Politics and Religion

It's clear to everyone, Trump will NOT be the Republican nominee.....teeth_smile
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........no one here is denying that fact. If, indeed, Fox News marching orders were to discredit Trump and undermine his momentum, it sure looks like that the plan backfired. Not only do the polls show it, but if I were Trump, it would only further cement my resolve to win. If there ever was a "hey, I'm doing this just to see what kind of havoc I can wreak, and then pull out" thought in his head, it's probably vanished. It's now very likely Trump will run as an independent. Ever hear the saying, never poke at a bear in an unlocked cage.  

 

 
 
Posted By: JackDunphy
I have said Trump has zero chance. I was wrong.  
   
 Nate Silver from 538 has put the likelihood at 2%. LOL  
   
 (My protege will fill you in on Nates credentials. The brief description is he is DAMN good. Lol)  
   
 Feel free to read the whole thing but make sure you look at just how unpopular Trump,is with Republicans. That is a hot linked under "Stage 4" which will take you to a separate article by Silver.  
   
 The favorable/unfavorable break down places Trump as the 13th most favorable R candidate. Not so great, huh? But it's actually worse than just that. He has the highest percentage of people who chose favorable or unfavorable and not "unsure".  
   
 Why is that important? More than any other candidate, people have already made up their mind about him and that is NOT a good thing for his camdidacy.  
   
 He just doesn't have any real upside when the field gets narrowed (Silver uses the term "winnowed") down to just a few. While he is in fist place now, many people mistakenly believe that he will proly get an equal amount of the vote of people leaving the race voters. But, at this point at least, that is wildly incorrect.  
   
 For example, if Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum leave, does anyone think Trump would pick up any of their voters? The people who like Trump, love him. The people that don't, can't fkin stand him. He MAY pick up a higher share of Cruz's voters but that would be it and that isn't even a given.  
   
 In other words, people who like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker etc will most likely consider the other 3 to vote for if their dude bails out. But will they consider Trump? Ummmm....no, not to any real  or meaningful degree.  
   
 In essence, his problem is he is at the very top of people's lists or he is virtually off their list totally. No middle ground. One or the other. That is lethal for anyone who really wants to be the nominee.  
   
 So the polls Mari is counting on to give us any "real" news in the coming days will be meaningless UNLESS there is this big shift in his disapproval to the downside.  
   
 Now, after repeatedly flaming Megyn Kelly, and now in a war of words with Carly Fiorina, how likely do you think it is that people will think more of him?  
   
 He MAY stay the same with his loyal voters digging in against all the attacks, but he can't afford to stay the same as reasons above point out.

-- Modified on 8/9/2015 11:30:44 PM

his can't be good news for the GOP.......lol

An NBC News poll taken after the Republican debate revealed some bad news for Fox News. All of their favorite establishment candidates lost support while the lunatic fringe led by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson rose to the top three positions.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/09/trump-leads-gop-outsiders-surge-in-first-post-debate-poll/

Post-Debate Poll (NBC)  
Trump 23%  
Cruz 13%  
Carson 11%
Fiorina 8%  
Rubio 8%  
Bush 7%  
Walker 7

where you self select to be one of the Monkey survey completers in order to qualify to be selected for this poll

        While Monkey claims they cook the books to make the 3551 poll responders representative, I find that hard to believe. The responders are not even necessarily Republicans. Monkey even admits they have no idea of he margin of error. In short, unless your life is so boring that you spend all day on the computer filling out polls or doing on line posting (sounds kinda like us doesn't it) your voice is not even heard here.

Apparently, the “Student of Polls” is snoozing or he would tell us why this poll is such a farce.

 
:The NBC News Online Survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey August 7-8, 2015 among a
national sample of 3,551 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were
selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each
day.
Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. YEAH RIGHT  
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement
error. Polls conducted in one day may include additional error due to the limited time period that
panelists have to respond to and complete the survey.

I haven't looked into that poll at all, but you being my best student, I will trust your assessment of it.

There is a much bigger point, however. Until I see him expanding his hysterical, stepford base, and bring down his dissaproval numbers greatly, a poll showing him in the lead is utterly meaningless.

This is the rough equivalent of Usain Bolt leading after 100 yards....in a marathon with the worlds best marathoners in the race.

Obamacare polls, which truly are utterly meaningless. The Republican national candidate polls – or at least the 5 or 6 certified by Fox and CNN – are more meaningful than ever because they determine whether the candidate gets to participate in the prime time poll or the JV poll.

        CNN is also using an averaging of the specified polls to determine who makes its prime time debate. The Monkey poll, of course, is not one of the accepted polls so it is meaningless. But the Pew, Gallup, NY Times Wash Post, and time polls will make or break some of these candidates.

       Think of what it would cost on TV to get your name and message in front of 24 million viewers.  The top ten got that airtime for free. They will also get free airtime on Sept 16 on CNN. Plus high poll scores translate into money from contributors. Who is going to give money to Rick Perry now with probably less than 2% in the next poll?

So the correct polls really do matter.

 

Posted By: JackDunphy
I haven't looked into that poll at all, but you being my best student, I will trust your assessment of it.  
   
 There is a much bigger point, however. Until I see him expanding his hysterical, stepford base, and bring down his dissaproval numbers greatly, a poll showing him in the lead is utterly meaningless.  
   
 This is the rough equivalent of Usain Bolt leading after 100 yards....in a marathon with the worlds best marathoners in the race.

Go back and read my post counselor.  

I clearly wasn't speaking about the polling "making or breaking some of these candidates" with my "utterly meaningless" comment.  

I was very clearly referring to Trump ONLY in the context I was speaking of, so no need to twist my words or take them out of that specific context.

Getting on the debate stage is of course important. The polls determine that. Where have I, or anyone for that matter, argued that point? But that doesn't affect Trump as it is a given he will clear that low bar, barring some big scandal we don't yet know about.

The only polls that will matter for Trump are the ones that show his expanding voter base and the significant lowering of his dissaproval, over an extended period of time and across the polling spectrum

only “in the context you were speaking of”

      The only problem with that is the definition of “utterly.”  The Oxford Dictionaries define this adverb  as “completely and without qualification.”  You actually were qualifying what you meant by meaningless – the polls are meaningless only in your specific context.

 
That’s okay – you never said you were the Student of Word Usage. LO

Trump Wins Drudge Report post Debate Poll.

Billionaire Donald Trump is the winner of the Drudge Report Poll taken following the first Republican presidential debate.  

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place in the online poll of more than 190,000 Drudge Report visitors, which was taken directly following the debate on Thursday night. The poll only included the candidates who participated in the Fox News debate with the top 10 candidates.  

Here is a breakdown of the poll results:
Donald Trump: 38 percent
Ted Cruz: 15.5 percent
Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson: 10.2 percent
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 9.7 percent
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 9.3 percent
Ohio Gov. John Kasich: 4.9 percent
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 4.5 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 3.5 percent
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 2.5 percent
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie: 1.4 percent

http://www.drudgereport.com/now.ht

But yes, your guess is correct.

My student would have given you the same answer but he is out getting liquored up and basking in the glow of ripping your first poll to shreds. LOL

And yes, I am very proud of him. :D

would you vote for like the Monkey poll.  And the 5 o'clock debaters were not even included.

       Be patient Honda, Pew or Gallup will come out with a real poll next week and then we will know. But as to both polls, didn't Carson coming in third tip you off that something was wrong? No way he places third in a real poll.

And even if you want to make the case that Fox really wants Trump out, he is no more electable today than he was the day before the debate, and in fact, I would say even less so. Much less so.

Ann Coulter, one of his biggest butt munches, criticized him after the debate for his stupidity in going after Megyn Kelly into the wee hours of the morning on Twitter.  Some 31 tweets from  3 am to 5 am. lol

I know you are enjoying the circus, as I am too, but like every circus, the tent comes down. His tent is down and packed away. Only about 10% of the public isn't aware of it yet and we have a ratings driven and dishonest media trying its best to make people believe Trump still has a chance.

"The fact that an aging hippy socialist with no prayer of becoming President (Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)16% can attract more than 10,000 people for a speech is as much an indictment of the entire political class as it is of Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Dem frontrunner."
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/09/trump-leads-gop-outsiders-surge-in-first-post-debate-poll/

 
  I thought it's about winning the most votes!

  Hillary and the entire GOP mega bus of candidates control the camera angles etc to make appear their stump speeches are before cheering crowds when in actuality they're in a 50'x50' room or a small town park gazebo. And we're repeatedly told by the mainstream media THEY are the VIABLE candidates.
Bernie Sanders is filling BIG venues attracting BIG enthusiastic crowds, and doing so on a very limited budget, armies of volunteers, and quite likely without paid actors or ambitious, aspiring parasites. But every time the mainstream media mentions Bernie they impugn him and his run.  

  It appears to me that the current system and media is as openly adversarial to Bernie(or any independent) as Fox was to Trump last Thursday evening. That does NOT speak well for our "system" or the health of our democracy.        

-- Modified on 8/9/2015 2:46:11 PM

I have said Trump has zero chance. I was wrong.

Nate Silver from 538 has put the likelihood at 2%. LOL

(My protege will fill you in on Nates credentials. The brief description is he is DAMN good. Lol)

Feel free to read the whole thing but make sure you look at just how unpopular Trump is with Republicans. There is another article by Silver that is hot linked under "Stage 4" which discusses this in depth.

The skinny is the favorable/unfavorable break down places Trump as the 13th most favorable R candidate. Not so great, huh? But it's actually worse than just that. He has the highest percentage of people who chose favorable or unfavorable and not "unsure".

Why is that important? More than any other candidate, people have already made up their mind about him and that is NOT a good thing for his candidacy.  

He just doesn't have any real upside when the field gets narrowed (Silver uses the term "winnowed") down to just a few.  

While he is in first place now, many people mistakenly believe/assume that he will proly get an equal amount of the vote of people leaving the race voters. But, at this point at least, that is wildly incorrect.

For example, if Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum leave, does anyone think Trump would pick up any of their voters? The people who like Trump, love him. The people that don't, can't fkin stand him. He MAY pick up a higher share of Cruz's voters but that would be it and that isn't even a given.  

In other words, people who like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker etc will most likely consider the other 3 to vote for if their dude bails out. But will they consider Trump? Ummmm....no, not to any meaningful degree.

In essence, his problem is he is at the very top of people's lists or he is virtually off their list totally. No middle ground. One or the other. That is lethal for anyone who really wants to be the nominee.

So the polls Mari is counting on to give us any "real" news in the coming days, will be meaningless UNLESS there is this big shift in his disapproval to the downside.

Now, after repeatedly flaming Megyn Kelly, and now in a war of words with Carly Fiorina,  both very well respected women, how likely do you think it is that people will think MORE of him?  

He MAY stay the same with his loyal voters digging in against all the attacks, but he can't afford to stay the same as reasons above point out.

He is toast. The media won't tell you until Trump quits and they will tell us then that they knew it all the time! I can just see it now. The "breaking news" graphic comes on CNN...with Wolf Blitzer saying....

"This just in....the inevitable happened and Donald Trump just tweeted that he is leaving the race."

Ah...the media. You gotta love them! Lol

-- Modified on 8/9/2015 11:44:02 PM

........no one here is denying that fact. If, indeed, Fox News marching orders were to discredit Trump and undermine his momentum, it sure looks like that the plan backfired. Not only do the polls show it, but if I were Trump, it would only further cement my resolve to win. If there ever was a "hey, I'm doing this just to see what kind of havoc I can wreak, and then pull out" thought in his head, it's probably vanished. It's now very likely Trump will run as an independent. Ever hear the saying, never poke at a bear in an unlocked cage.  

 

 
 

Posted By: JackDunphy
I have said Trump has zero chance. I was wrong.  
   
 Nate Silver from 538 has put the likelihood at 2%. LOL  
   
 (My protege will fill you in on Nates credentials. The brief description is he is DAMN good. Lol)  
   
 Feel free to read the whole thing but make sure you look at just how unpopular Trump,is with Republicans. That is a hot linked under "Stage 4" which will take you to a separate article by Silver.  
   
 The favorable/unfavorable break down places Trump as the 13th most favorable R candidate. Not so great, huh? But it's actually worse than just that. He has the highest percentage of people who chose favorable or unfavorable and not "unsure".  
   
 Why is that important? More than any other candidate, people have already made up their mind about him and that is NOT a good thing for his camdidacy.  
   
 He just doesn't have any real upside when the field gets narrowed (Silver uses the term "winnowed") down to just a few. While he is in fist place now, many people mistakenly believe that he will proly get an equal amount of the vote of people leaving the race voters. But, at this point at least, that is wildly incorrect.  
   
 For example, if Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum leave, does anyone think Trump would pick up any of their voters? The people who like Trump, love him. The people that don't, can't fkin stand him. He MAY pick up a higher share of Cruz's voters but that would be it and that isn't even a given.  
   
 In other words, people who like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker etc will most likely consider the other 3 to vote for if their dude bails out. But will they consider Trump? Ummmm....no, not to any real  or meaningful degree.  
   
 In essence, his problem is he is at the very top of people's lists or he is virtually off their list totally. No middle ground. One or the other. That is lethal for anyone who really wants to be the nominee.  
   
 So the polls Mari is counting on to give us any "real" news in the coming days will be meaningless UNLESS there is this big shift in his disapproval to the downside.  
   
 Now, after repeatedly flaming Megyn Kelly, and now in a war of words with Carly Fiorina, how likely do you think it is that people will think more of him?  
   
 He MAY stay the same with his loyal voters digging in against all the attacks, but he can't afford to stay the same as reasons above point out.

-- Modified on 8/9/2015 11:30:44 PM

Not long ago you were Never Trump, now you are basking in more wealth  than you imagined due to MAGA  President Trump policies.
   How does it feel to be on the winning team you honestly believed  would lose?  

  I love the Media, especially Fake news, without their publicity we wouldn't have won so easily .  :-D
 
 

Posted By: JackDunphy
Re: Honda, I need to apologize to you about the polling and Trump's chances.
I have said Trump has zero chance. I was wrong.  
   
 Nate Silver from 538 has put the likelihood at 2%. LOL  
   
 (My protege will fill you in on Nates credentials. The brief description is he is DAMN good. Lol)  
   
 Feel free to read the whole thing but make sure you look at just how unpopular Trump is with Republicans. There is another article by Silver that is hot linked under "Stage 4" which discusses this in depth.  
   
 The skinny is the favorable/unfavorable break down places Trump as the 13th most favorable R candidate. Not so great, huh? But it's actually worse than just that. He has the highest percentage of people who chose favorable or unfavorable and not "unsure".  
   
 Why is that important? More than any other candidate, people have already made up their mind about him and that is NOT a good thing for his candidacy.  
   
 He just doesn't have any real upside when the field gets narrowed (Silver uses the term "winnowed") down to just a few.  
   
 While he is in first place now, many people mistakenly believe/assume that he will proly get an equal amount of the vote of people leaving the race voters. But, at this point at least, that is wildly incorrect.  
   
 For example, if Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum leave, does anyone think Trump would pick up any of their voters? The people who like Trump, love him. The people that don't, can't fkin stand him. He MAY pick up a higher share of Cruz's voters but that would be it and that isn't even a given.  
   
 In other words, people who like Bush, Kasich, Rubio, Walker etc will most likely consider the other 3 to vote for if their dude bails out. But will they consider Trump? Ummmm....no, not to any meaningful degree.  
   
 In essence, his problem is he is at the very top of people's lists or he is virtually off their list totally. No middle ground. One or the other. That is lethal for anyone who really wants to be the nominee.  
   
 So the polls Mari is counting on to give us any "real" news in the coming days, will be meaningless UNLESS there is this big shift in his disapproval to the downside.  
   
 Now, after repeatedly flaming Megyn Kelly, and now in a war of words with Carly Fiorina,  both very well respected women, how likely do you think it is that people will think MORE of him?  
   
 He MAY stay the same with his loyal voters digging in against all the attacks, but he can't afford to stay the same as reasons above point out.  
   
 He is toast. The media won't tell you until Trump quits and they will tell us then that they knew it all the time! I can just see it now. The "breaking news" graphic comes on CNN...with Wolf Blitzer saying....  
   
 "This just in....the inevitable happened and Donald Trump just tweeted that he is leaving the race."  
   
 Ah...the media. You gotta love them! Lol

-- Modified on 8/9/2015 11:44:02 PM

bigguy30481 reads

It's the mind set of the GOP voter who really needs to have their heads examined with these polls.
I cannot see any of these choices winning November 2016.
This is just so funny to watch.

Posted By: HONDA
 
 This can't be good news for the GOP.......lol  
   
An NBC News poll taken after the Republican debate revealed some bad news for Fox News. All of their favorite establishment candidates lost support while the lunatic fringe led by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson rose to the top three positions.
   
 http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/09/trump-leads-gop-outsiders-surge-in-first-post-debate-poll/  
   
 Post-Debate Poll (NBC)  
 Trump 23%  
 Cruz 13%  
 Carson 11%  
 Fiorina 8%  
 Rubio 8%  
 Bush 7%  
 Walker 7%  
 
-- Modified on 8/9/2015 11:52:22 PM

In order to get the nomination, you have to be a crazed mean-spirited lunatic who's dumber than a box of rocks. And that sort of thing doesn't play well in the general election. It seems that the rest of the electorate has what-you-call-it....standards!

GaGambler450 reads

They were actually nominated to be "moderate" and as such be better equipped to win the GE. I think we all saw how well that worked out for the GOP.

The 2008 nomination process was quite strange. The McCain campaign needed to bring in the crazed mean-spirited lunatic wing of the Republican party to the fold, and that's why he picked Sarah Palin.  

Remember the GOP nomination process in 2012? How the entire party wanted ANY candidate BUT Romney? They would jump from one crazy to the next, until Romney's money squashed them all. The GOP base showing up to the debates were not happy with Romney at all.  

At this point, I have my doubts that a centrist Republican can get the nomination. I think it'll be nothing but getting crazy to the general election, which will fail horribly come November.

GaGambler370 reads

The McCain campaign did not NEED to bring in BSC Palin, they only thought they needed to, nor did Romney NEED to bring in Ryan, he only thought he did. Both moves failed, and while neither VP pick were the only blunders the two candidates made, hindsight proves they contributed to the losses suffered by each candidate.

and it wasn't Romney's money that "squashed" his GOP competitors, it was the fact that as a "moderate" he was considered the most electable.

Timbow535 reads

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810

Posted By: HONDA
 
 This can't be good news for the GOP.......lol  
   
An NBC News poll taken after the Republican debate revealed some bad news for Fox News. All of their favorite establishment candidates lost support while the lunatic fringe led by Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson rose to the top three positions.
   
 http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/09/trump-leads-gop-outsiders-surge-in-first-post-debate-poll/  
   
 Post-Debate Poll (NBC)  
 Trump 23%  
 Cruz 13%  
 Carson 11%  
 Fiorina 8%  
 Rubio 8%  
 Bush 7%  
 Walker 7%  
 

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