...talks to a guy slinging hash and another one selling widgets in order to determine consumer confidence. Why in the world would you doubt Jack's scientific method? Bwahahahahahahahah!!!
But the peeps are VERY optimistic about the Trump recovery, looking ahead.
This presidency will live or die based on the economy, and if this one measure is any indicator, Trump will be in good shape.
VERY good sign that the people can separate all the noise coming from the haters and focus on the things that they REALLY care about.
The Clown has not done anything to deserve any credit. It has all been scandals, conspiracies, lies and investigations.
Look, we had numerous lefties telling us for years here how "great" the economy was, pointing to this stat or that stat, and the first election post-Barry was to bounce his economic doppelgänger in Hillary.
And of course Trump has done things to get credit. He has loosened regulations, has brought a spirit of economic optimism, there are plans for a massive tax cut and at some point a large infrastructure bill awaits.
If he doesn't succeed, he is destined to be a one term prez but in a sign that is very encouraging, the "little guy" for now at least, seems to have trust that Trump will keep the above promises.
We'll see.
Most people don't feel that the economy has changed until it already has.
If you are looking to the future, it's probably best to look at Leading indicators. I use the bond market as my leading indicator. In fact the 10 year bond told everybody who knows how to read and interpret the bond market, that Trump's Health Care Plan would not pass.
I know it's hard for you to accept maybe giving Obama a little bit of credit, just a little. To me the market, especially the bond market is omnipotent.
And of course Trump has done things to get credit. He has loosened regulations, has brought a spirit of economic optimism, there are plans for a massive tax cut and at some point a large infrastructure bill awaits.
If he doesn't succeed, he is destined to be a one term prez but in a sign that is very encouraging, the "little guy" for now at least, seems to have trust that Trump will keep the above promises.
We'll see.
McJobs? Stagnant wages? A HC law that gave incentive to hire fewer workers? Thousands of more regulations? 10 trillion in new debt? Incredibly anemic growth? Puh-lease.
If you can give me a list of pro-growth policies that Obama put in place, I would love to hear it.
If you are like me and speaking to other small business owners on an almost daily basis, then you damn well know there is a feeling of optimism out there not seen in decades.
Now optimism doesn't always predict future results, but I would much rather have the environment we have now then the situation we would have had with Hillary. Is there really any serious debate about that Croix, amongst business owners?
Finally, are you really telling me the optimism as shown in all the consumer confidence numbers recently are NOT a reflection of the election in November?
Come on. You are smarter than that.
All I said was Consumer Confidence is a lagging indicator. I did not say it wasn't an important indicator, but it is an indicator of how people feel today, as well as the past few months, hence my trite little comment on giving Obama some credit as this indicator builds over time. Maybe I should have attached an emoji.
I personally don't use consumer confidence, as it's too much of a rear view mirror for me. Hence my comment on the bond market. The bond market predicted the health care bill would not pass, and as result hospital stocks were rising in value. Makes perfect sense. Yes there is unbridled enthusiasm in the corporate world, assuming they pass a corporate tax rate reduction, and reduce the number of unnecessary regulations. The stock market reflects those potential changes, but they may not happen as fast, or as to the level companies expect. And what would happen with the stock market?
If you can give me a list of pro-growth policies that Obama put in place, I would love to hear it.
If you are like me and speaking to other small business owners on an almost daily basis, then you damn well know there is a feeling of optimism out there not seen in decades.
Now optimism doesn't always predict future results, but I would much rather have the environment we have now then the situation we would have had with Hillary. Is there really any serious debate about that Croix, amongst business owners?
Finally, are you really telling me the optimism as shown in all the consumer confidence numbers recently are NOT a reflection of the election in November?
Come on. You are smarter than that.
And of course I agree, should expectations not be met, the markets will crash. No doubt in my mind.
There is proly an "irrational exuberance" going on now, and a pull back is overdue, so the air would come out and we would be looking at very bearish conditions if there was no tax cut or infrastructure law passed.
Ocare was one thing, and while certainly not good for Trump, and it clearly was a major set back, losing that battle wasn't cataclysmic for him.
The same thing can NOT be said about tax cuts. It would spell doom for both camps if he and the R's botch this one.
And no need for the emojis. I get enough of them from my hooker pals. lol
...talks to a guy slinging hash and another one selling widgets in order to determine consumer confidence. Why in the world would you doubt Jack's scientific method? Bwahahahahahahahah!!!
The states with highest per capita income and spending voted against the Clown! The welfare states voted for the Clown.
Ok...but he still won. Isn't that what the election is all about?
Trump ran on a platform of being for the people who's voices were never heard, He ran on a platform to Make American Great Again.
The richest per capita states wanted Hillary simply because she was going to continue with the rich keep getting richer platform.....it failed, deal with it.
You should be happy, Your voice will be heard now, ignored by most just like here but heard. You think The Tribal king and queen would have stopped to listen to your concerns?
So tell us all anowflake, what did Obama do that was so spectacular?
1. Had pow wow with BLM and NAACP........fucking racist.
2. Told all you snowflakes that Hillary was the greatest.......epic failure
3. Unemployment up from 7.3% to 9.1%
4. National Debt up from $10.6 trillion to $14.3 trillion,,,,spend spend spend
5. Obama Care was supposed to be affordable.....up 125% in Arizona
6. Veterans Admin.....can't get treated even after serving the country
7. Bengazi.......yep, his cabinet got 4 Americans killed
8. IRS....targeting certain groups
9. Paid to get an American deserter back for $5 million and 5 terrorists.
10. Chelsey Manning......commutes sentence of a traitor.
11. Commuted more sentences than all the other presidents.
I clearly see people doing better and spending money again in my business. I see people taking vacations again that couldn't. People are more confident with spending money.
the dems/libs who do not recognize reality probably will have TDS for at least 8 yrs...nothing but fake news come out of their mouth.....
translate to good time for Main St.
Sure, the stock market is up! Never ever thought I'd say this but "thanx Donald!" People and companies were/still-are all excited about tax cuts. However, whatever tax cuts actually happen will be the square root of what Trump's promised....and then the market will say "oh shit, WTF happened?"
And Trump's high schoolish proclamations of "trade war w/China etc." scares the shit outta me.
I have my sell orders queued.
There's clearly a direct correlation between Trump's election and the record highs. But the run-up was premised on tax cuts and infrastructure spending that now may not happen in the wake of his health care disaster. If they don't come to pass the market will tank.
The stock market is over valued. Correction/crash could happen any day now. The deep state is not ready to bring it down yet. They are afraid federal reserve will be the blame. the economy is weaker than most people realize.
Here are some factors
1. Retail stores closing massive layoffs.
2. Used car prices are down 7%
3. New cars sitting on auto lots longer.
4.real estate bubbles are starting to pop in various parts of us. Florida California north east.
5. Gdp is down. Revised numbers are lower.
But then I read his reasons. Being too lazy to actually check all his assertions, here are a few thoughts:
1) If retail stores are closing it doesn't mean consumer sales are lagging. Just that bricks and mortar are losing to Amazon, et. al.
2) If used car prices are down it may mean it's because supply is up because people are spending more money on NEW cars. Did you notice Ford just announced a multi-billion dollar expansion of its factories? They are going to make smaller numbers of their compact (low profit margin) cars and more SUVs and light trucks with higher margins.
3) If new cars are sitting on lots longer it may be the time of year. Are you citing quarter to quarter figures or year over year? Only the latter are meaningful.
4) If there are real estate bubbles popping how come the Case-Shiller index of home prices hit a 31-month high in January?
5) The GDP in Feb. was NOT down. The rate of increase was down but there was an increase.
You really are clueless, aren't you, Dave?
From real news
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/us-heading-for-recession-after-2-years-of-unsustainable-growth-economist-says.html
From fake or alternative news.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-22/sound-bottom-falling-out-auto-industry
So I can do exactly the opposite. It will be a sure thing.
Don't try to meet up with Dave.......that will protect your future and keep you out of jail thus securing more finances for the hobby.
He's tight with 5-0.
Every person has different time frames and objectives. No one plan fits all for investments. It also depends on peoples asset allocation and how many chips they have on the table.
But your sheer idiocy transcends all "time frames and objectives." You are in LaLa Land and beyond clueless. i am quite sure you have no assets or chips on the table,
and it's the gospel truth. You really can't be that stupid. But then again, for every winner there is a loser. Everyday on CNBC there are multiple articles about the pending doom and gloom of the market, and equal number about the market going higher. If there is no consensus with so-called experts, then picking one article out of a thousand is a really pathetic way to make investing decisions.
And would everybody quit talking about the God Damn DOW. While the DOW was down, except for today, the NASDAQ broke even during the DOW's 8 day decline.
-- Modified on 3/28/2017 5:22:56 PM
Better indexes took at are S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and Russell 2000.
Gallup Says Confidence In The Economy "Tumbled". Interesting article talks about differences between the conference board consumer confidence number and Gallup consumer confidence numbers.
He really CAN be that stupid.
You know, the hypothetical, if a meteor is heading our way to destroy the planet, would you really keep all your money in savings or the stock market, or take it out and blow it? Or, if we find ourselves in the middle of a nuclear attack, all the coworkers, who are attracted to one another, quickly grinding one out before the bombs hit! 
You quoted one poll, so here's another. Yes! Gallup again. Read it and weep. And, yes, some of the internal numbers are not so bad, but 37% is a record low going all the way back to the first Gallup poll in '53.
He is right side up.
And leave it to you to piss on a thread showing optimism. LOL
Yes, I think you are one of the libs that Dev was referring to. 
Just in Trump's presidency weakens stock markets
Dow posts longest losing streak since 2011 as 'Trump trade' falters - as it happened
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/mar/27/shares-slide-pound-rallies-us-dollar-trump-healthcare-failure-rattles-markets-business-live
This presidency will live or die based on the economy, and if this one measure is any indicator, Trump will be in good shape.
VERY good sign that the people can separate all the noise coming from the haters and focus on the things that they REALLY care about.
You can't possibly be this stupid, can you?
The stock market has been on a tear ever since Trump was elected.
Here is a chart of the Dow for the last twelve months, just look at the run for the past four months and then try to tell me that Trump is "weakening stock markets" That is one of the dumbest things said here in months and that's saying something
Oh yeah, it was Obama's fault?
The stock market has been on a tear ever since Trump was elected.
Here is a chart of the Dow for the last twelve months, just look at the run for the past four months and then try to tell me that Trump is "weakening stock markets" That is one of the dumbest things said here in months and that's saying something
Not when we are only a few hundred points off of the record highs set only a couple of weeks ago.
8 losing days followed 12 winning days, the longest run since 1987.
The stock market very might "might" tank, but to say it's tanking now is something not even Chicken Little would claim,
Did you notice how they didn't continue to raise the rates until after thr election. Raising rates will slow down economy into recession. Recession brings on a bear market.
Small caps are already below 50 day moving average. Large caps could be next going under key moving averages 50 day and 200 day moving averages. Very possible we could see a death cross sell signal in a few months.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/feds-fischer-says-he-sees-two-more-rate-hikes-in-2017.html
Trump will be covered because he warned stock market has been in a bubble. He said fed raising interest rates will pop stock market bubble.
Rates are still at historic lows and haven't even pushed mortgage rates up yet. Higher rates have already lifted the banking sector. The real question is, why am I even talking to such a clueless dunce?
Did you notice the market was up 150 today?
There are all types of things going on and its the market. Here is an example. Lets see this week is when people get capital gains and income distributions for index funds. The market could have gone up for folks re-investing those distributions back into the index. You also have shorts covering, options expiring. You have banking stocks like Goldman Sacs coming back up because it has taken a beating (shorting) since last week. It is a major factor in the dow going up and down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qVMA2A0ESo
After the fed raises interest rates 2 times the stock market has a new cycle high, then the fed raises interest rates we have had a correction of 27% to 56% in the S&P 500. One time it did not happen that was before the below off of 1999 to 2000. That resulted in the 2000 to 2003 (long) bear market.
I remember that one for sure I had one aggressive growth fund (I bought and held) that peaked in March 2000. I heard the doomsters say get out (March 2000) and the death cross signal in Sept 2000. I did not believe it. I did not get the funds back up to March 2000 levels until 12 years later. For simple math purposes it was worth $56 at the peak of 2000. Went down as low as $23 in on 3/9/2009. Recently when I sold it was $101 on 3/3/2017.
So lets see the Fed raised interest these 2 times Dec 2015 and Dec 2016. We had a cycle high on 3/1/2017. Fed raises interest rates on 3/15/2017. Probability tells us that a big correction on average between 27% to 56% is coming.
Discussion starts at 02:13
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwwlD4LF0TA
More evidence fed is going to cause market crash/correction and possibly a recession. They hate trump and want to do everything to damage his legacy.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/29/feds-rosengren-wants-four-rate-hikes-this-year.html
Raising the interest rates to calm the markets down.
http://www.investors.com/news/economy/fed-policymaker-wants-4-rate-hikes-in-2017-markets-yawn/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKc9U5IiWkM
So signing unconstitutional executive orders banning Muslims from some countries raises DOW numbers ? Or for that matter claiming former President wiretapped his building in NYC? Or may be the Russian connection pushing the DOW up.
Stock market has been thriving ever since 2011 and the trend is continuing. The Clown has ZERO contribution to its growth.
I do think there will be a correction, but not quite yet.
There is ALWAYS going to be another correction. That's not unhealthy, its just the way the markets work.
What I find hilarious is watching Chicken Little flapping his little wings around, pretending to have a clue about what he is talking about. That is the problem in the internet age, everybody with a wi fi connection now things they are an expert, a "little bit of knowledge" in the wrong hands can be a very dangerous thing. lol
the collapse of our illegitimate president??
Trump ain't gonna get the square root of the tax cuts he "promised." These promises are what's triggered the market rise.
Some of them he has already kept, time will tell just how many of the rest of them he will be able to keep.
Whenever markets are at record highs, or just off of them, it can always be argued that the market is "overbought", but then the markets go out and set new records. Going back to HRC, if she had won we would arguing about how big the tax INCREASES were going to be, how much MORE we were going to spend on ACA, and debating about how to give away free college for everyone, not to mention we'd most likely be putting new regulations on businesses, not stripping them away.
One of Trumps major promises was to be a "business friendly" POTUS, he is keeping that promise in spades, that will keep the markets happy for a while, but I will concede he needs a major win, something on the order of tax reform to keep the markets spinning along. Public sentiment can be quite fickle and can turn on a dime, I might be keeping my finger hovering over the sell button, but I doubt I would be actually hitting it yet.
Not "Repeal & Replace!"
Not a fucking wall!
Not infrastructure spend!
Not new tax code!
Just what has he done?
Oops! No!
But he got tough with China by threatening the "one China policy" right? Wrong. When the Chinks got pissed, Donnie folded. Then they gave him a licensing deal.
But he's gonna make Europe and Japan pay us back for defending them! Well, not so much.
And if those nasty Iranian speed boats screw with our ships in the Persian Gulf he's gonna blow them away, right? Well they did and Donnie ignored it.
I could go on.
Now, all politicians lie. But none of them lie nearly so much as our Donnie.
Yes the market can rallies like today with even higher increases. The trend is still down. We could go back below 50 day moving average like we did yesterday. Remember in 2000 consumer confidence hit a all time high. 2 months later stock market bubble popped.
Also, look at the other averages. The Dow does not tell the whole story.
That said, I do expect a correction and am partly through a retrenchment that over the coming months will see my portfolio only at 25% in stocks. I do hope you are OK with that. I might find it hard to sleep tonight if you were not.
Trump says he can get GDP growth of 4-5 even 6%. He's just makin shit up outta nuthin.
News flash: it ain't gonna fucking happen and here's why:
"The work force is only growing at 0.5 percent and productivity's at 1 percent so it can't reach these 3-4 percent growth targets. If unemployment is, unfortunately, about as low as it's going to go, you can't pick this up," he told CNBC Tuesday.
That's from this link that Dave Mogal posted:
There ain't no fucking magic that Trump or ANYONE has. We're at near full employment although too many jobs are low-paying: sad. I don't have a PhD in Economics from Stanford, but, seems to me, there ain't no real "fix" to this. In a perfect world, we would replace these low-paying jobs with higher paying jobs (somehow) - but how?
Looks to me - and more importantly, virtually every economist etc., we're gonna be in this 1-2% growth for the foreseeable future