Politics and Religion

The Democrats will have trouble holding onto the Senate.
willywonka4u 22 Reviews 441 reads
posted

But this has zilch to do with Obamacare. It just has to do with simple electoral math.  

Every 2 years, only one-third of the Senate is up for an election. This go around, that one-third Senate seats up for grabs breaks down like this:  

36 seats are up for grabs. 15 of those seats are currently held by Republicans. 21 of those seats are currently held by Democrats.  

This means that Republicans have more chances to win Democratic seats than Democrats have chances to win Republican seats. Democrats must defend more seats than Republicans do.  

9 incumbents are retiring, and not running again. 5 of them are Democrats. This makes these 9 seats de-facto open races.  

Of the 15 seats that Republicans will be defending, every single Republican Senator represents a red state, with the exception of 1 race. Susan Collins' race in Maine.  

Of the 21 seats that the Democrats are defending, 6 of those Democratic Senators represent red states, and 5 of those Democratic Senators represent swing states.  

In other words, chances are quite slim that the Democrats will be able to hold onto the Senate. Their best case scenario would be to not lose any ground. The GOP should have an easy time picking up enough seats to make the Senate an even 50-50 split, if not take a majority.  

One down side for the GOP, is that Obamacare is not be political football that they once believed it was. Now that it's up and running, scare tactics really don't work too well anymore, and it won't poll well in the election. If the GOP can figure this out in time, and figure out a new wedge issue to run on, then they're chances are good for taking the Senate. But if they run on Obamacare alone, it'll hurt them.  

The Democrats will not likely retake the House. The House is so gerrymandered that the Dems will likely be shut out of the House for several more election cycles. Their best chance to retake that House probably won't come until 2018.

JackDunphy2089 reads

Now don't get me wrong...we've snatched losing from the jaws of victory on many occasions...but if we can somehow not elect any "witches" in the primaries lol or say something like "Every woman should experience rape once in their lifetime"...we might just win way more seats than a simple 51-49 majority.

JackDunphy490 reads

He has used it as a dildo to shove up the American people's ass 38 times for unilateral changes to O-Care b/c it's been such a disaster.  

After he lied to us about SO many things in the law, the least he could done was to grease us all up with copious amounts of K-Y first

...Why don't you have a problem with any of them?

Nicolle Wallace, a former Bush communications director who worked for Senator John McCain, said Mr. Obama should stick with success and keep using the teleprompter.

“I’d say for a guy known around the world for being as effective as he is at communicating, he shouldn’t change a thing,” Ms. Wallace said. “If that’s what works for them, that’s what he should do.”


-- Modified on 4/19/2014 10:59:51 PM

Pimpathy300 reads

Everyone knows his name... That sounds like he is fairly popular.

 
Many of the Obama Administration policies are not very popular.  I doubt if the administration is concerned about the popularity of the President during his second term. Nor do I believe they care if their policies are unpopular as well.

 
What is the opinion on Wall Street?

 
... and remember, MoveOn.org helped elect this administration twice.

It's the ab lib that exposes what a fucking idiot he truly is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24vRyrjiD2Q

Hold on a second, I can't hear myself

But this has zilch to do with Obamacare. It just has to do with simple electoral math.  

Every 2 years, only one-third of the Senate is up for an election. This go around, that one-third Senate seats up for grabs breaks down like this:  

36 seats are up for grabs. 15 of those seats are currently held by Republicans. 21 of those seats are currently held by Democrats.  

This means that Republicans have more chances to win Democratic seats than Democrats have chances to win Republican seats. Democrats must defend more seats than Republicans do.  

9 incumbents are retiring, and not running again. 5 of them are Democrats. This makes these 9 seats de-facto open races.  

Of the 15 seats that Republicans will be defending, every single Republican Senator represents a red state, with the exception of 1 race. Susan Collins' race in Maine.  

Of the 21 seats that the Democrats are defending, 6 of those Democratic Senators represent red states, and 5 of those Democratic Senators represent swing states.  

In other words, chances are quite slim that the Democrats will be able to hold onto the Senate. Their best case scenario would be to not lose any ground. The GOP should have an easy time picking up enough seats to make the Senate an even 50-50 split, if not take a majority.  

One down side for the GOP, is that Obamacare is not be political football that they once believed it was. Now that it's up and running, scare tactics really don't work too well anymore, and it won't poll well in the election. If the GOP can figure this out in time, and figure out a new wedge issue to run on, then they're chances are good for taking the Senate. But if they run on Obamacare alone, it'll hurt them.  

The Democrats will not likely retake the House. The House is so gerrymandered that the Dems will likely be shut out of the House for several more election cycles. Their best chance to retake that House probably won't come until 2018.

JackDunphy366 reads

But "Zilch" to do with Obamacare? Even for you WW, this is ABSURD. Have you looked at the polling on O-Care? Why dont you refresh yourself on Matt's recent post about it.

It is WILDLY unpopular. Another reason why incumbents lose off presidential year elections is due to the incumbent president's policies being unpopular. O-Care is at the heart of that unpopularity.

And its not JUST that it is unpopular, but the intensity gap between those who like and those that hate it is wide. Dems, for the most part, are only lukewark about O-Care. Repubs and Indy's despise it.

Barry's likeability and trustworthiness plummeted after it was revealed he really did lie about keeping your doctor. He is not considered honest anymore.

Both R and D internal polling shows O-care being a major drag for D's and you can see it in the ads being run and $ being spent. My OP showing the number of states now available for R's to win is inceasing each month.

The fact that O-Care is "up and running" is helping R's, NOT D's. Why? Because an adverse number of people are being hurt by the law as oppoed to being helped. That has been born out in the Gallup and Pew polls along wwith others.  

In other words, "spin" doesnt cut it any longer for Dems and Barry. People have lost their doctor, have lost their insurance they liked, have lost access to their cancer treatment center, wont see the $2500 savings per family but most will or have seen a hefty increase in their premiums, have seen their deductibles soar to $12,700, etc and the American people know it was the Dems that did all this damage.

They don't need another "wedge" issue as a weak economy, no leadership on the world stage, spying on the American people/press and the worst piece of legislation of our lifetime appears to be all the R's need for a wipe out in a little over six months.

followme302 reads

On the Senate side 51+ GOP  would be great.

As for the House side I’m confident the GOP will keep the majority.
One thing, which I doubt will happen but would love to see, and that would be for Pelosi to lose her seat to the GOP candidate.

 
Thank You  
2014 = GOP Senate and Hous

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