Politics and Religion

Sorry Jack, but I think you stepped in it this time
GaGambler 415 reads
posted

I remember busting all over Priapussy for posting what seemed like daily poll results about this far out in the last election cycle. Sorry Jack, but you're on your own here.

BUT I will admit that at this point in the '08 elections, Hillary looked unbeatable then too, as did Bush I at this point in the '92 elections. There are a thousand different things that can happen in the next 15 months, maybe it was just a slow news day?

JackDunphy1448 reads

She is trailing in VA, CO and Iowa to Bush, Walker & Rubio.

Now Quinnipiac does have a good rep and the numbers they used (approx. 1200  per state) are typically more than most state polls...BUT I just wonder if this is an outlier.

I haven't had the chance to review all the internals and they could have oversampled R's and yes, polling this far out doesn't mean much...BUT (part 2) her trustworthiness is all 3 states is in the 30's.

There was a national poll out last week showing Hills was at 39%.  

Again, I don't want to overreact to one poll or even two, but there has been a major slide of her numbers from just a few months ago, in general. I do think the Dems need to get someone up in the bullpen at least.

St C may get that Biden entrance after all.

Can she possibly blow the "coronation" twice

thisbud4u278 reads

You just cherry picked one poll and there are other polls (Public Policy) which has Hillary leading Bush.    All national polls has Hillary leading every neo con.     Rubio will never be the nominee for sure.    VA with a Democrat as Governor, rule out any Voter ID, Voter Restrictions, restricted early voting issues.    

With Jim Messina on Hillary's  team, the genius is already working on the strategy to put Hillary in the White House, just like he accomplished a titanic effort in putting President Obama for a second term.

I hope whoever is the neo con running against Hillary, he / she better have a concession speech ready and don't let caught up like the Mitt.

http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls/2016-general-election-matchups/

Never been right on anything. They also predicted Mitt will win. If you are looking for solace in Quinnipiac poll for Clinton to loose then follow the link and

...the news in the world, Fox trumpets a poll for an election that is more than 15 months away.  If Clinton had been leading the poll, would it have been Fox's lead story in the world?

GaGambler416 reads

I remember busting all over Priapussy for posting what seemed like daily poll results about this far out in the last election cycle. Sorry Jack, but you're on your own here.

BUT I will admit that at this point in the '08 elections, Hillary looked unbeatable then too, as did Bush I at this point in the '92 elections. There are a thousand different things that can happen in the next 15 months, maybe it was just a slow news day?

And thought I worded the OP in such a manner as to NOT put too much weight on it, BUT...

All recent polls over the last month or two have shown her honesty and trustworthy numbers have crashed. Forget the national polls, forget the state polls...she is consistently being shown as someone not believable, and THAT is significant.

She went from like 55% trustworthy to mid to upper 30's. That is a massive shift. And this is all with the R candidates taking shots at themselves and mostly Trump. In other words, they haven't even really pointed there full attention to Hills.

Her credibility has taken a huge hit with the emails, the server, her comments about being broke, etc and the polling is reflecting that.  

Is it the end of the world for her? Of course not. Is her camp worried? I can guarantee you they are.

GaGambler355 reads

and unlike her husband who nothing stuck to, it appears that Hillary does NOT have a Teflon coating. It's interesting to follow the betting odds though. Hillary is still the odds on favorite at -700, which means betting on her pays about as much as buying a CD.  

I actually believe the poll may be right, even though I am on record about how useless such early polls are, but in this case the polls reflect the very same feeling I have been getting about Hillary's vulnerability. I know in horse races people love to bet the "beaten favorite" but speaking strictly as a gambler, I think there is some value out there to bet on "anyone but Hillary" for the Democratic nod. Now, I don't recommend betting the house on this, but every other candidate is going off in double digits with the exception of Bernie Sanders who is second choice at +700. Biden is at 15-1, Warren at 40-1 and O'Malley is at 20-1. I might take a flyer on another long shot in the name of Jim Webb who is a hundred to one to win the Presidency and about 40-1 depending on the bookmaker to win the nomination.

By and large I don't see much real enthusiasm for Hillary and IMO she is one of those candidates where the more you see her the less you like her. Personally, despite all her baggage and credibility issues, I see her being a much more effective POTUS than what we have now, and I would much prefer Hillary over either Warren or Sanders, but if we could get a Dem that even I could vote for "without" holding my nose, I am holding out some slim hope that Jim Webb gains some momentum as Hillary's popularity wanes. Is that just wishful thinking? Yes I am sure it is a "lot" of wishful thinking but at those long odds I might put a "little bit" of money where my mouth is.

GaGambler305 reads

Especially if it looks like the GOP is going to maintain control of Congress. I don't really want either party running everything. I have no illusions that a "real" conservative in the White House combined with a GOP controlled Congress is going to accomplish anything important to me, with the possible exception of doing away with ObamaCare. What is a lot more likely is a bunch of anti abortion, anti gay marriage type legislation being at the top of their "to do" list.

-- Modified on 7/23/2015 7:09:45 AM

Amazing, we finally agree on something!  ;)

Oops! I may be jumping the gun. Perhaps there's republican you'd vote for over Bush or Webb.  ;)

thisbud4u293 reads

I remember him  the 9-9-9 guy who had a harem of his own and left in disgrace!    I like these GOP clowns.

I actually don't care. But I wish you luck. Let's see how far you can go. If you can go all the way.  
Then good for you. No, I'm not going to hate you. I'm not going to love you either. You're not related to me in any way.  
Neither is any other politician. Entertain us, do your job, run your campaign.  
Be very careful. Hire more security. You're are being more hated. Some people don't have a sense of humor and might see violence as a way of showing they're right. Yeah, like in religion.  
But whatever, win, lose or withdraw. It's your thing.  
WE on the other hand, always lose...  
and I'm used to it.  
 
Sincerely,  
 
Me  
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np3FXa4ORb

in the Colorado Governor race, where they had incumbent John Hickenlooper trailing by 10% late in the campaign...Hickenlooper won by over 3%...

PPP is truly one of the best pollsters out there...Not just in 2008 & 2012, but they were very accurate in the 2014 midterms to..

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