There is a pervasive belief in our world that an election year means an increase in LE stings as politicians try to look tough on crime to assist their re-election.
I've long questioned that belief; since literally every other year is an election year, attributing roughly 50% (or even 25%) of busts on a election seems like a pretty easy, but intellectually lazy, thing to do. The FBI-coordinated stings take place every year, election or not. And some agency set-ups go on for more than a year before that hammer falls.
Sooooo..... in the past whenever I've seen anyone say that we need to be extra careful because it's an election year, I've rolled my eyes but kept my mouth shut because I just didn't have the data to back me up.
Then today I saw a post by perfectstorm on another board that re-ignited my interest in the subject. He posted the attached link that shows the total number of prostitution arrests nationally, broken down state.
I have not done a statistical analysis (although I may do it when I have more time), and obviously there are other factors to consider, but in my cursory reading the numbers, I think they back me up that there is no real difference in the number of arrests regardless of whether or not it was an election year.
Your thoughts?
-- Modified on 12/7/2012 10:40:44 AM
I've long questioned that belief; since literally every other year is an election year, attributing roughly 50% (or even 25%) of busts on a election seems like a pretty easy, but intellectually lazy, thing to do. The FBI-coordinated stings take place every year, election or not. And some agency set-ups go on for more than a year before that hammer falls.
Sooooo..... in the past whenever I've seen anyone say that we need to be extra careful because it's an election year, I've rolled my eyes but kept my mouth shut because I just didn't have the data to back me up.
Then today I saw a post by perfectstorm on another board that re-ignited my interest in the subject. He posted the attached link that shows the total number of prostitution arrests nationally, broken down state.
I have not done a statistical analysis (although I may do it when I have more time), and obviously there are other factors to consider, but in my cursory reading the numbers, I think they back me up that there is no real difference in the number of arrests regardless of whether or not it was an election year.
Your thoughts?
-- Modified on 12/7/2012 10:40:44 AM
Every election season things heat up especially if it's a national electoral campaign for president,state attorney or Police chief. With no one hardly using the Yellow pages stings have increased...
And the numbers in the link you posted proves it. The numbers in each state go up and down as does the national numbers, but it seems random. If it was an election thing, there would be a spike every even year, and other than Alabama, I don't see that. So maybe it is true in Alabama that they increase the arrests in election years (except for 2010 where there was a big drop) but not so for other states in general or for the national numbers.
area, but La. sure as shit does. The politicians themselves and their little clans go as far as to make up rumors about the other side, and even use hookers to prove a point. As long as you screen the same way year round, you should not have any problems. So, although the NUMBER of arrests may have no direct correlation, the number of STINGS for things like prostitution certainly does. It's crazy how many people get busted all at once the month before election time.
-- Modified on 12/18/2012 6:15:04 PM