That's what makes this so mind boggling.
How do you give up 3 runs in the 9th inning.. fucking pathetic
Fuck you Curly!!!
When was the last time you saw Kimbrel and the Braves blow a game as badly as they blew today's game. I didn't give the 1 1/2 today as the Braves were the dog and there was no alternative run line because today's game was a "write in", so I bet them +103 and the over 7, I was pretty happy at 4-3 thinking that I had a win/push, I was ecstatic when it went to 5-3, I mean that's a pretty safe lead with Kimbrel on the mound, yeah right. Like I said, I feel you pain, and it most likely cost me a lot more money than it did you. lol
You can bet the Fucker Curly is somewhere salivating at the chance to rub that shit in.
And yes it probably did cost you more, as I tend to tread softly when it comes to baseball.. but it's a bad feeling nonetheless!
Hopefully we can come away with a split!
Which is why when Mighty Casey finally strikes out, it's such a shock. Kimbrel has been money since he's been here. I blame the loss on myself, I am just entering a cold streak, that's my only explanation. lol
That's what makes this so mind boggling.
Yes, after as long a season as you have endured I guess you are entitled to this small victory. I guess you don't have any plans for October though, while we will still be playing baseball in Atlanta. lol
sorry, I couldn't resist the dig, but I had already spent that money today. Come on, a two run lead in the ninth with Kimbrel on the mound. That's been guaranteed money ever since he's been with us. FUCK FUCK FUCK!!! go ahead and laugh fucker, I can hear you all the way through my monitor. lol
You know about the 2nd Wild Card, don't you? Its very much doable with Cincy being lukewarm at best, and we being HOT !- HOT !!-- HOT !!!
My laughter might haunt you tonight for the double header... 
You might want to put your money on CIN-HOU game... Just sayin'....
I first thought, may be send you an email with just maniacal laughter, but seeing you guys post here.. This is a freakin' goldmine....
I have to keep a long term season profitability mindset or I go nuts. I think process process process to myself. I trust that if I have gone through the right process I have done enough to make money over the 162 game season. More than anywhere else, making the right decision and still losing is part of baseball betting for me...
Like Wainwright was killing it and then he developed a tell or Cincy picked one out and they just slaughtered him twice in a row. I thought his season and maybe career was over due to overuse... But, Chris Carpenter figured it out and Wainwright was back to dominance. The edge between brilliance and mediocre is so damn small in Baseball...
to borrow another old saw, "it's a marathon, not a sprint"
When betting baseball I look for value. You're right it's a very long season with literally thousands of games to bet on, getting all wrapped up in a single game is not the path to long term prosperity.
The biggest mistake most bettors make in baseball is betting on heavy favorites, again "no value" the best team in baseball is going to lose over fifty games, and the worst team in baseball is going to win over fifty, giving long odds is the kiss of death. The only way I would ever give -200 is if I were betting on a replay. lol
I've tried to be (to borrow a concept from the "sabermetricians") process oriented and not outcome oriented. I've established a set of steps and I try to repeat those steps every time and I don't evaluate the "process" until a large enough sample size has been created... It's worked so far, but who knows... I can tell I need a lot of work on the game theory (your -200 coment) implementation after the matchup analysis...
At least in my mind, it's not the same thing as a "system"... Maybe a system with refinement of the process built in...
EDIT
Holy Crap! I'm not nearly as self-impressed or naive as that sounded. Just drunk. I'm not a professional and am pretty much an idiot. I just put aside x dollars for each season and roll it over etc... But I have to stop me from out-smartering myself somehow...
-- Modified on 9/17/2013 7:49:01 PM
but truth be told, very few people here have a clue about gambling and are simply blowing smoke up their own asses when talking about it. You are one of the few at least on the right track. so give yourself kudos, drunk as you might be. lol
There are literally millions of people who bet on sports, there are also probably the same number of people who follow at least one sport religiously, now how many people do you think actually make a profit year in and year out? Sports knowledge and prognosticating ability is not enough to beat the spread, you have to let the odds works for you, and there are most likely hundreds of ways to do that, find a way that works for you and then try to refine, but don't be afraid to change your 'system" or your style if you get in a rut. The one thing about sports betting is that nothing stays the same, there are subtle rule changes every year, and they can effect your betting immensely, never get married to any one "system"
I dabble in baseball a little.. to me it's a very difficult sport to win money on as a found out today.
I'm more equipped to succeed at nfl betting because I've invested 14 years of studying every aspect of the game. The most important thing in my opinion is "TRENDS" For example the 49ers own the Packers.. so knowing that trend you would take the 49ers every time they play the packers.
Getting advice from other professional handicappers helps as well.
But I'm like you when it comes to baseball that's not really my strong suit.
The key of course in football or basketball is the spread, The key in baseball or hockey is getting value on the odds. The same way the spread will beat you over the long term if you simply bet every favorite, the odds are the biggest trap for the average gambler in hockey and baseball. You need to find value in your bets, and to do so in baseball especially is to follow those very trends you are talking about and don't be afraid to simply pass on a game if the odds are too long, the same as you would pass on the 49r's if the spread was 28.
Keep in mind that the linesmen, (the guys that set the odds) are every bit as aware of the trends as you are. The reason that I am more successful at sports gambling than people with much more sports knowledge than me is that I look for value in my bets and I am not afraid to simply pass on a bet if the odds give me no value.
I just can't get my head completely around this... I believe it but I don't understand all the ramifications.etc....
"Keep in mind that the linesmen, (the guys that set the odds) are every bit as aware of the trends as you are. The reason that I am more successful at sports gambling than people with much more sports knowledge than me is that I look for value in my bets and I am not afraid to simply pass on a bet if the odds give me no value. "
I agree and disagree, yeah you want good value, but for example I wouldn't pass on a chance to take Seattle at -700 over Jacksonville. $700 gets you back an easy 100.
But with baseball I agree with you 100% you definitely want good Value.. even a good pitcher like cliff Lee is going to lose once in a while so I'd never take his as a huge favorite.
PS sent you a pm let me know what you think