Against great passing teams you need a disciplined secondary.
Troy is less disciplined than Reed.
I'm in a betting vortex on this one. I just can't figure which way to go. 7.5 seems very tempting to take with the stats I have seen. Thoughts?
I am conflicted. I can see either a very low scoring game where 7.5 is too high, or a game where the pats offense goes to town and 20 would be to low.
Their D is just good, not great this year. I think I will be giving the points, I think NE can hang at least 30 on the Ravens, and that should be plenty, even with NE rather suspect defense. Ok I'll just say it, even with NE's rather shabby defense. lol
in yardage given up, they are only 15th in points allowed. Classic bend-don't-break. Is that a good defense? No, barely average. But far from the worst.
I think the Patriots will easily cover the 7.5. But, since I never gamble on sports,what the fuck do I know???????? LOL!
But what the hell do I know, I bet the Saints last week and they lost.
Whereas the Steelers (prior to this years game) did not match up well against the Patriots, the Ravens have played New England tough. Obviously, they beat the Pats pretty good in the 2009 playoffs in New England. Even during the Patiots historic 2007 season, the Ravens had them beat. Only an ill-advised time out and a questionable pass interference call kept the perfect season alive. Defensively, the Ravens have been able to slow down the Patriots offense. If they can control the clock with Ray Rice and some well timed play action passing, they can keep this game close.
So initially, 7 1/2 points seems like a lot. But its why betting on the NFL is tough and ultimately foolish (hey, I am not judging anyone who does, I'm just saying that sports books make a killing on NFL wagering...) The problem is this game could be 17-14 mid to late fourth and the Patriots get a cheap TD and win 24-14...and its a cover.
I think you just have to go with the team who you believe will win the game and hope they cover the spread.
I think the big difference in how those 2 clubs fare against the Pats is the play of the safeties.
Pats will not light this defense up.
Pats are breathing a sigh of relief they don't have to play against Packers, Saints, or dare I say Steelers this year in the Bowl chase. Pats don't win SB this year if those teams were still in it.
When its all over, they will likely beat Tebow, Flacco and Alex Smith. Perfect for the Pats D.
Patriots did not play many good teams this year, and when they did; they got beat. Ravens play ugly football, but will beat the Patriots. Ravens have the D to beat up the Pats on the line, slow the offense, and as the Giants prove, put Brady on his back a few times and he is a different QB. Ravens will win.
Against great passing teams you need a disciplined secondary.
Troy is less disciplined than Reed.
simply picking the winner and hoping they win by enough is a tactic usually employed by newer gamblers and is one of the reasons that the NFL is such a tough place to gamble successfully.
That said, I have noticed I have had more success betting on heavy favorites (touchdown or more) than I have betting on the more closely contested games where the spread is 3 or less. This definitely holds true for me in the NCAA, where I routinely lay four touchdowns or more.
PS, there is a huge difference in attitude between the serious gambler and the casual one. As a longtime, rather substantial sports bettor, I don't get emotionally attached by any one contest. I know I am going to make thousands of bets over the years, I check my ego at the door and don't try to be perfect, my only goal is to win more than I lose. lol
That is one of the reasons that football tends to be harder for the average gambler to make money on than other sports. With only a 16 game season, and even shorter in NCAA, most bettors feel they have to take action on every game and are not as selective, nor do they allow for trends to emerge, as they do in sports with longer seasons.
If any of you wannabe gamblers want some professional advice just pm me lmao
my nickname is CHA-CHING! lol
The gambling gods smote your ass with a shellacking of your Detroit Lions.
Keep talking the big talk, but I warn you, it is sports betting blasphemy to brag about being "hot" and the gambling gods will smite you every time. lmao
I wonder if this post was better suited for P&R? lol
and besides "Cha Ching" sounds more like a name given to someone with eyes like mine. Your eyes are way too round to have a name like that. rofl
-- Modified on 1/19/2012 11:00:25 AM
I didnt say "Cha-Chink" dumbass lol
I AM a sports god. How could I possibly be afraid of my damnself?
And before I forget....GO FUCKING NINERS
With his heritage it's more like an endangered species.
It doesn't look like I have anything to worry about.
But I will agree with the old son of a bitch on one thing, GO NINERS!!!
Wasn't thinking of that.
Considering you admittedly an oriental, chronic gambling, addicted boozer, and full time womanizer, I didn't think there could be more than two or three around.
Haven't decided about the NINERS yet. May go the other way.