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I've said this before: I put ZERO stock in the polls. ALL of them.
inicky46 61 Reviews 84 reads
posted

And by that I mean I don't care if they favor Harris or Trump. Because the methodologies are flawed when measuring who is likely to vote and for which candidate they'll vote. The methodologies can't keep up with new voting patterns, especially those of younger voters.
So my guess is the outcome won't remotely resemble the picture the polls are giving us.
This is why I find Fester so ludicrous in his obsession with polls.

RespectfulRobert333 reads

Showing just how close this race is. This is insane:
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NY Times:
NC Trump +2, GA Trump +2
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Fox News
NC Harris +2, GA Harris +2

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inicky4685 reads

And by that I mean I don't care if they favor Harris or Trump. Because the methodologies are flawed when measuring who is likely to vote and for which candidate they'll vote. The methodologies can't keep up with new voting patterns, especially those of younger voters.
So my guess is the outcome won't remotely resemble the picture the polls are giving us.
This is why I find Fester so ludicrous in his obsession with polls.

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cks17554 reads

I think that’s a bit extreme. There’s enough stock in these polls (all of them) to tell us 1) this is going to be an extremely close election, and 2) Kamala is running behind where polling was for Biden 4 years ago today.

It really could come all down to Pennsylvania.

-- Modified on 9/28/2024 4:38:47 AM

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RespectfulRobert53 reads

But how is that relevant today? Today, she is running about 4-5 points ahead of Joe in comparison to where Joe stood against Trump this past June. 2020 was another lifetime ago in politics. So much has changed. I just don't see the relevance. It a totally different dynamic and scenario now.  
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All that said, I would rather be in her position than his but it is by the slimmest of margins and could turn in an instant.

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willywonka4u57 reads

Part of the reason why I started doing the maps was to show just how unreliable the polls are. At least that the public sees. We’re living in a new paradigm where the public is given false information from the MSM while insiders and elites get accurate info. So you have to feel things out. Which, I know isn’t something that’s not exactly tangible, but that’s the price we pay for a shit media. My sense of things is that Trump is solidly in the lead. I may be wrong, but I don’t think I am. I think Trump wins with 312-330 EV.

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RespectfulRobert56 reads

You had RFK Jr leading in some of the states at one point even though he only had 17-18% of the national vote. So maybe it wasnt "the polls" as much as your crazed interpretation of them? Give it some thought. Moving on...
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For Trump just to get to 312, he would have to win EVERY SINGLE toss up state. I don't think anyone working for Trump and getting paid by him believes that.

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willywonka4u47 reads

When I clearly said I was just looking at 538, and they had polls of RFK v Biden and RFK v Trump but didn’t post any three way races. If RFK was ahead in both I had RFK winning, for lack of 3 way race data. Three way race data existed, but 538 didn’t publish it. The three way race polling was published by The Hill which I found out after the fact. Again, you kept pretending that this was my prediction of the results, rather than me just stating categorically what 538 polling was saying.  

 
Yes, not only do I think Trump is going to win with at least 312 EV, but he’s going to flip a few blue states. Is Trump going to win Minnesota and Colorado? Probably not. But I could see New Mexico. Virginia. Maine. New Jersey. New Hampshire.

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lester_prairie55 reads

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Hpygolky55 reads

What he thinks🤔🤔🤔
Harris up, Trump up.,,who really knows  
But I can say the one poll I’m iffy on is Rasmussen. Especially now

Related Link: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/michael-cohen-poll-rigging/index.html

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lester_prairie53 reads

AtlasIntel came out with their swing state polls.  Most surprising is Trump +3.4 in Michigan, and Harris +2.4 in North Carolina.  They give Trump +2.9 in Pennsylvania, and Trump slightly ahead in WI, AZ and GA.  Trump behind in NV.
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They attribute the NC issue for Trump to the governor candidate scandal.  

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lester_prairie52 reads

Polymarket which has Harris+2.5 yesterday has changed to Harris+1.2 since AtlasIntel released these polls.

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lester_prairie52 reads

There's new talk about Trump winning the popular vote but losing the electoral vote, which would be a twist from past voting history.  However to explain it would require shifts in certain demographics.  This shift in Latino voting might be one potential factor of such a scenario. Trump could pick up more votes in already red states where there are more Latinos and not in swing states that have fewer Latinos.
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Anyhow it is interesting that there has been a major shift since 2016 in Latino perception of Trump.

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lester_prairie61 reads

Not much confidence in this since Quinnipiac is a terrible pollster.

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lester_prairie57 reads

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lester_prairie57 reads

Emerson NC Trump +1

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lester_prairie54 reads

September 25-29 | 1,001 LV

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lester_prairie48 reads

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lester_prairie50 reads

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lester_prairie48 reads

AZ: Harris +2
GA: Trump +2
MI: Harris +3
NV: Harris +1
NC: Tied
PA: Harris +1
WI: Harris +2

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inicky4650 reads

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lester_prairie53 reads

I have no idea.  I don't trust state polling in general.

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lester_prairie55 reads

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coeur-de-lion53 reads

by this much now in MIchigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania won't be far behind.  This is shaping up to not be that close after all.

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inicky4647 reads

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lester_prairie54 reads

It's a seesaw but Trump flip to +0.1 advantage in the PolyMarket.  Not sure how long that will last.  It's been toying with a flip since the VP debate.  Before the debate it was Harris +1.4.   It was Harris +4 or so before the AtlasIntel state poll results and then declined quickly to about the Harris +2.5 range.  It has seesawed between Harris +2 and +1.5 since then and then started pulling close to the flip last night after the VP debate.  This could all change by the time I finish typing this.  These are tiny moves but right on the cusp of 50/50.  

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