On the Dem side, with all Hills troubles, I would lower her from the 90-95% range of being the Dem nominee only a few months ago, to about 55-60% now.  

My hunch is that number will fall to under 50 in a month.

If Biden, Gore or Warren jump in, I think that number would fall another 10% or so, maybe more.

I think some are writing her off too fast, after all she is a Clinton and they have been known to sidestep a few land mines at times.

On the Rep side, I still think it is Bush first, Rubio second and Kasich coming up fast in third. My guess is Kasich will surpass Rubio at some point over the next month or so but I cant say he is there now.

Walker has faded a bit, so I would put him as a weak #4, and Fiorina and Carson have risen but not to the point where either are legitimate threats yet.

These aren't predictions of what will happen a year from now, just an assessment of where we are today and maybe a month out.

Thoughts

but I have to agree he is falling flat as of late, and his poll numbers reflect that, but his huge warchest and connections are going to keep him going until the end and he is still the guy to beat on the GOP side.

I have to mainly agree with Jack's assessment, but I don't really give Rubio that much credit. I think he will benefit as Walker's numbers fall, and he may get a bump if he is still around when Trump finally (if ever) goes away.  

Kasich really is the one to watch, even if the fact that all three of us would vote for him has got to work against him.  

Carson is a bit of a surprise, I like the guy, but I can't ignore the fact that his voice has a "Michael Tyson" quality to it, and is not exactly Presidential sounding. A fact that "should" not matter, but we all know better than that.  

I am rather pleased that Walker, Paul, Christie, Huckabee, Perry, Santorum, Graham, et al seem to be going nowhere but home and personally I can't wait until these also rans call it a day and quit clogging up the airwaves.

I wish there were a way for me to bet on "anyone but Hillary" on the Democratic side, not that I "want' anyone but Hillary, it's that Hillary is still a -500 betting favorite to win the nomination, and I think there is at least an even money chance she either loses or is forced to drop out. I would love to get odds at three to one that someone else wins,

Now as for who I would like to win on the Dem side, the only one I can get the least bit enthusiastic about would be Webb, but I doubt he has much chance. I would have to say the most likely Dem to win after Hillary would be our crazy Uncle Joe. What great options we will have if it turns out be Biden vs Bush. I guess it could be worse, how about a Sanders vs Trump matchup, If we are back to $80 oil, I might consider cashing out if those were our options. lol

And if its like I think, it will be Kasich or Bush, neither of whom fit into your "crazy" R category.

Don't forget this one thing. Many here know about Hills stolen valor claim but the majority of public does not.  

Obama didn't go after her with that in 2007-08 and since Hills lost the nomination, R's had no reason to being it out.

The video of her recounting that story of being fired on juxtaposed with the  video of her getting off that plane smiling, shaking hands, laughing...will make her look fking awful and appear to be a total fraud.

The R strategy will be to drive her untrustworthy numbers up, and they have the ammo to do it, and if Carly is the VP they will blunt that "war on women" crap as well.

I still can't stand her, but if she does get nominated and survives politically speaking until Election Day, I still will most likely hold my nose and vote for her, and this is coming from a guy who gets irritated just hearing the sound of her voice.

"IF" it comes down to Hillary vs anyone from the GOP and it looks like the GOP will maintain even split control of Congress, the only ones from the right side of the aisle I see myself voting for against her would be Carson or Kasich, neither of them too likely to be getting the nomination, but yes I would whole heartedly support either of them over Hillary. As for Bush, I would most likely vote for him against Crazy Uncle Joe, but not against Hillary. I can hold my nose long enough to cast my ballot for her.

As for both Benghazi and the emails , I believe she is guilty as hell, just like I have NO doubt she was guilty in White Water, but where it comes to Benghazi, I believe she had to give cover to her boss Obama, and that the real blame lies with him, and the emails just aren't a big enough deal to me to vote for the GOP controlling both the Legislative and Executive branches of government.

I still think this is all moot, as I really believe her campaign is going to implode and that she will NOT be on the ballot come next November.

Have you seen Carly on the talk show/interview circuit? She is incredible. She eviscerates Hillary and calls her out on all her bullshit the way no guy R could do, and it is WAY more respected than a Palin doing it.

Stolen valor issue has nothing to do with outrage at this point. It will cement Hills as a lying, deceitful untrustworthy candidate. It will be a very powerful weapon.

Video can destroy a candidate. Ask Howard Dean and that little dude you guys put up in that tank with the huge helmet. lo

Clinton even with all the Benghazi related email brouhaha swirling around her will ultimately be the Democratic nominee. Anyone here who thinks the Justice Department under this Administration is going to indict Hillary needs to get their head examined, I call it wishful thinking or whistling past the grave yard. Now if the Justice Department decides to en-panel an Independent prosecutor, then all bets are off and Hillary Clinton is in serious, serious, trouble.

On the Republican side, either Bush or Kaisch will be the nominee. If the country is in a serious recession in the fall/spring time frame then all the ugly memories/questions about how Bush II handled the previous GREAT Recession come storming back, which will not help Bush III. Kaisch is the man to beat IMHO, he has "pragmatically" governed a purple state -Ohio- very effectively. If Republicans want to win the White House in 2016, Kaisch is the man to nominate, IMHO.

Rubio has ZERO chance of being the nominee, he's too unseasoned politically and also his initial backing of the Senate Immigration reform bill has done serious damage to his support among the Tea Party base.  Rubio's only hope of occupying the WH is if one of the top two candidates offers him a VP slot.

Trump the big elephant in the room, no pun intended, is having a whale of time. Teflon Trump with all his money and private plane can stay in the race for as long as he wants, doing untold damage to the Republican brand with his ridiculous daily utterances. I like how Trump stared down Roger Ailes, the head of Fox News, post debate and WON!

Now about Scott Walker, what good has he done for the State of Wisconsin besides sow division and discord among Wisconsinites. Is this a guy we want as POTUS

And there is a HUGE difference between the stolen valor claim and Bush's gaffe.  

Hills ONLY walked it back YEARS later after being shown the vid. She was CLEARLY lying.

Bush, on the other hand, immediately walked backed his statements.

If you think the two are even remotely comparable, you are incredibly mistaken

She was up by 15 points just a few months ago, she is now down several.

That is a monumental shift in just a few months so yeah, that vid will certainly add to her woes.

Trump has done a masterful job tapping into right wing anti-establishment anger. He has been aided in no small part by Fox News, the defacto GOP propaganda wing, who for decades have been fanning the flames of anti-immigrant, anti-government paranoia, resentment of feminists, gays, "the moocher class" and of course those "scary brown people" with calves the size of watermelons. It is this "conservative echo chamber" that Trump has adroitly tapped into and will keep doing so until he finally flames out. However, I don't really expect Teflon Trump to flame out anytime soon....lol

END OF MESSAGE

about what she did during her tenure.  

The issue is did she use her private email for exchanging data that was clearly marked as classified information by the sender? If the data was not clearly marked, then no laws were broken. If the data gets classified later, there is no case either.

Agencies classify data as secret to get around FOIA all the time.  

Congress can appoint a special prosecutor, they haven't done it because they don't have a case.

...providing both sides of the story and having liberals on every single night! Lol

You are a fkin whoot bro!

And of course the kids over at Kos botch the headline and you suck it up as gospel.

She didn't say "no minimum wage", she said minimum wages should be set at the state level.

That tells me how great she'd be on the ticket because you have to resort to lying about her position. LOL

A non-starter

Most people are well aware that when it comes to reporting the news, Fox News is an absolute joke. Their slogan is “fair and balanced,” but it’s obvious to anyone who’s even the slightest bit objective that they’re neither. Which is fine. If they want to be a shill for the GOP, go right ahead. But at least admit to it.

Even former Senate Republican, Tom Coburn (R-OK), doesn’t think Fox News is “fair and balanced.” While speaking at Tulsa Community College in Oklahoma, Coburn said, “There are certain shows on Fox I can’t watch. Because they’re totally not fair and totally not balanced. What I want is, I want all the information in which I can make the best decision.”

MSNBC is partisan, but it doesn’t really try to hide that fact. It doesn’t masquerade as the network giving “fair and balanced” news. It doesn’t go around telling its viewers that they’re the only network they can trust. That’s what Fox News does.  

FWIW, Fox News corporate executives must realize by now that their main audience is clearly a diminishing demographic going forward...lol.  

I guessed they didn't get the memo of what "most people are well aware" of?

And the liberal jealousy and obsession of Fox News continues...

 

 

 

-- Modified on 8/19/2015 12:15:30 AM

It's pointless to speculate at this point on any of this. Warren isn't going to jump in. I don't think Gore has enough support to beat anyone, and it would just humiliate Biden if he made a serious run. There are only two things to watch in this race. 1) Bernie Sanders' poll ratings against Hillary and 2) if Donald Trump implodes.  

I'm not convinced yet that Trump isn't doing this for the publicity. He may drop out of the race at some point, even if he could win. But the longer he's in the race, the less press time all the other Republicans get, and it will make it very difficult for the to win come November.  

The demographics are still not looking good for Republicans. Short of an amazing candidate on the Republican side, you can expect the Dems to take the White House for the foreseeable future.

what happened to the leftist baters?  some of them came from Air America.
They drove it off the air with the 'huge' following they had......now are gone from MSNBC......

.......which failed spectacularly. Trump's poll numbers since the  Fox debate "ambush" have surged, while Bush's have slipped....lol. After the debate, Fox News got a barrage of negative feedback/death threats from many of their viewership complaining about the Fox News moderators treatment of Trump. Also soon after Trump began boycotting Fox News and calling into the news shows of rival networks, a panicked Roger Ailes ran tail between the legs to plead with Trump not to boycott his network.  

So I ask, Roger Ailes, who's your Daddy now?...........lol😀😀

  -- Modified on 8/19/2015 10:38:20 AM

-- Modified on 8/19/2015 11:44:01 AM

No need to fact check him.

You are safe to always assume the the Lying Arrogant Fapping Fraudulent Yammer is always lying.

Between his reading/watching and believing  kos and al-jazeera and other terrorist sources, what else do you expect.

 

Thank you

but even though the odds makers have her at -500 to win, I don't think it's quite the slam dunk you think it is.

Bernie's poll numbers don't matter for shit, even less than Trump's. Trump has the money to make a serious run at the White House if he chooses, (he'll lose, but he can still make the run) Sander's has ZERO chance of winning, no one in power wants him. Obama only pretended to be against big business and Wall St., buy has proven himself to be in their pocket as I am sure you will agree. Sanders really is against ALL business, just like you, and no one in power is going to bankroll his run. Do you honestly believe that a bunch of very successful capitalists in a capitalistic country are going to allow an admitted socialist to have the least bit of power over them? Get real Willy, It flat out is NOT going to happen.

I think the odds are at least even money that a Rep wins the White House "If" Hillary implodes, if the Hillary campaign survives until election day I will agree that she is the odds on favorite to win, no matter who she is running against.

Kinda destroys your original point about Fox, huh Honda? LOL

Hillary, IF she makes it to GE, would not beat a Kasich/Fiorina or Kasich/Rubio ticket imo.

Hills is a badly damaged and TERRIBLE candidate. The ONLY thing she has going for her is her vagina, something that would beat most R's but not all.

The R's will unite at some point, and will launch a full on attack on Hills that I don think she could beat. She has the benefit now of the R's sniping at each other but when that stops, that will all turn towards her.

She is NOT anywhere near the candidate Bill was. She has no warmth, no charisma, no personality, she is wrapped in scandal, will be forced to answer for all things Obama, she will lose a sizable chunk of the Black and youth vote and she does not have the Teflon coating slick Willy had.

She has fallen like a rock in the polls only 2 months, has only a favorability rating in the high 30's which is disastrous for someone so well known and is having trouble fending off a socialist who is damn near 80 years old! LOL

Add all that to her horrendous tenure at State, and that is a candidate who is extraordinarily weak and vulnerable.

I think Kasich beats her soundly.

I also think a Rubio/Fiorina ticket would beat her.

I also believe that the only person who is going to beat Hillary is Hillary herself, but I give her at least a 50-50 chance of doing just that.  

I don't give Kasich much of a chance of winning the nomination, the very fact that you, me and Jack all agree he'd make a decent POTUS is the kiss of death for a candidate. I will allow that "if" it came down to a Kasich vs Clinton GE, He might not win, but he could get enough moderate Dems who can't stand Hillary to make it very very close, not to mention the fact that he should win in his home state of Ohio which is a very important swing state.

As for Rubio, I don't think he has a prayer, even I wouldn't think twice about voting for "the beast" over him.

Now if HIllary does implode, I think the most likely nominee will be Biden, and Biden could lose to any of the major GOP candidates, even the ones I loathe like Walker would most likely beat him. I mean honestly, do you really want Crazy Uncle Joe in charge of anything?

many of them fear Rubio the most, for many good reasons.

We'll just disagree on the viability of Rubio's chances against Hills.

One represents the future and new school and vibrancy, the other old school, back room politics and scandal.

in spite of the fact that she is most definitely no Bill Clinton. As you said, no warmth, no charisma, no personality and the more you see of her the less likeable she becomes. Even so, I think she can still beat just about anyone the GOP will throw against her. I do agree that if by some miracle Kasich can win the nomination, he can give her a good run for her money, but he is still a long shot for the nomination. Fuck the polls, follow the experts with money on the line. the current betting odds are 12-1 on Kasich.

Speaking of odds, Trump has gone from almost "off the board" to a tie for second pick with Walker at 4-1, Now THAT is a bit surprising. Bush is still the favorite, but not "odds on" at 3-2 and Rubio rounds out the top tier at 7-1.  Hillary is still holding stead at 1-5 and boy would I LOVE to book some of that action. Hillary "should" win, but if I could book action at 5-1 against her, I'd put at least a few grand against her, those odds are just too good to turn down.

Hey I wonder how many of our looney libs would be willing to give "current odds" on her winning? The problem is, trying to collect from any of the deadbeats willing to bet on her. Can you imagine trying to collect from the likes of Hadji, fatgirl or Senor Grumpy?

Its been all over the place.

As far as the betting lines though, they are meaningless. The public moves those lines after they are set.

Did you see the Nate Silver article? He puts Trumps chances at 2%, no where near 4-1 odds the dumbass public thinks.  

Kasich at 12-1 drives my point home. Kasich is WAYYYYYYYYYY more likely to be the nominee than Trump. The two aren't even in the same hemisphere.

It's not like partisan dems aren't any less objective and it makes it hard to agree with you when you start again with that crap

Your other bullshit aside, I do agree with you about Rubio being chronologically young, but still offering the same old social conservative crap of his grandparents generation.  

I don't see many Dems being terrified of Rubio either. He is another one that the more I learn about him, the less I like him. If elected he would do the same as Walker, Perry, Santorum or Huckabee and squander his power outlawing a woman's right to choose and waging war on the LGTB community.  He reminds me of a brown version of the lily white "Young Republicans" of the 60s-70's

We are seeing a major shift in this country. Obama being elected twice demonstrates this. You have cities and states all over the country raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. This would be unthinkable prior to 2008. Look at what happened in Furgeson.  

The reality is that people have grown tired of big business calling the shots. They've had enough. After 8 years of Bush followed by a financial collapse, they've had enough. People believed that Obama would address these problems. For the most part he didn't, and you saw the rise of the Occupy movement. Now you see people protesting against the police for fuck's sake.  

I dunno how much you guys follow the inside baseball of leftist politics, it seems that most of the people here are more closely following things on the right. But the reality is that there is not a single candidate in this race that has more loyal supporters than Bernie. A few weeks back the Hillary camp tried an experiment where she had a surrogate attack Bernie to try to boost Hillary's favorability in the left. It back fired. It resulted in more support for Bernie and less for Hillary. Why? Because the base of the left is fucking *loyal* to Bernie.  

This election so far is proving to be a total rejection of the establishment. You see that with Trump's double digit leads. Even conservatives understand that our election system is broken and big business has too much influence. They might not be able to understand why, but they know things are broken.  

Bernie is the only candidate who is addressing these problems and actually speaks to people's issues. And big business will hate him. The media, with their campaign dollar gravy train is also going to hate him, but the public are the ones who choose who wins and loses and the public hates big business and they hate the media.  

In times past, the media ignoring you would spell the death of any candidacy. If you can't grease the asses of the corporate shitheads who run the for profit media, then you're essentially barred from running. But things are different now. We have the internet and social media. And it's now become a cliche to say that "in the media Bernie is nowhere. On the internet, Bernie is everywhere."

Before Obama got elected he became a bit of a rock star. Packing in stadiums of people wanting to hear him speak. Well guess what? Bernie is doing that now. And Bernie isn't just packing them in in the bluest of blue states. He's doing it in the red states too. We're seeing Bernie pack damn near 30,000 people into events. Bernie packed in 5 times more people in the same location that Bobby Jindal did when he announced his candidacy. This is in Louisiana, folks. Bernie routinely is packing in more people then all the other candidates combined. And Bernie is doing this while we're still a half a year out from the first primaries.  

You can't underestimate any candidate when he's doing this everywhere he goes.

Did you get that from Kos or did you come up with that all by yourself? LOL

and a LOT of very rational people realize that ever leaving Iraq in the first place was a horrible mistake, one that the next POTUS is going to have to fix somehow.

As for Walker, no disagreements here. I might even vote for Uncle Joe over a fanatical thumper like him.

but if you are in a wagering mood, I'll give you 50-1 that Bernie will NOT be POTUS,

and if you think I am only offering to take action on long shots that I don't think I will ever have to pay off on, How about this one. I will take 3-1 odds against Hillary. Hillary is the 1-5 betting favorite right now, I am offering 40% better odds than you can get with any bookie taking action on her.  

Feeling lucky?

Lets start there. LOL

Never mind, post as you wish, and PLEASE don't let facts get in the way.  

Hillary is still the odds on favorite to win the nomination according to EVERYBODY, even with all the legal problems she is facing. Rubio can't even crack ten percent amongst Republicans, so spare me the outrage about Rubio and his Magic R.

END OF MESSAGE

guess the lefties/Dems/Socialists have forgotten Joe ran twice for President......didn't make a dent in the polls..dropped out early.  NOW they think he is fabulous?  Can understand... that looking at the Dem Klown Kar

I still don't think I would get many takers. Besides anyone clueless enough to make that bet is unlikely to pay up when they lose. I have made bets on this board before, but I'd have to get Willy's money up front.

Biden is a BUFFOON.  

Imagine the negative ads that we would run against him? How would we narrow down all the dumbass statements?  

Its just gaffe after gaffe after gaffe...

He isn't just IN the Dem clown car, he is the driver!

It is SOOOOO funny watching you defend Crazy old plagiarizing Uncle Joe! Please don't stop