The GOP establishment is now quietly acknowledging Trump's delegate count threshold is less than 1237. If Trump arrives in Cleveland 50-100 delegates shy of 1237, the party establishment will have no choice but to hand him the nomination, GOP delegate "rules" be damned. Cruz (and Kascich's) only hope now is to actually steal the nomination from the man who has the greatest delegate and vote count at the convention. While one can argue that "this is all part of the rules" it's also how the Republican Party, if it occurs, will destroy themselves just as the Whigs did.
The magic number of delegates for Trump to clinch the nomination on the first ballot, likely to be his best and perhaps only chance to do so, remains 1,237. But there are now whispers that the real number of delegates Trump must win by June 7, when the final contests take place, may be lower.
When the convention opens in Cleveland in mid-July, roughly 200 delegates will arrive as free agents, unbound by the results of primaries or caucuses in their states. Trump’s campaign is confident they can win as many of them as they must in order to get to 1,237 on the first ballot.
“Trump has to get to 1,237, but there’s a lot of talk about, ‘What is the real number?’” said another RNC member. “Whatever half the uncommitted number is, that’s probably a reasonable number.” “I think a lot of people think if he gets within 50-100 [of 1,237], he’ll be able to carry it,” said Steve House, the Colorado GOP chairman, who is himself an unbound delegate and is already being courted by the Trump and Cruz campaigns.
-- Modified on 4/20/2016 12:57:49 PM
... one can only hope he will shut the fuck up once he's been eliminated.
Last add - I am appalled at the number of ignorant Chassidic Jews in Brooklyn who gave Cruz 57% of the Jewish vote in Boro Park. Never expected them to buy into his fraudulent folderol:
The very same system millions upon millions of people would rather blow up completely.
"Screwing" Donald Trump out of the nomination when he leads by millions of votes would do nothing but to completely alienate the Republican voters who already feel screwed by the GOP in 2014. Unless a house falls on Hillary's head (still a possibility) it's still her election to lose, but the GOP elite are starting to realize that an absolute disregard of the popular vote carries consequences much more severe than sucking it up, listening to the will of the voters and getting behind Trump whether they like it or not.
Why does Donald the Douche Bag deserve to have rules changed for HIM? Who died and left him God? LOL
It isn't "screwing" ANYONE if the rules are followed. You want the rules changed? Change them for 2020. The train left the station for 2016. Decades ago.
If Trump acted with one iota of decency and pretended to be presidential, he wouldn't be in this fix that HE created.
And you also may not know your history so let me let you in on something. 10 times the R's went to a contested convention. In 7 of those 10, the one with the most delegates LOST the nomination.
So there you have it. Rules AND precedence.
And we should throw all that down the drain for an absolute idiot and asshole? lol
I think not.
......the GOP establishment's only options are to either have 'em crushed by squeezing or cut off with a jagged edged knife. Both options will hurt! The ball, no pun intended, is in their court...lol
It isn't "screwing" ANYONE if the rules are followed. You want the rules changed? Change them for 2020. The train left the station for 2016. Decades ago.
If Trump acted with one iota of decency and pretended to be presidential, he wouldn't be in this fix that HE created.
And you also may not know your history so let me let you in on something. 10 times the R's went to a contested convention. In 7 of those 10, the one with the most delegates LOST the nomination.
So there you have it. Rules AND precedence.
And we should throw all that down the drain for an absolute idiot and asshole? lol
I think not.
fishhook analogy! 
Trump could have flown out to both Colorado and Wyoming and pandered to the delegates (not the people mind you, but the delegates) in the hopes of persuading a couple of them to switch from Cruz to him, OR he could have done what he did and stayed at home in the hopes of delivering a knock out blow to Cruz by winning overwhelming with the people?
Cruz knows how to "play the game" but that is not going to endear him to the people who are pissed at the people who created the rules of the game and have been running the game for decades. Trump has never been running to win the hearts and wallets of the GOP elite, he has been running to get every one angry at Washington on his side.
If Trump can show how well he does with the people and how Cruz can only do well by manipulating the system there is no way they can deny Trump the nomination if he comes close, the backlash from the millions of Trump supporters will simply be too great to withstand.
Some people have called it "whining" I think it was a great strategy that appears to be working.
More like reading 'the riot act.' And, I believe the Republican establishment reads it the same.
There is ZERO chance the establishment will throw Trump to the wolves and letting him get destroyed in the GE. None. Zero. Zilch.
The polling at the time of the R convention, if Trump is short the 1237, will be HUUUUUUGE!
If at that time, it still shows Hills crushing Trump, no way they will nominate him.
I'll take Trump at even money, you take the rest of the field. Name your stakes, or "steaks" if you prefer. Nothing tastes better when eating crow to have a nice steak on the side. lmao
-- Modified on 4/20/2016 2:07:22 PM
.....of winning during the G.E, with a fractured GOP? Goodluck with that line of thinking. Get over it already, some of you are still stuck in the denial phase of grief. I expect Trump to win the next primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Deleware and be well on his way to securing the 1237 delegates necessary to win the nomination. Trump keeps talking about a "rigged" nominating process by the "establishment" which makes his supporters even madder than they are already.
I HAVE said, Kasich and possibly Cruz as VP would give the R's a decent shot at winning.
Trump guarantees a Dem prez. Kasich does not.
And nothing rigged about the system. Trump took 60% of the vote in NY and won 97% of the delegates.
Was that "rigged" in his favor? Puh-lease!
Cruz is praised for "working the system" that's his only chance. Trump gets vilified for claiming it should be the voters who pick the nominee. So far it looks like Trumps strategy is working.
Just why should Trump play by someone else's rules, not when the electorate is so fucking pissed at the rules makers as they are this election cycle. You guys think that Trump should go quietly into the night, happy that he got millions more votes but didn't get the nomination. I suppose that's the same mentality that says we should just allow China to continue to manipulate their currency and not fight back because that is the way it's always been.
NOBODY forced him to. NOBODY held a gun to his head.
He signed off on them, he fucked up his campaign by being an idiot in many key instances and blew his shot at the presidency and NOW he wants different rules???
Unless you dont think he should be a man of his word as well???
Yep! Trump is the fishhook in the GOP's rump. It's going to hurt no matter which way you choose to get it out. If you push it in, it's going to hurt like hell. If you try to pull it out, it's going to hurt like hell, and you're going to cause a lost of damage! Leaving it in is none too pleasant either!
So even if Trump has 1,2000 delegates by 6/7 , 37 short of the majority, then it has to go to a 2nd ballot or more.
You guys are under the misapprehension that the 2 political parties work as strict democracies.
Uh-uh. They're private organizations in a country that is a REPRESENTATIVE Democracy. Big difference.
The sooner some realize that in here, the better & will be spared bitter disappointment.
However, if Trump gets 1,237, all bets are off.
There are a couple of hundred uncommitted delegates. If Trump comes in with 1,200 pledged delegates all he has to do is get 37 of the uncommitted delegates to go his way and he is in.
For a political junkie, you really are rather slow on the draw sometimes.
That is what you are missing. DO you realize who these people are? They are the die hards of the die hards of the establishment.
And Trump has given them REASON to hate him.
I believe Trump can win on the first ballot as long as he is well over 1,100.
The betting window is open. Don't let fear or common sense hold you back. lol
To many, the delegates are corrupt, bought & sold by the GOP establishment, so that may not happen.
Speaking of " rather slow on the draw"------
For a political junkie, you really are rather slow on the draw sometimes.
I pointed out (well actually the article pointed this out and I agreed) that is not as SURE as people like you seem to think it is.
Just admit you got it wrong. Don't be like the other libs who will parse words until the thread runs off the page rather than admit they simply didn't take all possibilities into account.
Or are you going to insist that if Trump has 1236 delegates coming into the convention, there is a 100% it goes to a second ballot? No one is that fucking dumb, are they?
No, I'll concede that if Trump is within aprox. 10 delegates, he gets the nomination, the corrupt powers that be wouldn't be THAT obvious.
More than 10 then it's a jump ball, something the "slow on the draw types" might agree with me on.
Just admit you got it wrong. Don't be like the other libs who will parse words until the thread runs off the page rather than admit they simply didn't take all possibilities into account.
Or are you going to insist that if Trump has 1236 delegates coming into the convention, there is a 100% it goes to a second ballot? No one is that fucking dumb, are they?
I'm not 100% sure but I suspect trump will need some of them, 2 - 3 - 10 - 20 - 30 who knows.
Now let's see how good of a negotiator he really is.
He says he makes all these deals
Let's see how good of a deal he can make for his own nomination.
One thing for sure, IMO, he needs to stop the whining about how corrupt and unfair the system is
and make the deals, because those who he needs to deal with do not want to hear it.
then when in office do something to change the system
Thank you
2016 = 28