Polling is current for May 21st. This map omits Kennedy. Today we have two tan states, Iowa and New Hampshire, as the current polling has Trump and Biden tied in those two states. 
Very informative!
Just a few weeks ago he had Kennedy leading in multiple states. Please dont take Willy serious. I busted him last time for BSing about his bogus map. You, however, should know better.
I mentioned I would be posting these maps once a week until the election. Some maps will include Kennedy and some will omit Kennedy. This one omits Kennedy due to the fact that Trump and Biden are tied in two states and I wanted to show that. I would further note that some polling, John Zogby mostly, has several polls in several states of Biden vs Kennedy and Kennedy vs Trump, but no polling on Biden Vs Trump. In some states like Utah and a couple in New England, this puts Kennedy in the lead. I will sometimes post maps with and without Kennedy as it is not yet clear which states he will get on the ballot. I would also note that Maine and Nebraska splits their electoral votes, which I don’t have specific data on, so that is another limitation to these maps.
Remember: there is always limitations to polling. You use the data you have, not the data you wished you had. All the polling used here is the most recent polling data posted on 538.
I "kept up" when I called you out on your BS map just a few weeks ago as you were trying to pull a fast one. You had KENNEDY LEADING in EIGHT states then. EIGHT. But now he leads in...NONE? See the problem I am getting at Willy?
I just explained this in my previous post. How are you not understanding? I am not conducting any of these polls. I'm just copying and pasting the most recent poll found on 538. For instance, this is the most recent polling for Iowa. Poll conducted by John Zogby. 405 likely voters. Kennedy v Trump, Kennedy wins 45% to 39%. Kennedy v Biden, Kennedy wins, 50% to 39%.
Now, there is no polling of Trump v Biden here. There is no polling of a 3 way race here. If we omit Kennedy then Biden and Trump are tied. If we don't omit Kennedy, Kennedy wins the state. Will that happen on Election Day? I have no idea, I don't know if Kennedy will be on the ballot or not. THEREFORE, some of these maps will include Kennedy and some will exclude him. I will note when that's the case.
If you fail to follow this very simple concept, then I will have to conduct a TER poll to put you in the running for the board's dumbest poster. 
He's whistling past the graveyard.
For you to have a completely different map just weeks later, makes your mission fools gold. I exposed your silliness, and at least you had the sense to run away from "Kennedy" states.
NO credible organization thinks Iowa will be won by anyone other than Trump. If they did, that would be MAJOR news.
To place Wi, Pa, or Mi in ANYONES column is fantasy as any honest broker would conclude that those states are essentially tied. Every expert in this field has those 3 states, at least, in the toss up column.
You using Zogby, a completely discredited polling group (see link below) only adds to your silliness. Lester and CKS bowing at your greatness is hysterical to watch though. Lester never understood about the causes of inflation so I wouldn't expect him to push back on you but CKS being utterly duped was a bit disappointing.
-- Modified on 5/22/2024 9:57:51 AM
One thing the Zogby Poll showed us is that it’s pretty clear that if Biden dropped out, Kennedy would beat Trump.
I also object to your characterization of my previous commentary in this thread.
And you can object if you wish but those are my thoughts. You gobbled down Willy's nonsense without lifting a finger. His post wasn't "very informative", it was "very deceptive."
If you want to put stock into anything he has to say, be my guest, but I can push back on his nonsense and your adoration of same.
Your tone seems to have become more testy lately.
Zogby or not, I believe Kennedy would beat Trump in a head to head race. RFK Jr has called out Biden as the true “spoiler” in this contest. Trump vs Biden in a head to head? Your only realistic answers at this point would be “Trump” or “too close to call”.
I'm not sure RFK would beat Trump head to head. Reason is that just like there are never-Trumpers in the GOP and would rather have Marx win the election, there are, for some reason, never-RFKs who'd rather have Franco win. It's not that either the Marx or Franco voters want them, they are looking forward to the next election when they can finally rule.
1. The largest poll of this election cycle.
2. A sample of greater than 23K (average national polls cited have a sample size of +/- 2K.
3. A margin of error of less than 1%.
Polls are not election results. Relax. Some polls will obviously be done poorly. Part of the point of this exercise is to highlight that some polls are terrible. I’m not in the position to judge one pollster over another. I will highlight all the latest polls and the latest polls only at the time the maps are drawn. The only judgment on the quality of the poll is based upon the number of people polled. I have high confidence in a poll of 1000 people. 500 is a minimum to have any confidence at all. When it’s less than 500, I try to find more than 1 poll finding the same outcome. This is why Washington was in the Trump column. One poll had him up by 1% there, another had him up by 5%. I had low confidence in both polls, but you use the data you have, not the data you wished you had.
I just saw a poll out of Idaho that has Biden ahead by 20 points in the state. But it was only of 168 likely voters, the lowest number I’ve seen yet doing this exercise. Civiqs conducted the poll.
http://elections2024.thehill.com/idaho/
I have long said the media has become awful and untrustworthy. But there is a difference between the media and the polling industry. The media seems to think a toss up state depends on if it was a toss up state in the last election. This seems to me to be a very poor definition. I’m proposing a different definition of polls consistently finding any particular candidate with a lead of less than 5%. That, seems to me to be a better definition of a toss up state. I could be right, I could be wrong. Let’s find out if I am come Election Day. The point of all this is to learn more about polling. Let’s make it a fun learning experience instead of things to freak out over for no reason.
Like I said, some maps will include Kennedy and some will not. I will soon be narrowing this down more and post a map of which states Kennedy is on the ballot. As this will change as the election draws closer I will try to keep up on these updates.
Relax. Let’s have fun with this. The point is to have a sense of what the polls find and what the election results turn out to be. It will be a lesson in how reliable polls are. That’s the purpose of all this. It is why even bad polls will be included when the maps are drawn.