I saw a show on the Sundance channel this week called "Transgeration". A show about 4 college student transexuals. On the show, a woman from Cal State LA said that there were ~10,000 transexuals in LA and that 25% are HIV positive.
That is a huge number if it's true.
How did she determine such a high percentage of that population to be HIV positive? How did she even determine that there are roughly 10,000 transsexuals in LA?
Both figures seem extraordinary high, particularly the 10,000 figure.
... Did she work for Fox News ?
The figure was actually 22 per cent, and its from a peer reviewed scientific study, sponsored by the University of California and the California State Office of AIDS. The study was done in 1998 and published in AIDS Vol 14, in 2000. They studied people receiving public HIV prevention services.
as far as the number of TG girls in LA, the incidence is roughly one in 37,000, which translates roughly to 10,000, given that the population of LA according to the 2000 census was 3694820.
The reports conclusion includes this:
"Our findings should not be generalized to other MtF transsexual populations, particularly those more affluent and assimilated"
so, as I see so often on here, in another context, YMMV, but given the potential risks of the journey, everyone should really always wear their seatbelts.
FK
They are sampling people seeking HIV prevention services hence they are sampling people already knowingly at risk for HIV exposure. It's not an accurate representative sampling of the general population. Their inference only applies to transsexuals seeking public HIV prevention services. The authors of the study even admit this themselves when they say "Our findings should not be generalized to other MtF transsexual populations, particularly those more affluent and assimilated" They have no theoretical basis for generating the 1 in 37000 incidence of transsexualism. How is this number generated?
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Benjamin Disraeli
He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts – for support rather than illumination. - Andrew Lang
My history teacher said "figures do not lie, but liars always figure".
3,694,820 / 37,000 = 99.86. Not even close to 10,000. you are off two hole decimal places
The person providing the information was from the Los Angeles GBLT center. If you don't like the message, shooting the messenger won't change it.
FK
Much like a message I may not like could be true; a message I do not like can be untrue. Statistics is the most corrupt and abused system for diseminating propaganda. Questioning the sampling methods is never out of line as even when a valid mathmatic system is applied there is always an intial agenda or assumption on the behalf of the samplers. The appeal of the authority of the LAGBLT Center does not automatically lend evidence to a sound data collection method.
-- Modified on 11/3/2005 12:20:13 PM
I too saw the show. Curiously, the representative indicated that the purportedly high rate of HIV in the LA Transgender community was attributable to the sharing of needles associated with blackmarket hormones. While I'm not shooting the messenger, nor disputing that HIV is an issue in the community, Horizonofire is correct that the asserted number of transgenders and the associated HIV rate seemed high, and untethered to any study or analysis. Moreover, the representative's focus on dirty needles, and not unsafe sexual practices, seemed to be driven by political correctness and undermined the credibility of her statements overall. I'd be curious to know what the real numbers are.
http://www.caps.ucsf.edu/MTF.html
you will notice this fact sheet specifically addresses the risks of sharing needles in taking street hormones, as Raycee advised the rep she was doing.
There is also a reference to the study quoted above, which is consistent with the counselor's information. And the projections as to population are, if anything, underestimated. I had recently heard 1 in 37,000. which would total 10,000. But my research has shown estimates of 1 in 10,000 or one in 15,000.
I'm not sure why people are questioning this. I haven't seen anything offered here to factually contradict what was shown.
FK
-- Modified on 11/3/2005 9:44:01 PM
What is being questioned by your critics is your uncritical presentatation of flawed data. What percentage of heterosexuals or gays or even priests and nuns who seek HIV support services turn out to be HIV positive? If there isn't a statistical difference from the 22% of TS who sought such services and were HIV positive, then you haven't proven anything vis a vis the TS community. You have instead used biased statistics to stygmatize.
If the recent history of American foreign policy has taught us nothing else, let us hope that it has taught us to question the assumptions of putative authorities.
Those numbers seem pretty realistic! from among 20 transsexuals i personally know there are 4 by fact that i know are HIV positive and active doing the escort thing! now how many of the ones i know are HIV positive and Keep it secret? or havent get tested recently! it s Funny how sometimes you guys rate the most daring transsexuals who get into very risky sexual behavior as GFE ! in this Forum im not alowed to metion names But ... some of the t-girls with very good reviews are actually infected and spreding the disease! traveling across America with a sweet sexy smile and giving the "JUdas Kiss" it is very Sad but if you look into the reviwers most guys are always looking for the girls who dont use condoms kiss in the mouth Deeply and hard, lick ass, eat cum etc... im always careful when dealing with guys and dont care much if the guy comes back or Not ! my good health and life is more important than a couple hundred bucks! Guys who know me aprecciate my caring ways and will always return since i do offer a safe and always good time! remember guys behind every sexual fantasy there is a reality dont let it become a nightmare, Value your life think of your wife your family and yourself.
Those numbers are not realistic as a projection for the entire TS population. Your experience is drawing only from 20 TS escorts who you admit perform high risk sexual practices. You are sampling from a group that has more sex and performs more high risk sex than the general population. Even if your 20 subjects were drawn from the general TS population and not the high risk population, 20 people is far too small a number to form a representation for the TS population in general.
Bravo ts darla!
I think many guys want to do what they see in the porno movies ...
Take a look at reality........
You have clients that want you to push them from cliffs and OD them on heroin?
Of course there are infected Transsexuals!
Just like infected men amd women!!
Keep asking for cum in your mouth and bare back practices........any how...... you only do it once in a while........(ONCE IS ENOUGH)
Message to all:
PLAY IT SAFE OUT THERE!
If it can't be done safely, don't do it at all.
TA
Of course no one of us have bleeding gums
and we all brush our teeth with extra care
right?
How about for double the rate?
"How about for double the rate?"
Only if you promise to show with canker sores, gingivitis, and halitosis. It's triple the rate if you want to watch her shave with your old razor though.