There is no way I would bet on college sports.
Simple story, D1 football P5 conference team I was the punter. Up 17 with about 30 seconds to go and we had the ball. Backup linemen on the punt team led to my kick getting blocked. The coach wanted to toughen his second team D so he sent them in to finish the game. The other team scored and made the two point conversion, with five seconds left. Instead of winning by 17 we won by nine. Based on the drunken pissed off alum I saw after the game his bets on the point spread and the under both flipped because of the ending. All because the coach wanted to get guys some garbage time snapsI will never bet College basketball again. Indiana fucked up my parlay had them with the under 150 those dumb sumbitches foul Ohio State with 30sec left down 12 to make this score go over. At what fucking point do you stop fouling. SMH
Some teams will play until the very last second, no matter how far down they are, others will give up with three minutes to go, only down by six or eight, sending the game into "garbage time"
One of the hardest things about handicapping/betting Basket Ball is trying to predict how each team with play at the end when the outcome is no longer in question. When you figure it out, please let me know. I've been doing this for decades and have never been able to find a "system" for winning at basket ball consistently.
I have to say between Baseball, Football, Basketball and Hockey. Basketball is the hardest to win money at on a consistent basis. I am an experienced enough gambler to know when I won by pure dumb luck, and when I actually had a clue as to what I was doing. The betting outcome on meaningless scores is a higher percentage on basketball than any other sport, with the possible exception of "empty netters" in hockey, but I LOVE empty net goals in hockey, they have made me ten of thousands of dollars over the years. lol
I would have to agree with you where it pertains to basketball its definitely more difficult to win money and predict outcomes. Funny you mention hockey that's what I was initially planning to wager on, however I haven't seen any lines the past few days, and without football, I needed a fix lol sadly I chose the wrong sport. Like the stock market this is one heck of a rollercoaster. Garbage minutes giveth and they taketh away.
Or whatever they call it. Truth be told I don't know shit about hockey, but that hasn't stopped me from making money on it. I treat it much like baseball, I give the puck line parlayed with the over on high scoring teams. That's why I say that the "empty net" has saved me countless times.
I don't shit about hockey either, except for the Blues and the Bruins I try to follow those teams. And watching it is even worse except when money Is involved.
try betting the over/under { usually 5 1/2 }..high scoring teams are usually a gimme..good payout especially on parlays..
I don't usually do the overs in hockey, I prefer sticking with the blues or Bruins on the ML or the spread.
I will start following the overs more closely, as you maybe on to something.
check each teams " Goals For"..usually the highest scoring teams playing each other is a lock..teams like Buffalo or Florida are almost always " unders"..
I will start following the overs more closely, as you maybe on to something.
and when two very high scoring teams play each other, the bookies will mitigate their losses by setting the line at something like "over 5 1/2 -135" which is as you are starting to discover a suckers bet, and a sure way to the poor house.
MacDiaper is correct when he states that the O/U is usually about 5 1/2 on a typical night you will find one or two games at 5, maybe one at 6, and all the rest at 5 1/2. What he fails to tell you and is why I know that he is not a serious gambler, or at least not a smart one, is that the O/U will range from may +110 to -145, which makes some bets a relative bargain, and others a sucker bet. One way to mitigate this of course is to do parlays with a side bet on the same bet, if you can get a decent price on the side bet, whether that bet be a money line, or a puck line bet, giving up minus 20 or even minus 30 on the O/U can still yield a bet with good value.
I know you are probably sick of hearing me use that term, but if you are going to gamble for the long haul, getting "good value" is a must. NOONE can handicap well enough to make up for making bad value bets for any length of time, it simply can not be done. The juice will eat you up.
I was busy all day today so I couldn't check the lines, you are right though for me anything over -120 on a over is a suckers bet.
If I can get good value on the lines, It appears Mac maybe on to something with these NHL overs. I will continue to monitor the games over the next few days.
-- Modified on 1/27/2015 5:04:02 PM
betting on spreads are designed to drive you insane..and they are almost always right on within a point or two..
What happens is mentally you start looking for patterns that may or may not exist.
If you want to put this to the test, here is a way to be objective. Save the lines from any days action, go through every result at the end of the day and for every game that was within a point or two of the line, you will find several that were several points off.
I will confess, it SEEMS like the linesmen are uncanny, but setting a line is easy, any gambler even a bit more than a casual bettor should be able to pick the line within a point or two. BEATING the line is quite a different matter, and a whole lot harder. but setting the line is easy.
However spreads are a crap shoot, but the payoff is worth it.
I know you said college basketball, but the same applies..
No
Bank
Account
Tomorrow (later today. It's 1:50am - way past my bedtime) William Hill will have printouts of the Super Bowl prop bets. Wonder what safety/no safety will look like this year.
how's it going...... dang only if you could have posted this Friday or Saturday sure could've used some advice from you.
And safety/no safety I think don't quote me on this is +800 yes and No -120
Safety +525/-800
What happens first for
Pats Score +135 punt -165
Hawks Score +145 punt -175
Will Pats/hawks score each quarter
Same our both
+230/-280
I love this whole "pick the final score" deal.
Too bad you can't parlay some of these crazy prop bets
apologies on the wrong line info, couldn't find it on my book. +525/800 those aren't good safety odds in my opinion.
I'm betting two props for the Super bowl, I need Julian Edelman to catch 7 or more passes and I'm betting on the coin toss. I'm waiting to see if anyone on the Pats team is suspended before I pick a game winner
Pick the final score Is giving incredible odds, if you have a good hunch I would go for it the payoff would be worth the risk... looks like the experts are leaning 24-20
Hawks 24 is 10/1
Pats 20 is 10/1
Hawks to win by 4 is 8/1
Margin 1-6 is 7/2
Pretty sure the books took a nice hit with that safety last year... I was watching from the Flamingos party in the ballroom and the place ERUPTED!
My book just released about a million props I had to laugh when I saw this one lol
NEW ENGLAND VRS SEATTLE: COLOR OF GATORADE THROWN
ORANGE+155
RED +693
BLUE +693
GREEN +1095
YELLOW +259
CLEAR (WATER) +312
NO GATORADE/LIQUID+241
That's one of the reason Vegas is my favorite city to visit, I'm sure they did erupt when Seattle recorded that safety... but that's one moment that I'd let to forget as I bet Denver last year and you can imagine my reaction when the 1st play of the game was a safety
I took them again at halftime.
Talk about salting a wound!
First official pass by Tom Brady incomplete +150. I may take it.
No Gatorade on this sheet, but I remember the "will Flea from RHCP go shirtless at halftime?"
Well, duh.
But I can only wonder how much money his bass tech put on that.
There is no way I would bet on college sports.
Simple story, D1 football P5 conference team I was the punter.
Up 17 with about 30 seconds to go and we had the ball. Backup linemen on the punt team led to my kick getting blocked. The coach wanted to toughen his second team D so he sent them in to finish the game. The other team scored and made the two point conversion, with five seconds left. Instead of winning by 17 we won by nine.
Based on the drunken pissed off alum I saw after the game his bets on the point spread and the under both flipped because of the ending. All because the coach wanted to get guys some garbage time snaps
It happens in football, but I can't think of a sport where it happens more than in basketball. I have also seen a casual flip from half court go in with no time left on the clock in a game that had long since been decided, but the fluke shot that the shooter himself was only half heartedly actually trying to make caused both the spread and the O/U bets to either cover or lose, depending of course on what side of the bet you were on.
It's just a fact of life in sports betting, just like in trading equities, it is a fact of life that occasionally the market makers are going to fuck you out of a trade. It sucks, but no one is forcing anyone to gamble. You either live with it, and try to account for it, or you quit betting.