But I'll stick my nose in. I wish Ted Cruz would sit down and STFU, be the best senator he can be and stay out of the limelight. He won't listen to me though. I don't need a poll to tell me that he can't win a Presidential election, not now anyway. And BigP, don't ask me who I support right now, it's too damn early and I'm not tellin" LOL
57% want someone that would change MOST of the policies of the Obama administration.
59% want someone that has been in the public eye as a political leader for MANY years (rather than someone relatively new to the political scene.)
59% want someone that has A LOT of EXPERIENCE as an EXECUTIVE, either in government or business, with strong leadership skills.
It seems a growing number have seen the error of their previous choices. It will be interesting to see what kind of attention this poll gets in the media.
actually I just wanted to post a pic of thumper rabbit. That's what I think about when they post about thumpers here.
but back to the message. maybe not 44% want a thumper. Maybe 38% do, 4% want something else and 2% don't know or care
I’d be willing to bet money you could not do better than 25%. And I say that bc that is about as good as I could do. You would have to monitor his admin policies on a weekly basis for the last six years to have any chance of doing better than 50%.
Let’s go deeper. How many of his policies that you know generally could you actually describe if asked to do so on a cold call? Can you describe his Cuba policy? That was just last month. I have only a vague memory of what he changed. The best I could do would be to mumble a few words about relaxing the sanctions. What is Obama’s policy toward Norway? gay marriage? Hybrid vehicles? Keystone pipeline? Immigration? The Iran policy? I've been following that one and I'm lost as to what in the hell he is doing. Does he have a gun control policy? What is it? Bemoaning every mass shooting is not a policy. I would genuinely like to know.
The average recipient of these calls would probably be like me and you-…uh let me think for a minute but basically clueless except for the policies that affect us personally. The only way to conduct a poll like this with any reliability would be to give the recipients a list of the policies and THEN ask the question. They did not do that, did they?
Even worse, you incorrectly described the answer given by that 57%. They did not say that they “ want someone that would change MOST of the policies of the Obama administration,” did they?
They said that, for the two pairs of statements, their “perfect candidate” is “better described” as a candidate that would change most of the policies, even though neither statement was “exactly right.”
In short, we have a vague, confusing, ambiguous question asked of people who have no idea what “most” of the Obama admin policies are.
But I will acknowledge that your survey was not a total failure. 2% nailed it – they gave the correct answer – “no opinion.
But interesting, for the next election a majority of those polled desire executive experience and someone who has been around for a while perhaps regretting the resume of the current POTUS?
-- Modified on 3/22/2015 3:32:28 PM
except I believe the errors are in spelling, not grammar, so the chief checker get's busted as well
-- Modified on 3/22/2015 6:49:04 PM
I think we can fairly assume that the recipient knows the distinction between a governor candidate that has run a sate and a senator who has not. It is the policy question and response that I think we can toss in the waste can.
-- Modified on 3/22/2015 3:32:28 PM
It sounds more like you’re trying to convince yourself you voted for the right guy. Since you know so little about Obama’s policies it seems you think you would have been wiser maybe to have not voted. The importance of the “policies” question has nothing to do with any of your points. What matters is whatever policies a responder can think of at the moment, be it 1 or 100, a majority want them changed. BTW, this IS a good example of projection of your own inadequacies onto others.
Then there are the other two equally important questions I cited that also bode poorly for Obama or “someone” of his stature. Even though you ignored these two questions, I DO give you credit for not wasting time on the poll questions with responses that were of no surprise (i.e. religion), since the response was historically unchanged.
I do give you credit for a pretty good bit of diversion for trying to claim I misquoted the poll question when I didn’t quote them at all. My paraphrasing with the insertion of “someone” did not modify the quality of the poll interpretation. Of course the global message of this poll is it is clear a substantial number of Obama voters feel much differently 2 or 4 years later.
A second BTW, Should I even bring up the fact that to further your dismissive attitude you once again attempt to personalize your criticism by referring to this as “MY poll”? I would probably make a pretty good pollster but so as to not appear to plagiarize, CNN deserves the credit
then the poll question is even worse than I thought – that means no one is even answering the question. The poll did not ask – does the Obama admin have any policies that you would like to see changed? And btw have you EVER been in 100% agreement with a president on his policies? That question is not even worth asking.
So attempting to cover the flaws of the question by rewriting it is not going to work.
The question is flawed bc it presumes the average citizen would know “most of the admin policies” which is obviously untrue.
I claimed you “misquoted the poll question when I didn’t quote them at all?” Not even close.
I said “Even worse, you incorrectly described the answer given by that 57%.” Your description by paraphrase was simply inaccurate.
Yes I do understand that you did not take the poll and I am confident you understand what I meant by "your poll." I am sure you would ask a better question.
Finally, as I have posted on this Board several times, I voted for Mr. Romney, not Mr. Obama
As a policy intelligence poll, yes it's poorly worded but it's a political poll not a policy intelligence poll.
The "policies" question is no different than the more typical "right track/wrong track" question. You are making it into something way more complicated than it really is. This is a poll attempting to elicit a person's voting tendency for President in 2016 not how much people understand about Obama's policies. Even if a person only knew of a SINGLE Obama policy and now they've soured on that ONE policy, their voting tendency changed. Their vote still counts just as much as the best expert on Obama policy. My point is that given the roughly 60/40 split (wrong vs. right) it simply means a lot of Obama voters have changed their minds.
My paraphrase was perfectly accurate. The use of "someone" does not REPLACE the term "perfect candidate". If you concatenate the poll premise statement with any of the questions and you are left with the equivalent of the following:
"Imagine you could create the perfect candidate, would you want someone that would continue most of the policies of the Obama administration?
It's perfectly understandable and better grammar than repeating the word candidate in the same sentence. Only someone that ran out of information in their attempt to challenge would resort to becoming a grammar cop. But then this thread seems to not have a shortage of those.
I guess I don't read absolutely everything you post. I don't remember you ever stating it before today and I take you at your word, but since we're all getting anally retentive over minutia (OK, that might be a tad strong) I made a simple but not all inclusive search.
http://www.theeroticreview.com/discussion_boards/searchMessagesResults.asp?FromPost=1&MessageID=&BoardID=39&SortBy=DateCreated+desc&Search=voted+for+Romney&SearchType=1&Author=marikod&DayFrom=9999&DayTo=0
-- Modified on 3/23/2015 1:28:15 AM
Fair enough I would not quarrel with your point as you have now expressed
It- I agree that a lot of Obama voters have changed their minds and don’t like certain policies. Of course, the converse is also true – check the declining polls on repealing Obamacare.
My criticism was primarily that the poll question erroneously assumed that the respondents knew “most” of the Obama admin policies.
I voted for Mr. Romney solely bc of Mr. Obama’s dividend tax proposals which would absolutely kill me bc of my large DD portfolio. As I noted in a post on 7/19/12
“ Note that most of the big Obama donors make their income from salary or 1099 payments –i.e. ordinary income - while the Romney donors are capital gains/ dividend guys much like Mr. Romney.
Let’s not forget that, instead of following my advice and simply raising St Croix’s property tax, Mr. Obama has made an absolutely insane proposal to tax dividends at the ordinary income rate for $200,000-plus guys, and to raise the long term capital gains tax rate from to a top rate of 20 percent. Add the 3.8 Obamacare tax on unearned income (if that is still on the books-I've lost track) and, according to some writers, high end taxpayers could end up paying as much as 43% on dividends.
An Obama landslide could sweep enough Democrats into Congress to make this horror story a reality.
While I have no idea what MR. Romeny’s tax plan is, I know he will be against the Obama proposal. That is reason enough to vote for GOP. “
I think I also acknowledged the Romney vote after the election but I’m not sure. You also apparently have forgotten that no one has made more substantive critiques of Obamacare on this Board than yours truly, as shown by the four part Demon in Obamacare posts. I just don’t agree with most of the cliche critiques that so enthrall the righties
Marikod, I challenge your statement that most people “have no idea what 'most' of the Obama Admin policies are” or that the questions in the poll were "vague and confusing". I don't think so. Many of us know what a lot of his policies are and many of us oppose most of those policies. Here is a list I compiled in 5 minutes and that is only because my fingers can't type as fast as my brain thinks. These are just the major issues, there are many more. I tried to play this straight although I do admit to editorializing on a few items. My point is that many of his policies are not finding approval in this country. In a recent compilation of polls, Real Clear Politics reports that 59.8% of Americans believe the country is on the WRONG TRACK.
Obama's Major Foreign Policies
Iran-Nukes (did you see today that their supreme leader again called for our death?)
Israel
Dealing with ISIS
AQ-AP
Iraq
Afghanistan
Syria
Yemen
Basically Middle East “Policy” failing
Russia-Ukraine
Cuba (lifting embargo, getting nothing in return ie: NO Freedom for Cuban People)
Obama's Major Domestic Policies
Immigration EOs and HS Memos which will all end up at the Supreme Court, imo
Regulatory overreach (especially at EPA and FCC)
Gov't sponsored energy loans to failing greenies
OBAMACARE a complete screw up that is costing jobs and $$$$
National Debt currently $18 Trillion and growing FAST. This is a BIG problem
Economic Policy = Jobs...Yes, I know unemployment is down but the labor participation rate is at 62.7%, a 10 year low (not a good thing) and is a much better tool for understanding how bad unemployment really is. This means many people are no longer looking for work so they are not included in the unemployment rate...BUT the participation rate reflects that many more people are out of work than any time in the last 10 years. It is our “Achilles heel” imo and if the numbers don't get better, the folks out of work will swamp the “safety net” system and it will fail.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html
I happen to agree with you that “many of us” know “a lot” of his policies. But that is not the poll question.
That does not get you anywhere close to “most of the people” knowing “most “ of his policies. “Many” and “most” are two different words. If a million people know “most” of his policies, that would be “many” but that is a fraction of the 300 million plus population. Not sure where “a lot” fits on the spectrum but “a lot “is not a synonym for “most.”
So, to challenge my assertion effectively, you need to refine your argument by using responsive words.
Now we don’t know if the 1009 people called were part of your “many of us” group. If the callers managed to hit the educated elite instead of the average person, I agree that maybe the poll has more validity than I give it credit for.
But I am delighted to learn that you personally understand Mr. Obama’s Iran policy. Perhaps you could explain it to me and Secretary Kerry, who testified a couple of weeks ago that the Iran plan is “not a legally binding agreement” but Congress can’t modify it and the US can enforce it. WTF? The details of the plan have not been released nor has the final agreement- so no one outside of the administration really has anything more than a broad inkling of the policy. Benji didn’t know either.
I also agree with you that many of Mr. Obama’s policies are unpopular. And many indeed feel we are on the wrong track. But my post was about the invalidity of the particular poll question, not any attempt to defend the popularity of “most of his policies,” a number of which I have condemned on this very Board
“But I am delighted to learn that you personally understand Mr. Obama’s Iran policy”
No, Marikod, I don't understand and that is part of the problem for me. I don't think we can trust Iran at all and as I posted earlier their supreme leader just today called for “Death to America”. This is a negotiating strategy? And of course, Iran is committed to eliminating the nation of Israel from the earth and just today John Brennan, director of the CIA affirmed that Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism and that is not on the table in the nuke talks. And regardless of what one thinks of Kerry, he appears to me to be a very weak player. Oh and BTW, that same Iran supreme leader called Obama's appeal to the Iranian people “childish”. How many Iranian people saw Obama's pitch? Since Iranian TV is state run, not very many. So, no I don't know what the deal is, but the very fact the the Obama Administration is floating an idea to have the UN approve the nuke deal vs the US Senate, well, that is a big red flag to me. I guess we will see what the final draft is, but it seems fraught with issues and the overriding issue to me is that if Iran gets a nuke the Middle East will go up like the tinderbox that it is. It would plunge the world into a darkness economically that would scar everyone, imho
I'd say his policy is to negotiate what most people would call a treaty or perhaps an arms agreement. And that "policy" is what a lot of people would disagree with. (bad grammar I know!)
..that the nuke deal is certainly the centerpiece of Obama's Iran Policy and I would agree with the pursuit of such a deal IF the details did not appear so troubling and our negotiating posture so weak. So, while I agree with the policy objective (in this case only), I disagree with the strategy for reaching that objective.
-- Modified on 3/22/2015 10:56:45 PM
has no dealings with Iran since 1976.
Next reality is US will never ever go to war with Iran, it is not Iraq or Libya that will start a world war. None of the European allies will go along with it. Iran is not a threat to a single NATO country. Europe, specifically, Germany, and France has extensive commercial dealings with Iran so do Russia and China.
The moral of the story is, Bibi has pissed of most European leaders and if the talks fail, not whole lot US can do especially considering the fact EU is still in a down turn and needs all the economic help they can get. Of course, this is reality and rational view which has nothing to do with BSC wing nut talking points coming out of Faux and co.
The only reason some in US takes a belligerent approach to Iran is Israel, nothing more
Do BSC Wingnuts always run scared when some mullah in a far away land makes threats? What are you? Scared little rabbits?
...two years experience as a senator, no experience as a businessman, is anti-abortion and anti gay marriage.
Has anyone ever been elected President being a state Solicitor General or Deputy US Atty. Gen'l? Is that the right executive experience?
OTOH, he was a Constitutional law professor, just like Obama.
So, ed, are you going to support Cruz and make the same "error" as voters did with Obama or are you going to go with the percentages in the poll?
-- Modified on 3/22/2015 6:27:29 PM
But I'll stick my nose in. I wish Ted Cruz would sit down and STFU, be the best senator he can be and stay out of the limelight. He won't listen to me though. I don't need a poll to tell me that he can't win a Presidential election, not now anyway. And BigP, don't ask me who I support right now, it's too damn early and I'm not tellin" LOL
Talk about 'straining at gnats,' and 'falling down the rabbit hole.' Let's cut to the chase! So, does that mean you believe Hilary won't win the presidency! 
-- Modified on 3/23/2015 1:48:47 PM