When you experienced unusally warm weather in your part of the country, it was strong evidence of global warming. And that was within the last week or so.
Alaska has had record cold. If excessive warming proves global warming, does excessive cold disprove it? (This is not even mentioning the record cold spells experienced all around the world in the last few years.)
Personally, I think scientist are right and we are heading for a new Ice Age. I saw the movie.
Phil, you basing predictions from a cartoon ?!
Kidding------
Next you are going to tell me that Wizard of Oz wasn't based on a real story.
I saw the film, so it had to be real.
Kidding------
First, let me just state that I'm not an expert on this topic. Secondly, let's put some bad framing to rest. From day 1 it ought to have been called global climate change instead of global warming, so as to not confuse the layman.
Now onto some of the science as I understand it. Climate is an incredibly complex thing. And the more I learn about it, the luckiler I realize we are. It's not just what our atmosphere is made of, it that we're an ideal distance from the sun. Consider that Venus' atmosphere is so dense with CO2 that it's never gets below 400 degrees there. Mars has a very thin atmosphere and no magnetisphere to prevent it from being stripped by solar winds. Mars gets as cold as -225 degrees.
It's not just the distance from the sun that matters. Without our moon (which is massive for the size of our planet), then our poles wouldn't remain at a steady axial tilt of 23.5 degrees. If we didn't have our moon tomorrow, the axial tilt would go haywire, and large parts of the earth would remain in total darkness, while other parts would remain in never ending daylight.
It is a little unsettling to think that only 20 miles of atmosphere protects us from the vacuum of space. But it takes more than just the right distance from the sun, an dense atmosphere, and a massive moon to give you stable hospitable climate. It takes massive ocean currents and wind currents that all function to redistribute heat from one part of the planet to another.
Look at a map of the world at 60 degrees north longitude. You'll notice something interesting. The entire world at this longitude is nearly uninhabited because it's so fucking cold. There's two major exceptions. Europe and Iceland.
Iceland remains fairly warm because of volcanic activity. Europe remains warm because of the Gulf Stream ocean current. This current pulls warm water off the the horn of Africa, and it makes Europe warmer than it would otherwise be. Without it, London might look like Anchorage. This same ocean current makes NYC and Boston hospitable. Without it, living in Boston would be like living in Pierre South Dakota.
During the end of the last major ice age most of the northern part of the United States was under a massive sheet of ice. The melting of this ice created the Great Lakes, and when that happened a massive deposit of fresh water went into the Hudson, as it interrupted the Gulf Stream current. And since it ceased to cycle, Europe went back into an ice age. I guess it's a good thing there isn't another massive sheet of ice near by that is melting. Opps. I guess I forgot Greenland.
Climate is an incredibly complex thing. It can lead to massive droughts, and we've seen Lake Chad completely dry up already. Warmer oceans will increase in volume even without ice melt. Frozen CO2 at the bottom of the ocean could melt and be released into the air, causing a positive cycle loop. Warmer temperatures would cause greater moisture in the air, giving us record rainfall, snowfall, typhoons and hurricanes.
The fact that excessive CO2 remains locked away in oil beneath the ground is a life saver. It's theorized that one of the reasons why dinosaurs were so big was because back then the atmosphere was far richer with oxygen. Initially, this planet didn't have much free oxygen, and as a result the ocean was green and the sky was red. For this reason, life originated in the oceans, plant-like lifeforms similiar to algae, releasing oxygen as a waste product for billions of years. This eventually made life on land possible, and with large animals there were also large plants. Massive trees living in massive swamps, their foilage packing down year after year creating all the world's fossil fuels today. As that extra carbon got locked away underground, the climate changed, and while the average size for an animal back then was the size of a triceratops, today it's the size of a dog.
Years ago I saw some climate change models predicting that the Southwest U.S. will become more dry, while the north mid atlantic would see increased rainfall. And just this year, Vermont had flooding that took out bridges while Texas saw record droughts and fires.
The bottom line here is we're all playing Russian Roulette so guys like GaG can make a buck. But the real bitch of it is that not all the money in the world can save someone from in uninhabitable planet.
That has to be the longest answer ever for a short question. I think you should change your moniker to Dncwillie. I can't tap as fast.
But you ignored the question. you said it was warm where you were and based on that how could anyone doubt global warming. I asked if it is cold somewhere else, why is your warm proof and their cold not proof.
Now you may say it is complex, but don't cite your warm season as proof.
It is now called climate change, but the thing that the believers are ultimately saying is "WARMNING."
Al Gore said, "The earth has a fever." "The earth is burning up."
Yes, you are right that climate is an incredibly complex thing. In order to believe Global warming, you have to believe that the computer models upon which it is based managed to incorporate every thing that influences climate and got all of those things in the right proportion.
If they did not get them right, then the conclusion is wrong. A computer that estimates it will take 500 gallons of gas to get from NY to LA is pure bull shit if it does not take into account elevation through mountains, detours, weight of the passengers in the car, wind velocity, whether they will use the aid conditioner, whether the tires are properly inflated, and every other fact that affects milage.
Likewise, if you are predicting how the climate will change, your prediction is only as good as you are close to accounting for every variable in the right proportion.
The fact that someone may have said the southwest will be warm and the northeast wet does not prove the validity of the rest of the theory just because one year or two years were right.
Again, unless they got every factor down correctly GIGO
Finally, it isn't so GAG can make a buck. It is so that I can drive to Pomona at a decent price. So I can fly to Barcelona next year at a good fare. So that you can have a flat-screen, plasma TV.
Now onto some of the science as I understand it. Climate is an incredibly complex thing. And the more I learn about it, the luckiler I realize we are. It's not just what our atmosphere is made of, it that we're an ideal distance from the sun. Consider that Venus' atmosphere is so dense with CO2 that it's never gets below 400 degrees there. Mars has a very thin atmosphere and no magnetisphere to prevent it from being stripped by solar winds. Mars gets as cold as -225 degrees.
It's not just the distance from the sun that matters. Without our moon (which is massive for the size of our planet), then our poles wouldn't remain at a steady axial tilt of 23.5 degrees. If we didn't have our moon tomorrow, the axial tilt would go haywire, and large parts of the earth would remain in total darkness, while other parts would remain in never ending daylight.
It is a little unsettling to think that only 20 miles of atmosphere protects us from the vacuum of space. But it takes more than just the right distance from the sun, an dense atmosphere, and a massive moon to give you stable hospitable climate. It takes massive ocean currents and wind currents that all function to redistribute heat from one part of the planet to another.
Look at a map of the world at 60 degrees north longitude. You'll notice something interesting. The entire world at this longitude is nearly uninhabited because it's so fucking cold. There's two major exceptions. Europe and Iceland.
Iceland remains fairly warm because of volcanic activity. Europe remains warm because of the Gulf Stream ocean current. This current pulls warm water off the the horn of Africa, and it makes Europe warmer than it would otherwise be. Without it, London might look like Anchorage. This same ocean current makes NYC and Boston hospitable. Without it, living in Boston would be like living in Pierre South Dakota.
During the end of the last major ice age most of the northern part of the United States was under a massive sheet of ice. The melting of this ice created the Great Lakes, and when that happened a massive deposit of fresh water went into the Hudson, as it interrupted the Gulf Stream current. And since it ceased to cycle, Europe went back into an ice age. I guess it's a good thing there isn't another massive sheet of ice near by that is melting. Opps. I guess I forgot Greenland.
Climate is an incredibly complex thing. It can lead to massive droughts, and we've seen Lake Chad completely dry up already. Warmer oceans will increase in volume even without ice melt. Frozen CO2 at the bottom of the ocean could melt and be released into the air, causing a positive cycle loop. Warmer temperatures would cause greater moisture in the air, giving us record rainfall, snowfall, typhoons and hurricanes.
The fact that excessive CO2 remains locked away in oil beneath the ground is a life saver. It's theorized that one of the reasons why dinosaurs were so big was because back then the atmosphere was far richer with oxygen. Initially, this planet didn't have much free oxygen, and as a result the ocean was green and the sky was red. For this reason, life originated in the oceans, plant-like lifeforms similiar to algae, releasing oxygen as a waste product for billions of years. This eventually made life on land possible, and with large animals there were also large plants. Massive trees living in massive swamps, their foilage packing down year after year creating all the world's fossil fuels today. As that extra carbon got locked away underground, the climate changed, and while the average size for an animal back then was the size of a triceratops, today it's the size of a dog.
Years ago I saw some climate change models predicting that the Southwest U.S. will become more dry, while the north mid atlantic would see increased rainfall. And just this year, Vermont had flooding that took out bridges while Texas saw record droughts and fires.
The bottom line here is we're all playing Russian Roulette so guys like GaG can make a buck. But the real bitch of it is that not all the money in the world can save someone from in uninhabitable planet.
And I imagine it's those evil wheat farmers that have America "hooked" on bread. lmao
Since when are the people that are doing there best to fill a demand branded the evildoers? Yeah, I know, rhetorical question. lol
but I do appriciate the opportunity to make a buck, and actually it's several bucks. I will think about Willy when I buy my tropical island with all of my illgotten wealth. yeah right, I doubt the name Willy fucking Wonka will ever enter my mind when I cash in my chips.
Big Oil makes my life better by giving me mobility. I can take a trip to Europe or the Middle East every year. I can drive my car and cool my office.
Without doing the research, I would estimate that a gallon of gas costs close to what a bottle of Perrier costs.
As for Big Pharma, about 10 years ago I had an illness that could have had dire consequences. The doctor recommended a 6 month course of treatment. I spoke to someone who was just finishing, and he said it had been rough. My doctor explained I would be on the newest version that was just out, and would have less of an impact. I did it and had no serious side effects.
As I was finishing the treatmentsix months later, there was an article in the LA. Times that they were about to release an even newer product that would be more effective, but less expensive, since many of the development costs had been incorporated from the older versions
My best friend is a cancer survivior and has a similar story.
If I ever see the president of a Big Pharma Company, I will kiss his ass and say, "Thanks."
"That has to be the longest answer ever for a short question."
I thought a long answer was merited, since you don't seem to be grasping the science.
The fact that it is 60 degrees in DC in January is certainly evidence of climate change. It wouldn't be unusual for Atlanta or Tampa, I'm sure, but it certainly is for DC. It's also unusual for the entire state of Texas to be in a draught, and for Vermont to flood. It's ususual for record freezing temperatures elsewhere.
As for the computer models, such models are used to predict the weather. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but they're rarely wildly off the mark. If the weatherman says there's going to be 6 inches of snow and you only get 5, or get as much as 8, it doesn't mean it didn't snow.
There are dozens of examines I could give that show that the climate is changing. One amusing, yet informative blog on the subject can be found here.
http://climatecrocks.com/
Lastly, yes, this is so people like GaG can make a buck. It certainly is possible to fly to Barcelona without fossil fuels. It's possible to drive to Pomona without fossil fuels at a decent price. Of course, you and I have no ability to make decisions about production of energy resources. GaG, on the other hand, does.
I think I am humorous.
First, it isn't that rare for Vermont to be wet in the winter. It may be a little more, but it isn't unheard of. Likewise, if you read the first volume of the Caro biography of LBJ he talks of the hill country, droughts in TX are not that shocking.
Weather people make predictions and sometimes they are right. Sometimes they are wrong. Sometimes they just say "50% chance of rain," so they can't be wrong.
However, it is one thing to predict snow when known types of clouds are coming in from 500 miles away and you can measure the cold front from Canada. Likewise, if there ain't a cloud for 1,000 miles, it isn't to hard to predict, "Sunny and warm."
That is a million miles away from predicting a 2 degrees drop or rise in temperature in the next 100 years where there a 1,000,000 factors, half of which are not known.
Take the fact that the weather man is two inches off on the amount of snow. Factor in how many more factors will impact the climate in 20 years, and that 2 inches of snow that is wrong becomes a precition of eight feet of snow and getting a balmy 80 degrees.
Finally, you said the "fact that it is 60 degrees in DC in January is certainly evidence of climate change." I know that is what you said. But that isnot the question. I asked if that is evidence of global warmning, why isn't extreme cold evidence of global cooling? You just repeated your half.
After all, I remember when all the smart guy scientists were predicting the Ice Age.
-- Modified on 1/10/2012 2:05:03 PM
"The fact that it is 60 degrees in DC in January is certainly evidence of climate change"
You are going to cite the temperature for one day or one week or a month for one specific year as climatic evidence? Well, let's use your tactic to look further. Here's a chart that includes the record high temperatures for D.C. in January.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/vacationplanner/climatology/daily/USDC0001?climoMonth=1&from=vac_monavg
First notice that 60 deg. isn't even all that high but now let's count the number of record high days per decade with the average temperature for those days in parenthesis.
2000s = 5 (72)
1990s = 3 (71)
1980s = 0
1970s = 4 (75)
1960s = 0
1950s = 8 (73)
1940s = 2 (74)
1930s = 4 (76)
1920s = 1 (76)
1910s = 1 (71)
1900s = 1 (76)
1890s = 1 (76)
1880s = 0
1870s = 1 (71)
I'm not claiming this is valid climatic science. I'm just extrapolating your own logic to show you there were other decades with stronger warm trends (i.e. more record days and higher averages)
They look to anything that validates the theory as proof. Anything that doesn't can be explained.
It is a wonderful world where nothing can disprove the theory.
The whole frigging earth could be caked in a sheet of ice and Willy would tell you it is proof because the core drew the heat away and is heating up!!!
Want to know what causes global warming, here is your answer...
-- Modified on 1/10/2012 10:54:33 AM
