Iran's leaders may have laughed too soon

By Karim Sadjadpour
Commentary by

Tuesday, April 10, 2007


"You know the thing about Iran," a European ambassador in Tehran once lamented to me. "It has such a rich culture, a grand history, wonderful people. The cuisine is sophisticated and the scenery is breathtaking. It's got incredible poets, musicians and filmmakers. Beautiful art and architecture. But it's cursed with lousy politicians."

[Xiao - hey, sounds a lot like France].


I was reminded of these words when watching the pageantry last week of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announcing that 15 British sailors and marines held captive in Iran would be "pardoned" as an Easter "gift" to the British people in a gesture of magnanimity from "the generous Iranian nation." Hard-liners in Tehran are probably still congratulating themselves, believing the entire incident to be a diplomatic victory. After all, Iran publicly humiliated its long-time nemesis, the United Kingdom, and won the release of an Iranian official who had been detained in Iraq.

But at what cost? From a diplomatic perspective Tehran may feel like it has chastened the Europeans, so that they will think twice before working in concert with the United States. In fact it has likely achieved the opposite effect. Instead of splitting the international coalition assembled against Iran by weaning the Europeans away from the Americans - a strategy which Iran successfully employed during the era of reformist President Mohammed Khatami - Iran's leaders have further eroded European confidence that they are mature and amenable to diplomatic compromise.

And what effect will this have on the moribund Iranian economy, the regime's Achilles heel? Is the multinational corporation looking for investment opportunities in the Middle East going to go to Iran or to Dubai? Is the international energy firm looking to sign lucrative natural gas contracts going to choose Iran or Qatar? Are European tourists who were planning to visit the Middle East this year going to journey to Iran or to Egypt? In every case, Iran's recent behavior will probably help undermine trust that interacting with the country is a good bet.  

Iranian hard-liners similarly proclaimed victory after the 444-day hostage crisis in 1979 with Washington, which humiliated the Carter administration. While three decades on the crisis is a blip in the history of the US, Iran continues to pay for it in terms of a blemished international reputation, political and economic isolation, and vastly unfulfilled potential.


And what about the Iranian people, for whom Ahmadinejad professes to speak? They have been diminished to a mere footnote during his presidency - amidst all the bustle surrounding uranium enrichment, centrifuges, Holocaust denial, and now British sailors; this, despite the fact that Ahmadinejad's campaign platform was about compassion for the common man and putting oil money on people's dinner tables.

Before announcing the release of the sailors, Ahmadinejad felt compelled to lecture the West on gender sensitivity, asking why the UK would send Faye Turney, a mother, on such a compromising mission. "Why don't they respect the values of families in the West?" he asked, "Why is there no respect for motherhood?"

His remarks came one month after a few dozen Iranian women were arrested and beaten while peacefully assembling against laws which, among other things, permit the stoning of women to death if they are convicted of adultery, and deny them equal rights in divorce, custody and inheritance matters. I'm sure the double standard was lost on Ahmadinejad.

In characteristic fashion, Iranian hard-liners are consumed by making short-term tactical gains at the expense of advancing long-term interests. In the short term Iran stuck its finger in the eye of the West and put a smile on the face of millions around the world - especially in the Islamic world - who abhor Western policies in the Middle East.

But once the dust settles in Tehran, more sober officials will come to realize that Iran has only increased the distance it will need to travel before it can reintegrate into the international community and assume its rightful position as a respected member of the partnership of nations.




Karim Sadjadpour recently joined the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace after serving four years as chief Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. He is a regular contributor to BBC Radio & TV, CNN and National Public Radio, and has written in The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The New Republic. This commentary originally appeared on The Washington Post-Newsweek PostGlobal blog (www.newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal) and is published by permission.


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-- Modified on 4/10/2007 7:39:34 PM