If you have two evenly matched teams, the Home Team will be favored by 3. Move that game to a neutral site, and it becomes a pick-em. Move that game to the Road teams home, and it's 3 pts. the other way.
So Denver by 8 1/2, means that even if this game was in KC; Denver would still be favorite by 2 1/2. So Vegas really thinks there is a significant difference in talent level. For a 9-0 team to be over a TD underdog anywhere, is really unprecedented. I would love to know the last time that occurred. (OSP, I'm giving you some HW). The Chiefs are getting absolutely no respect. Their defense has been great all year. Nobody has scored more than 17 points off them all year. If that streak continues, the Chiefs win this one easily, because Denver's defense is mediocre at best. However, it's just hard to fathom Peyton being slowed down by anyone. He is playing at an amazingly high level. I'd suspect the Broncos to score in the high 20's. The Chiefs can keep it close (and cover the 8 1/2), but I don't think they win in Denver. Denver 28-24.-- Modified on 11/16/2013 1:45:29 PM
Denver vs. KC.
Denver -8.5 at home.
I won't share all the other intel I have because I wanna see your choices based on your knowledge of the criteria involved in this match up
Most people will tell you that homefield is worth 1pt. I think its worth 2-3. I'm taking the points.
However I wouldn't go any near that game, they're are much more easier games SD -1 at Miami or Cincy ML -240.
If you like money OSP stay away from that Denver game
I went ahead and placed nominal wagers on all of the games. I wanted to test my percentage rate all in one week. Which, bye the way, won't be an accurate measure. I'm curious what the outcome will be having bet all the games equally. DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME or without a net lol
I've chosen:
TB even
NYJ +1
Detroit -2.5
Philly -4.5
SD -1.5
Chicago -3
Cincy -6
Oak +7
Jax +8
KC +8.5
Seattle -12
SF +3
NYG -4.5
At $500 each lets see what the outcome is. Remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. For those who've considered gambling as a profession, see what you think.
This will probably mess up my winning percentage for the year.
AWAY we go. See ya'll tomorrow night. I MAY be single bye then lol
You'll be single sooner than you think lol....
I like the majority of your picks except the SF and KC pick. The line has dropped to SD -1... if you just have to bet the spread, put the 6500 on SD.. you'll be like a fat rat eating cheese Sunday night lol
Back to my Niners and their idiot coach and QB lol
I had Cincinnati on the ML.. so I'm pleased with the way my day turned out, however it does sting being wrong about that SD/MIA game.
And I told you never bet against Drew Brees lol
If you have two evenly matched teams, the Home Team will be favored by 3. Move that game to a neutral site, and it becomes a pick-em. Move that game to the Road teams home, and it's 3 pts. the other way.
So Denver by 8 1/2, means that even if this game was in KC; Denver would still be favorite by 2 1/2. So Vegas really thinks there is a significant difference in talent level.
For a 9-0 team to be over a TD underdog anywhere, is really unprecedented. I would love to know the last time that occurred. (OSP, I'm giving you some HW). The Chiefs are getting absolutely no respect. Their defense has been great all year. Nobody has scored more than 17 points off them all year. If that streak continues, the Chiefs win this one easily, because Denver's defense is mediocre at best. However, it's just hard to fathom Peyton being slowed down by anyone. He is playing at an amazingly high level. I'd suspect the Broncos to score in the high 20's. The Chiefs can keep it close (and cover the 8 1/2), but I don't think they win in Denver. Denver 28-24.
-- Modified on 11/16/2013 1:45:29 PM
You mentioned (rightfully so) that KC gets no respect, add to the mix that Denver with Peyton has been a bettors favorite all year. The job of a linesman is two fold, besides being an idicator of Vegas' idea of the talent level of the teams, the main job of a linesman is to "middle the money" this is how you end up with Overlays" IMO, and this is quite possibly one of those times.
Denver is today where NE has found themselves many times over the years, a high scoring, bettors favorite with an impressive record. Do they deserve it? Will they cover today? Questions easier asked than answered. I may just take a pass on the game myself, I see easier money out there, also I don't like the O/U of 49, KC's defense is not to be taken lightly. SD kept the score down to a total of 48 last week, and KC's D is a lot better than that of the Chargers, the same Chargers that are 28th against the pass.
TP won't play for Oak so guess what? Lol
I'm giving away puntos now
TBH, I had only planned on playing the Seattle, NYG and NE games this week. I would have been up bye 4k at this time lol. It was only last minute that I considered the Chiefs game.
That was kinda fun but too much tension.