I wouldn't bet a penny on the 4-5 Chargers traveling 3000 plus miles to play at the 4-5 Dolphins. Nor would I bet a penny on the 4-5 Dolphins hosting the 4-5 Chargers. Flip a coin my friend. You are guaranteeing a mediocre road team to beat a mediocre home team. Really??? That's your advice for picking games???
If you want to guarantee Alabama defeating Bridgewater State, okay. But this is the NFL. It took Seattle (prob. the best home team in the league) to OT to beat a winless Tampa team two weeks ago. That's NFL football. A weekly crapshoot. Even guaranteeing Cincinnati to beat Cleveland is foolish. Divisional games are notoriously difficult by nature. Opponents know each other quite well and the games are often close. Besides, Cleveland is playing better of late (ironically since the Trent Richardson trade ... go figure) Cincinnati has looked putrid the last two weeks. Again, a game I wouldn't bet on (let alone make a guarantee on the outcome)-- Modified on 11/13/2013 6:13:16 AM
ive been getting in a couple of football pools at work there is only about 20 people and we pick against the spread all games are picked and the most right wins everyone puts in 20 bucks but its always the same 2 or 3 people that win they dont get all of them right but usually they only have 2 or 3 wrong does anyone here pick that good id sure like to win for 1 week and break there streak i usually get 5 or 6 wrong which is good for third (but no money)
I bet on football and I've only lost two games this year. I bet the Giants over Carolina and Baltimore over Cleveland.
Nothing is guaranteed in sports.. if 75% of your picks wins I would call that a success
That if you have a 67% success rate, you can gamble for a living
I bet less so I need to win on 75 to 80% average.
I'm going huge on Cincinnati... I think they win and cover the spread this week
I don't even pretend to pick that well, nor do i ever expect to. and quite frankly IMO anyone who makes such a claim either doesn't play too much, and has a rather small sample size, or is just fooling himself.
If you ever watch the so called experts, guys who get paid millions of dollars, none of them pick 75% over the long haul.
I am not calling bullshit on your claim, but I have been cut off from multiple bookies, one of my two current bookies has been whining that i haven't had to pay him but once over the last 18 months or so, and is hinting that he may no longer want my action as badly as I beat him at baseball this year, and I don't pick anywhere near 75%, I just try to load up on the right games.
Sorry, CorC, but your statement sounds like one made by an amateur, especially the one about betting less and needing to win at a higher percentage. I have days, and even weeks where I hit the 75% mark, some weeks it seems like you can do no wrong, but when about 25% of the games come down to a single play, or one bad call, expecting to pick 75% over the long haul is a fool's errand.
I only bet 2 or 3 games on a Sunday sometime 1 so I need to win at a higher percentage than the bettor who bets 5-10 games a week.
and actually you don't need to win at a higher percentage than the guy that bets 5-10 games a week, if you are betting money line favorites, you need to win at a higher percentage than someone betting either against the spread, or a lot more than someone who bets underdogs against the money line. Someone picking dogs at lets say +200 would only have to average 33% in order to break even.
we have to pick them all ats
Nothing is guaranteed in sports.. if 75% of your picks wins I would call that a success
Keep in mind the only two games that are guaranteed 100% to win are Cincinnati and San Diego the other games I'm just simply guessing and would never bet them. If you're a betting man like me Take Cincy or SD on the ML there is no way you lose.
Indianapolis at Tennessee Indianapolis
NY Jets at Buffalo Buffalo
Baltimore at Chicago Baltimore
Cleveland at Cincinnati Cincinnati
Washington at Philadelphia Washington
Detroit at Pittsburgh Detroit
Atlanta at Tampa Bay Atlanta
Arizona at Jacksonville Arizona
Oakland at Houston Houston
San Diego at Miami San Diego
San Francisco at New Orleans New Orleans
Green Bay at NY Giants NY Giants
Minnesota at Seattle Seattle
Kansas City at Denver Denver
I wouldn't bet a penny on the 4-5 Chargers traveling 3000 plus miles to play at the 4-5 Dolphins. Nor would I bet a penny on the 4-5 Dolphins hosting the 4-5 Chargers. Flip a coin my friend. You are guaranteeing a mediocre road team to beat a mediocre home team. Really??? That's your advice for picking games???
If you want to guarantee Alabama defeating Bridgewater State, okay. But this is the NFL. It took Seattle (prob. the best home team in the league) to OT to beat a winless Tampa team two weeks ago. That's NFL football. A weekly crapshoot.
Even guaranteeing Cincinnati to beat Cleveland is foolish. Divisional games are notoriously difficult by nature. Opponents know each other quite well and the games are often close. Besides, Cleveland is playing better of late (ironically since the Trent Richardson trade ... go figure) Cincinnati has looked putrid the last two weeks. Again, a game I wouldn't bet on (let alone make a guarantee on the outcome)
-- Modified on 11/13/2013 6:13:16 AM
San Diego and Cincinnati are 99.9% locks to win unless something crazy happens like Rivers or Dalton getting hurt those should be easy money.
I've been wrong before so you don't have to take my advice, but if you like money load up on SD or Cincy
and I agree with StheS that SD and Miami is a coin toss. I give the edge to SD, and I will most likely bet them after watching them play Denver tough and watching the Fins not only struggle, but lose outright to the hapless Buc's
Play for a few years, get beaten by Hail Mary's or a bad call on your lock of the week, and you will lose that word guarantee from your vocabulary. lol I think you will also find out for yourself that giving long odds like the -240 you will have to lay this weekend on the Cle-Cincy game, is not the road to fortune in gambling.
Giving the money line on big favorites is a trap that many new gamblers fall into thinking that there is NO WAY their team can lose, trust me the saying "that's why they play the game" has never been truer than when applied to the NFL. As I told you once a few months ago, value is what you look for, and there is no value in a -240 bet, unless you are betting on a replay. You are every bookie's dream the way you are playing right now, even if you are ahead right now, your bookie doesn't "think" he "knows" that in the long run your money will belong to him.
I really can't see how you guys can call SD and Miami a toss up... Miami is currently going through a bullying scandal and coming off a loss to the Bucs, playing against a team desperate for a win.
With both of us agreeing that SD will win.. I will say great minds think alike..
And while I do agree with you that laying -240 on Cincy doesn't give great Value, that's easy money that I'm not willing to pass up
you forgot about new england and carolina ill try your picks in the pool and let you know if i win thanks
Indianapolis at Tennessee Indianapolis
NY Jets at Buffalo Buffalo
Baltimore at Chicago Baltimore
Cleveland at Cincinnati Cincinnati
Washington at Philadelphia Washington
Detroit at Pittsburgh Detroit
Atlanta at Tampa Bay Atlanta
Arizona at Jacksonville Arizona
Oakland at Houston Houston
San Diego at Miami San Diego
San Francisco at New Orleans New Orleans
Green Bay at NY Giants NY Giants
Minnesota at Seattle Seattle
Kansas City at Denver Denver
Last time I checked the Patriots were +3, but I like them in a upset.
Weather conditions, the changing spread, injury reports etc.
Do I get a percentage lol
ve been a rabid football fan for 40 years (since I was learning to walk). It is my passion. I drive 7 plus hours to see the Steelers play home games and go to a few road games as well. As far as fans go, I consider myself to be quite knowledgeable and informed. Having prefaced with that, I am fairly confident a monkey could pick NFL games just as well as I could.
Betting on the NFL is extremely difficult. It is why Vegas sports books LOVE people who think they know football by wagering big money. It's foolish betting.
So don't worry about your office pool. If you get a few wrong each week your doing fine. Join the club. It's a complete crapshoot when betting with the point spread. (Obviously, you should do a little better if you are just picking teams to win straight up).
No advice you receive here is going to help you win a weekly pool. Nobody, as a general rule, does well picking NFL games. Have fun and enjoy.
but there are many people that make a very healthy living betting sports. I don't do it professionally, but I have had several years where I have netted six digits, and overall in my lifetime I am well ahead in sports betting.
One thing I would like to make perfectly clear is that there are thousands of people who know a lot more about any given sport, like football than I do, that doesn't mean that they do better at gambling than me. That the main reason I don't do fantasy football, IMO fantasy football encourages "information overload" and is counter productive to making a profit each week.
I don't get too emotionally invested in any one bet, I will occasionally load up on a particular game, like NO and the over thiis last week against Dallas, which saved my entire week, but as a rule, I look at this as a marathon not a sprint and trying to convince yourself that any game is a complete lock is a sure way to end up in the poor house.