBD might rank movies. It makes it fair between somebody with 200 reviews and somebody with 5.

Personally, I would not weight Looks/Performance equally but I figured it's a good start.

Top Three Movers: 1. Paige +59 spots, 2. Courtney +44 spots, 3. Sammie Jo +40 spots. Won't be invidious and mention people dropping. Everyone on the list is amazing. Just having fun with the numbers.

I will post a ranking just for performance and just for looks later...



New Rank Name Old Rank
1 Summershowers 1
2 Anya 3
3 Brooke and Madison 7
4 Meena 5
5 Evangeline LaCroix / Leina 2
6 Khori / Shelby 4
7 Jennifer 11
8 Morgan Marie 6
9 Madison O'Hare 20
10 Nina 8
11 Meagan 14
12 Brittany Cherry 9
13 Ellie / Erin Marxxx 18
14 Kellie 13
15 Dakota Koxx 21
16 Shelby 39
17 Cynamon 19
18 Gianna 23
19 Sara 22
20 Naomi Monroe 57
21 Jordan 24
22 Courtney 66
23 Paige 82
24 Gemma / Lauren / Gemma De Rossi 31
25 Alana / Natalie 26
26 Boston (Current) 15
27 Ashley James and Dakota 10
28 Ashley James 17
29 London 25
30 Ericka 50
31 Katie 32
32 Marie 27
33 Mary Jane 28
34 Nadine 30
35 Serena 62
36 Michaela 41
37 Ilana 16
38 Brooke 51
39 Sammie Jo 79
40 Rylie / Katie Kayne / Cheyenne 37
41 Sydney 55
42 Sophie 33
43 Celine / Gabriella 36
44 Larissa 34
45 Ryder 76
46 Suzanne 77
47 Ansley Ayers 54
48 Tylor Blake 44
49 Katie Lynn 70
50 Sianna 47
51 Alana Moore 69
52 Aren 68
53 Kyla 12
54 Faith 38
55 Sole' Rivera 40
56 Sapphire 89
57 Jill 29
58 Kendall 46
59 Kennedy Amir 90
60 Erica (New) 52
61 Genna 42
62 Heaven / Arielle 43
63 Stacy Davis 53
64 Nikki / Kenya 58
65 Aleece 74
66 Sasha Sole / Mya / Vienna Levy 49
67 Katy / Katie / Kathryn 67
68 Alicia 71
69 Ashley Sparks 59
70 Dayna 45
71 Alexandrea 72
72 Natalia 95
73 Alyson / Adrianna 80
74 Charlie 60
75 Kai 56
76 Angelica 61
77 TS Bella 48
78 Mallory 92
79 Aviva 35
80 Cate 78
81 Zoey 63
82 Heather 83
83 TS Katie / TS Amy 86
84 Alyssa 99
85 Alivia Leveauxxx 85
86 Haley Miller / Heidi Mueller 94
87 Katie 73
88 Ashtyn 64
89 Anastasia 65
90 Alexis 75
91 Richelle 91
92 Heidi 88
93 Casey 100
94 Payton 81
95 Aura Light / A.L / A. Mira L. 87
96 Khloe 96
97 Christy 98
98 Remi Martin 93
99 Athena 97
100 Petra Leon 84

2hot4u2 228 Reviews 1803 reads
posted
3 / 35

Can't we omit  TS from top 100?Dont they have their own board or something, if not....
Lets create alternative lifestyle board.
Congrats to all the LADIES!

ATfun 10 Reviews 4976 reads
posted
4 / 35

This is kinda of like college football's BCS, there will always be strong opinions for our favorites.  Unless of course we could figure out a provider playoff system, lol.

anonymousfun 6 Reviews 2333 reads
posted
5 / 35

But it does sound quite impressive. Thought Bayesian used to calculate conditional probability and its inverse.

You should consider writing a book on How to Bayesian to Calculate Average. Or "is this an improper application of perfectly good mathematical theory"?

Wiki link is below with examples. Let me know if I missed something on Stat classes. Always looking to learn.

somebodyelse_32 31 Reviews 1422 reads
posted
6 / 35

Posted By: anonymousfun
But it does sound quite impressive. Thought Bayesian used to calculate conditional probability and its inverse.

You should consider writing a book on How to Bayesian to Calculate Average. Or "is this an improper application of perfectly good mathematical theory"?

Wiki link is below with examples. Let me know if I missed something on Stat classes. Always looking to learn.
"I was told there would be no math." Chevy Chase's classic impersonation of President Gerald Ford in the 1976 debate

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 2129 reads
posted
7 / 35

Posted By: anonymousfun
But it does sound quite impressive. Thought Bayesian used to calculate conditional probability and its inverse.
This is Bayesian precisely because it *is* conditional. We are essentially asking "How much weight should we give these 5 reviews of Person X given that the average # of reviews is X and the average rating is X". It's not "Bayes Therorem" but it's Bayesian.

All I'm really doing it mixing in the avg # reviews and avg rating to the provider's current ranking. If they have 100 reviews, their numbers will dominate. Somebody with 5 reviews is going to be pulled closer to the mean.

For those keeping score at home:

((Avg rating*Avg # of reviews)+(Provider's Rating*Provider's # of reviews))/(Avg # of reviews + Provider's # of Reviews)

Phew.

Anyway, here are the Top 100 Provider's by PERFORMANCE only (from the Top 100 provided by TER).
Bayesian averaging of their performance scores.


Performance Rank Name
1 Summershowers
2 Haley Miller / Heidi Mueller
3 Madison O'Hare
4 Meena
5 Brooke
6 Khori / Shelby
7 Dakota Koxx
8 Anya
9 Brooke and Madison
10 Shelby
11 Evangeline LaCroix / Leina
12 Nikki / Kenya
13 Naomi Monroe
14 Sianna
15 Morgan Marie
16 Serena
17 Gemma / Lauren / Gemma De Rossi
18 Sammie Jo
19 Alana Moore
20 Alana / Natalie
21 Meagan
22 Kellie
23 Jennifer
24 Nina
25 Courtney
26 Aleece
27 Jordan
28 Brittany Cherry
29 Gianna
30 Tylor Blake
31 Cynamon
32 Paige
33 Aren
34 Ericka
35 Sara
36 Katie
37 Sydney
38 Ansley Ayers
39 Katie Lynn
40 Sapphire
41 Marie
42 London
43 Ryder
44 Suzanne
45 Ashley James and Dakota
46 Mary Jane
47 Nadine
48 Michaela
49 Ilana
50 Kennedy Amir
51 Sophie
52 Larissa
53 Celine / Gabriella
54 Boston (Current)
55 Alyson / Adrianna
56 Alyssa
57 Alivia Leveauxxx
58 Heather
59 Katy / Katie / Kathryn
60 Kendall
61 Jill
62 Genna
63 Natalia
64 Alexandrea
65 Erica (New)
66 Stacy Davis
67 Alicia
68 Cate
69 Mallory
70 Aviva
71 TS Katie / TS Amy
72 Richelle
73 Sole' Rivera
74 Ashley Sparks
75 Khloe
76 Christy
77 Faith
78 Alexis
79 Rylie / Katie Kayne / Cheyenne
80 Anastasia
81 Athena
82 Kyla
83 Zoey
84 Angelica
85 Ellie / Erin Marxxx
86 Kai
87 Ashtyn
88 Heaven / Arielle
89 Payton
90 Charlie
91 Sasha Sole / Mya / Vienna Levy
92 Ashley James
93 Casey
94 Katie
95 Aura Light / A.L / A. Mira L.
96 TS Bella
97 Petra Leon
98 Dayna
99 Remi Martin
100 Heidi





happycamper109 7 Reviews 3161 reads
posted
8 / 35

1. Widmerpool70
.
.
.
.100. Widmerpool70

Posted By: widmerpool70
This gives a more accurate ranking (assuming we are weighting looks and performance equally) than the current Top 100. It's similar to how IMBD might rank movies. It makes it fair between somebody with 200 reviews and somebody with 5.

Personally, I would not weight Looks/Performance equally but I figured it's a good start.

Top Three Movers: 1. Paige +59 spots, 2. Courtney +44 spots, 3. Sammie Jo +40 spots. Won't be invidious and mention people dropping. Everyone on the list is amazing. Just having fun with the numbers.

I will post a ranking just for performance and just for looks later...



New Rank Name Old Rank
1 Summershowers 1
2 Anya 3
3 Brooke and Madison 7
4 Meena 5
5 Evangeline LaCroix / Leina 2
6 Khori / Shelby 4
7 Jennifer 11
8 Morgan Marie 6
9 Madison O'Hare 20
10 Nina 8
11 Meagan 14
12 Brittany Cherry 9
13 Ellie / Erin Marxxx 18
14 Kellie 13
15 Dakota Koxx 21
16 Shelby 39
17 Cynamon 19
18 Gianna 23
19 Sara 22
20 Naomi Monroe 57
21 Jordan 24
22 Courtney 66
23 Paige 82
24 Gemma / Lauren / Gemma De Rossi 31
25 Alana / Natalie 26
26 Boston (Current) 15
27 Ashley James and Dakota 10
28 Ashley James 17
29 London 25
30 Ericka 50
31 Katie 32
32 Marie 27
33 Mary Jane 28
34 Nadine 30
35 Serena 62
36 Michaela 41
37 Ilana 16
38 Brooke 51
39 Sammie Jo 79
40 Rylie / Katie Kayne / Cheyenne 37
41 Sydney 55
42 Sophie 33
43 Celine / Gabriella 36
44 Larissa 34
45 Ryder 76
46 Suzanne 77
47 Ansley Ayers 54
48 Tylor Blake 44
49 Katie Lynn 70
50 Sianna 47
51 Alana Moore 69
52 Aren 68
53 Kyla 12
54 Faith 38
55 Sole' Rivera 40
56 Sapphire 89
57 Jill 29
58 Kendall 46
59 Kennedy Amir 90
60 Erica (New) 52
61 Genna 42
62 Heaven / Arielle 43
63 Stacy Davis 53
64 Nikki / Kenya 58
65 Aleece 74
66 Sasha Sole / Mya / Vienna Levy 49
67 Katy / Katie / Kathryn 67
68 Alicia 71
69 Ashley Sparks 59
70 Dayna 45
71 Alexandrea 72
72 Natalia 95
73 Alyson / Adrianna 80
74 Charlie 60
75 Kai 56
76 Angelica 61
77 TS Bella 48
78 Mallory 92
79 Aviva 35
80 Cate 78
81 Zoey 63
82 Heather 83
83 TS Katie / TS Amy 86
84 Alyssa 99
85 Alivia Leveauxxx 85
86 Haley Miller / Heidi Mueller 94
87 Katie 73
88 Ashtyn 64
89 Anastasia 65
90 Alexis 75
91 Richelle 91
92 Heidi 88
93 Casey 100
94 Payton 81
95 Aura Light / A.L / A. Mira L. 87
96 Khloe 96
97 Christy 98
98 Remi Martin 93
99 Athena 97
100 Petra Leon 84

bangerzandbizkitz 1954 reads
posted
9 / 35

He's childish and immature in that way.

You should also apply a stochastical regression to your analysis. Doing so will give greater weight to the ratings that are more recent than those that were given further in the past.

As it stands now, you're giving equal weight to all of a provider's reviews, whether they were given yesterday or 5 years ago.

And as we all know, people can change over time.

bangerzandbizkitz 3303 reads
posted
10 / 35
bangerzandbizkitz 2063 reads
posted
11 / 35

also eliminate:

1. grades and class rankings in school
2. music Billboard's Top rankings
3. The PGA Fedex Cup
4. Restaurant guides like Michelin and Zagat's
5. US News and Report's Top University Rankings

There's no denying there's pressure when ranking and competition are concerned. Just do your best and let the chips fall where they may.

bballs 40 Reviews 1926 reads
posted
12 / 35
tylor4you See my TER Reviews 3150 reads
posted
13 / 35

I have mixed feelings about the top 100 List. While I have always appreciated that the review system is a great asset and tool for both hobbiest and providers both, it also creates alot of pressure for providers as well. I myself strive not to be a robot on any date, with that the reality for me(just speaking for myself here) is that I cannot be a 10 every day....possibly I am having an off day, possibly I am not as attracted to a particular gentlemen.Nonetheless, I always try to be professional ,upbeat and kind. We have seen on this particular board woman nearly break down after receiving their first bad review.... I think its a shame we as providers put so much burden on ourselves. I will say that some days I have noticed that I have a new review that I was not expecting and I find my heart jumping out of my chest as I click on to view "the numbers".... I only wish I did not care so much, but the reality is that I do.

I looked at the variety of list provided on this particular thread. I think alot of things come into play here. I know some great providers that were not included on the list. I wonder how that might make them feel. I know for myself I look at my reviews and my most recent two pages are mostly 9's and 10's in performance however on my last page of reviews from 2006 when I first entered the hobby I scored lower which has affected my overrall average. It took me time to find my "niche"as a provider. The provider I was in 2006 is not the provider I am today.... I had to find what worked for me,how many clients to see a week, advertising to reach the clients that I enjoyed ect.

Maybe I am rambling a bit and maybe I am a bit off subject, but I wanted to share my feelings.

-- Modified on 8/18/2010 12:45:34 PM

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 3237 reads
posted
14 / 35

Shilling for who???

If a thread makes u hyperventilate you should probably just move on.

Amazing the general antagonism on this board.

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 2479 reads
posted
15 / 35
GemmaDeRossi See my TER Reviews 1594 reads
posted
16 / 35

I completely agree.  While reviews are essential in finding quality companions w/o being disappointed, it puts much pressure on us as providers.  I think we as women/providers compare ourselves to other women when we all are wonderful and unique in our own way.  I know that every session isn't going to be perfect.  But we are not robots.  As long as the clients who see me, enjoy my company, it doesn't matter if I am ranked #1 or #1000.  I try very hard to make sure that every session I have is wonderful.

You are right though, we all have our "off" days.  I'd rather be human than be an emotionless robot.  When I see I have a new review, my heart starts pounding as well because I understand that gentlemen come to see me most of the time based on my reviews.  There is a lot of pressure to keep that up with every client even if you and the client don't click.  Its bound to happen at some point.

For the record, I think all these girls should be at #1.  We are all special, beautiful, caring and make sure that clients enjoy their time with us.  No one girl is better than any other.  It is only in the eyes of whoever is reviewing a girl to put his one opinion in and thats good but that shouldn't make or break any of us because at some point we all get a bad or bogus review and it sucks.

So, on my list...Tylor we are all #1!

XOXO

Gemma

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 1979 reads
posted
18 / 35

I agree. I ultimately base a decision on instinct or review details.

Probably everybody in this list is great. But numbers do help the cream rise to the top.

No different than Zagats. My fave restaurants are not their highest rated ones.

And, again, I didn't create the original list. Just played with the numbers. Women and meaningless stats...

bballs 40 Reviews 2382 reads
posted
19 / 35
widmerpool70 2 Reviews 2278 reads
posted
20 / 35

I am a a total asshole loser for posting this but here's the Top 5 Looks-only using weighted averages:

1. Jennifer
2. Ellie / Erin Marxxx
3. Ashley James
4. Summershowers
5. Khori / Shelby

Again, this is based on the TER Top 100 ATL so everyone is great to even be on this list

No, I don't think this is definitive. Yes, everyone has different tastes. Still, Jennifer is UNEQUIVOCALLY the best looking woman in Atlanta.

"It's science" - Ron Burgundy

Yes, I have the 5 min of time on my hands to run shit through Excel. Fantasy Football is much more tedious except there's no women...

anonymousfun 6 Reviews 2368 reads
posted
21 / 35

There is no such thing Bayesian Averaging. Bayes is used as a short form for Bayesian. We got those two things out of the way.

In more technical terms, the theorem expresses the posterior probability (i.e. after evidence E is observed) of a hypothesis H in terms of the prior probabilities of H and E, and the probability of E given H. It implies that evidence has a stronger confirming effect if it was more unlikely before being observed. Bayes theorem is valid in all common interpretations of probability, and is applicable in science and engineering.  However, there is disagreement between frequentist, Bayesian, subjective and objective statisticians with regard to the proper implementation and extent of Bayes' theorem.

Bayesian inference uses Bayes' formula for conditional probability:

There is no such thing Bayesian Averaging. Bayes is used as a short form for Bayesian. We got those two things out of the way.

In more technical terms, the theorem expresses the posterior probability (i.e. after evidence E is observed) of a hypothesis H in terms of the prior probabilities of H and E, and the probability of E given H. It implies that evidence has a stronger confirming effect if it was more unlikely before being observed. Bayes theorem is valid in all common interpretations of probability, and is applicable in science and engineering.  However, there is disagreement between frequentist, Bayesian, subjective and objective statisticians with regard to the proper implementation and extent of Bayes' theorem.

Bayesian inference uses Bayes' formula for conditional probability:

P(H\D) = P(D\H) P(H) /P (D)

where
H is a hypothesis, and D is the data.
P(H) is the prior probability of H: the probability that H is correct before the data D was seen.
P(D | H) is the conditional probability of seeing the data D given that the hypothesis H is true. P(D | H) is called the likelihood.
P(D) is the marginal probability of D.
P(H | D) is the posterior probability: the probability that the hypothesis is true, given the data and the previous state of belief about the hypothesis.
P(D) is the prior probability of witnessing the data D under all possible hypotheses
where
H is a hypothesis, and D is the data.
P(H) is the prior probability of H: the probability that H is correct before the data D was seen.
P(D | H) is the conditional probability of seeing the data D given that the hypothesis H is true. P(D | H) is called the likelihood.
P(D) is the marginal probability of D.
P(H | D) is the posterior probability: the probability that the hypothesis is true, given the data and the previous state of belief about the hypothesis.
P(D) is the prior probability of witnessing the data D under all possible hypotheses

Bayesian is never used in Population Statistics to calculate Arithmetic "mean, mode and median". Bayes is primarily used science and engineering especially in information theory, Mante Carlo Simaulation, Bayesian Filters, Data Analysis, Estimation and classifier, etc.

Moreover Bayesian networks for calculating bayesian probability is a very complicated process which requires building Bayesian Networks and algorithms. One primary use of Bayesian Classifier and information filtering today is spam filters.

Using Bayes for calculating simple arithmetic mean gives incorrect results from which nothing can be inferred and blows bayesian inference.

All I am saying is Bayes is not the correct statistical method to calculate averages and predicting provider performance. In this case, "mode" would more accurate prediction than mean and median. Of course median can be used with some caveats for predicting something else such, after how many trysts a providers performance decrease.

Not busting your balls but just sharing info.

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 1840 reads
posted
22 / 35

I can't help that there is a model called Bayesian Averaging.

Is it what they use for vote weighting. Otherwise the top restaurant in Zagats could could be one with a single review.

I know Bayes theorem. It's not that but it's certainly based on conditionals. It's absolutely Bayesian since the first step is to look at what we already know.

I'm sure the Reverend Bayes would love seeing this applied to escorts.

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 2301 reads
posted
23 / 35

I don't have access to ratings outside of the top 100. And that changes daily.

I can PM you your weighted rank. I sure hope this is turning you on for all the grief I've taken....

ThisIsCaylee See my TER Reviews 3263 reads
posted
24 / 35

Because the numbers used for the ratings system are fluid anyway. A guy gives a 9 for looks and TER changes it to 8, and so on. They should change the whole ratings system to:

On a scale from 1-5 with 1 being least likely to repeat and 5 being most likely to repeat.

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 3415 reads
posted
25 / 35

Also, sometimes a reviewer gives numbers completely out of line with his review.

I can't imagine anybody who uses the Top 100 as the basis for a search. Most people have something in mind and are not nitpicking 8 v 9.

ahobbiest 1535 reads
posted
26 / 35

Can you look at rankings of agency vs. independent and weight the recent scores more?  

Also, can you do a value ranking - not sure how to do it (need a GT grad to help out) but looking at relationship between $$ and performance...

anonymousfun 6 Reviews 1478 reads
posted
27 / 35

How long did it take?

Look at the example. Bayes can reduce a single anomalous value but it gives you poor results when there a multiple values.

So, unless you know all the anomalous scores, which is impossible in this case, the rankings are anomalous at best.

Not trying to argue with you but tired of people using inappropriate mathematical formulas to create absurd validation. Something like the risk models used before the financial crisis.

If your are interested in this kind of subjects, do read "Black Swan". Very interesting book.



john1942 52 Reviews 1826 reads
posted
28 / 35

you've listed some mighty fine ladies there.  You may have missed a couple of the UTR ladies but that list is pretty good.

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 1208 reads
posted
29 / 35

Dude, I'm using a well-known formula to weight votes. IMDB is basically the same thing.

The idea that it is the wrong formula is just not true. I'm not using Bayes Theorem. Repeat: I'm not using Bayes Theorem.

It's similar to adding 30 median scores (e.g. 8.3) to every provider. Then a Provider with few reviews is going to be pulled pretty close to that number. A provider with 300 reviews is not going to be as affected as much by adding this 30 votes. IMDB does exactly the same thing so a movie with 2 reviews is not rated the greatest movie of all time.

I don't doubt somebody could create an even more sophisticated system. But I don't see how this is wrong in any way. It's better than the TER Top 100. For example, a Provider just jumped into the TER Top 20 on her 5th review. That's what I'm trying to address.

Black Swan would be a good provider name. Yes, I read the book. I like it though he tends to ramble.

Posted By: anonymousfun
How long did it take?

Look at the example. Bayes can reduce a single anomalous value but it gives you poor results when there a multiple values.

So, unless you know all the anomalous scores, which is impossible in this case, the rankings are anomalous at best.

Not trying to argue with you but tired of people using inappropriate mathematical formulas to create absurd validation. Something like the risk models used before the financial crisis.

If your are interested in this kind of subjects, do read "Black Swan". Very interesting book.



widmerpool70 2 Reviews 1476 reads
posted
30 / 35

I think I remember reading a study which used TER to correlate $$$ to performance.

I don't think it was that interesting. The high $$$ people rated highest.

Atl_Guy 34 Reviews 1620 reads
posted
32 / 35

sounds logical, but there are some great independent films that very few have seen

widmerpool70 2 Reviews 938 reads
posted
33 / 35

Bayes Theorem specifically deals with determining the probability of an event that's already occurred given subsequent related events.

Bayesian inference is broadly concerned with continually updating probabilities based on new data. In my crude formula, the rating of Provider x would continually be updated not just by her ratings but by those of all other providers. So it's Bayesian in the sense that it's using new info (rating of provider Z) to get at something which already exists (ie how good provider x is).

It would actually be more useful across the whole db, not just top 100.

stevewatl57 7 Reviews 1540 reads
posted
34 / 35
anonymousfun 6 Reviews 1477 reads
posted
35 / 35

Very familiar inference and Bayesian Networks. You are describing one application. Another well known application is posterior probability, i.e., predicting future behavior based past observations which is what is used in spam filtering and virus detection.

It is also used in information warfare and for target acquisition. Interesting and very complicated algorithms.

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