I think Hillary wins close or Bernie wins by a wide margin as a rebuke to her.
I think Trump wins, Cruz close second, Carson gets surprising support. I think Bush should be done, but won't quit, he's loving the lush lifestyle on the campaign trail. Iowa is a weird one, voters their are a weird bunchHere's my gut instinct prediction, based on nothing but my gut instincts:
For the GOP:
Trump wins
Major backlash against Cruz mailer gives Rubio 2nd place.
Cruz drops to third, well ahead of the prospective Cabinet member wanna be's... with Rand Paul making a surprising jump to sixth behind Christie and Jeb.
The rest are irrelevant.
For the DEM:
Sanders does much better than anyone expects, forcing HRC more to the left than she wants.
But it is still Hillary's to lose. It is difficult to imagine Bill Clinton's near 70% approval rating not being a factor come crunch time.
-- Modified on 1/31/2016 7:23:00 PM
Cruz wins Iowa, Trumps comes in a close second and Rubio comes in third. For the Democrats, Clinton wins Iowa and Bernie comes in a very close second.
For the GOP:
Trump wins
Major backlash against Cruz mailer gives Rubio 2nd place.
Cruz drops to third, well ahead of the prospective Cabinet member wanna be's... with Rand Paul making a surprising jump to sixth behind Christie and Jeb.
The rest are irrelevant.
For the DEM:
Sanders does much better than anyone expects, forcing HRC more to the left than she wants.
But it is still Hillary's to lose. It is difficult to imagine Bill Clinton's near 70% approval rating not being a factor come crunch time.
-- Modified on 1/31/2016 7:23:00 PM
Cruz still has a lot of support for the "true conservatives" those people both social and fiscal conservative also known as Bible Thumpers. Trump has made some inroads with them partly thanks to Huckabee and Santorum who must see the writing on the wall and leant Trump as much support during the night of the last debate as two people still in the race could possibly do.
I do agree that Bernie will keep things a LOT closer than Hillary ever expected and will continue to pull her further and further to the left until she reaches the point of no return, killing her in the GE if she makes it that far.
I also agree that Rand Paul is going to remain relevant, at least for a little while longer.
... now add Rubio's 30 minute local tv spot and personal appearances exploiting that gaffe and that's where my gut instincts say Cruz is going to lose at least some of the undecided.
TwoMints is correct when he says they are a weird bunch in Iowa. Good people, salt of the earth, deep fried butter logs and all... but their political caucus system is an utter Twilight Zone experience in today's world, and is given far too much weight in the overall campaign process
I guess it will show just how far a candidate will go to pander to the voters. Cruz trying to walk the fence where it comes to ethanol is a great example. He'd be shot in Texas for his statements regarding ethanol while in Iowa and he is trying his best not to say anything he can't walk back later in the campaign, but it's plainly obvious he will say and do anything to get elected, including lying when he feels it's necessary.
I want to like Cruz, I admire a man who can tell McConnell to FUCK OFF, but he loses me just a bit more with each passing day as does the Bible thumping Rubio. I think Carson may get a lot of possible Cruz supporters as well, and he is polling surprisingly well of late and it appears he will stay relevant to the race when it wasn't long ago when it looked like he was going to dry up and blow away.
Wish they just had regional primaries, just 4 total with 12 states partispating each 2 weeks apart.
I'd exclude Iowa and Alaska.....they're both too wacky states.
I think Hillary wins close or Bernie wins by a wide margin as a rebuke to her.
I think Trump wins, Cruz close second, Carson gets surprising support. I think Bush should be done, but won't quit, he's loving the lush lifestyle on the campaign trail.
Iowa is a weird one, voters their are a weird bunch
Iowa is a weird one, voters their are a weird bunch
I've said, more than once, I'm no gambling man> So GaG, quit trying to tempt me! 
On the Republican side, I pick Trump to win, though I still think he really doesn't want to win the presidency. I think Cruz has a lock on the conservatives, though his false flyer episode will hurt him, and give Rubio a stronger 3rd place showing, and more momentum going into New Hampshire. I can't say what Carson will do, since it boggles my mind that he's even considered to be presidential material by some. There may be one or two of the bottom tier that drop out, but Paul, Christie and Jeb will remain until after New Hampshire. Jeb has nothing better to do. And, Christie is afraid to return to New Jersey.
On, the Democrat's side, Hillary pulls it out by the skin of her teeth, though it really doesn't matter. Once she hits South Carolina, the Mason-Dixon firewall will be there for her benefit. If she does win, it will be interesting to see how that changes the polls in New Hampshire. Probably not that much, but it may make for a closer race, with Sanders still winning. If the Sander's balloon gets punctured, it may be surprising to witness a rapid descent into non-relevance.
